Who bought the excavator?
This year, whether in the month of June or from 1 to June, the sales volume of construction machinery has reached a record high. In the past market, the investment in the real estate industry and the large capital construction project is the two main consumption market in the past market. But in 2018, the two year-on-year data in the downstream areas were not as beautiful as expected. The Statistics Bureau data show that the national infrastructure investment growth rate in the first half of this year was 7.3%, compared with the 21.1% growth rate in the same period last year, the decline was obvious, and the current regulatory layer of the government's recessive debt has not changed, and the future infrastructure investment will continue to bear pressure. Who in the end bought the excavator? The reporter found that the mechanical substitution trend in the rural market shows that the consumption demand of the rural market can be estimated to be 40%-50% compared to the rough estimate, while the arrival of the renewal cycle of the stock market has also promoted the various indexes of the engineering machinery industry to be innovative and high.
From the data performance, it is estimated that the annual increase of excavator products will reach 60%, while the increase of crane and concrete machinery will be as high as 100%.
"From the beginning of the third year of the new year to date, the production line has basically implemented three shifts and overtime production." In July 17th, Chen Jing, President of Sany Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "31 group"), described the twenty-first Century economic reporter, the continuous improvement of the construction machinery market, the supply of enterprise products in short supply, the expected delivery gap of 20-30 billion yuan.
And last year is only the excavator "ride the red dust" situation different, this year, the construction machinery market, including crane and concrete machinery also set a new historical high, the industry is full of red, so that the construction machinery industry boom index is rising, staged the weak season.
To the market, the downstream infrastructure and real estate markets in the construction machinery industry have not imagined a boom. In July 17th, a researcher in Beijing, a brokerage firm, said that, in addition to the factors in infrastructure, this year, in addition to infrastructure, mechanical substitution trends in the rural market and the renewal cycle of the stock market to the market. The superposition of the two factors has pushed the construction machinery industry to new heights.
Out of stock! Out of stock! Out of stock!
Engineering machinery and other industries have great relationship with other industries, strong drive, long industrial chain and great impact on the national economy, which is also one of the barometer of the national economic development. In the past market, investment in the real estate industry and large-scale infrastructure projects is the two main consumer market. But in 2018, the two year-on-year data in the downstream areas were not as beautiful as expected. But the construction machinery industry presents a reverse cycle.
In July 17th, the country entered the dog days, but the hot weather did not resist the heat of the construction machinery market. Hubei lac Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd. is Xugong machinery agent, located in Shiyan, Hubei Province, around 9:30 in the morning, reporters come to the branch office, the head of Liu Yongjie has been talking with customers about the excavator order matters, waiting 6 minutes later, Liu Yong Jie is free to receive the next customer.
"This is the present situation," Liu Yongjie said, Liu Yongjie said sales continued to climb this year on the basis of the highest level of history in 2011, of which, in the second quarter of the off-season of the industry, the monthly average sales of nearly two months have reached 40-50, higher than the previous average.
In the Shiyan white wave Economic Development Zone, the shop of the Wuhan Jiuzhou Dragon Engineering Machinery Co., Ltd., which is the agent of the Sany excavator, only sees 2 receptionists busy, "other people are out to negotiate or follow up the business." Store sales personnel introduced, in the past 2 months, stores can sell around 9 excavators per month, unexpected.
The heat of sales in Shiyan market is only a microcosm of the boom in China's construction machinery industry.
China engineering machinery industry association mining machinery branch industry data show that the 25 mainframe manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in 1-6 months of 2018, total sales of various types of mining machinery products 120123, up 60% year on year.
Wind data show that in 1-5 months of this year, China's total sales of loaders totaled 49278 units, 13461 of truck cranes and 3774 of bulldozers, all of which have reached a record high. That is to say, after the rebound in 2016, the total sales volume, sales volume and enterprise profit rate of China's construction machinery industry have set a new high.
"We have been out of stock for some time," Chen Jing said in July 17th. The main products include lifting appliances, pump trucks and large excavator products.
Rural market force
During the rebound period from 2016 to 2017, the output of excavators increased significantly, while the output of concrete and cranes increased slightly.
"This is a normal performance." The above industry researchers also said that the downstream industry generally first used excavators for earth and stone processing, and then entered the follow-up construction, so the follow-up product's warming cycle is relatively lagging. From the data performance, it is estimated that the annual increase of excavator products will reach 60%, while the increase of crane and concrete machinery will be as high as 100%.
The market of the rural areas as the main position is one of the driving forces for China's construction machinery industry to continue to be better, and it is also an important factor that is different from the previous cycle of rising industry boom this year.
"Before, the road expansion of the rural market, the construction of farmland and the construction of water conservancy facilities are basically dependent on the labor force, but now the young workers in the countryside are seldom willing to do this work. The labor cost has risen sharply, which has caused the trend of mechanical replacement." The researchers say that among the multiple factors in this round, the consumer demand in the rural market is more than a rough estimate of 40%-50%.
Shiyan sales staff also said that in Shiyan, with the precision poverty alleviation policy continues to advance, the current rural projects, road improvement widening, infrastructure construction projects increased, a large amount of demand for excavators.
The upgrading of the construction machinery industry is another main consumer of the construction machinery industry. The life cycle of general construction machinery products is 8-10 years, and the sales peak of the last round is concentrated around 2008. In addition, with the strictness of the national environmental protection supervision, the product is also promoted. "With excavator as an example, there are about 1 million 300 thousand units on the market at present, and the total sales volume in 2017 is about 130 thousand sets, and the remaining gap is expected to be replaced gradually in the follow-up market."
Chen Jing believes that, including coal mines, iron ore and other mining resumption, the western region to build roads, railways and other needs, has brought a lot of infrastructure needs. From the point of view of regional concentration, the market of Yunnan and Guizhou Sichuan areas is the best, the East, the central and southern parts of the region, while the north line market, including Northeast, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, is relatively weak.
Take Shiyan as an example, the above reception personnel also said that in the two years, Shiyan carried out the traffic first strategy, and the big hand invested in transportation projects and infrastructure construction, and the construction of major transportation projects was continuously promoted and a large amount of demand was brought to the construction machinery. The excavators sold in Shiyan are mainly used in these transportation projects and infrastructure, such as the construction of the Han ten high speed railway station, the ten witchcraft high speed, the West ten high speed railway station, the rural highway security project, the urban and rural traffic integration construction and so on.
Compared to the past, the current industry is healthier, "in 2011, there are more than 100 engineering machinery enterprises in the country, and even some consumer goods enterprises have entered the construction machinery market." In July 17th, Chen Jing said, after the last round of shuffling, only more than 20 companies survived, raising the concentration of the industry, thus reflecting the greater demand for the enterprises.
Under the superposition of these factors, the structure of subdivision products has also changed quietly.
"From the customer base of Sany, small excavators account for a higher proportion of sales." Chen Jing said that large excavators are mainly concentrated in the expansion needs of some enterprises. In the pump car, the general small, low price of the pump car sales increase more, and in the lifting machinery, large tonnage of the crane is mainly used for wind power hoisting, and small tonnage of the crane is more suitable for the ordinary market.
Wind control is stricter
However, the hot market has not allowed enterprises in the industry to fall into blind expansion and blindly formulate sales strategies.
"At present, although the enterprises are out of stock, the capacity has not reached the highest peak in history." The researchers say that the productivity of many companies is not as high as they have imagined, and the shortage of some companies may be related to the inaccuracy of market forecasts at the beginning of last year. Nevertheless, enterprises are still unwilling to blindly resume production or expand production.
The prudent strategy is also embodied in sales. In July 17th, Chen Jing also said, in the pre sale stage, the 31 group through the wind control information means, to understand the customer's credit information in advance, in the sale of customers to monitor the business situation, and in the after-sale phase strictly controlled the overdue rate, "our overdue rate is less than 2%, very low". Chen Jing said.
Not only that, the zero down payment leveraged sales strategy that used to be seen everywhere in the market has basically disappeared, "on the other hand, the proportion of down payment is basically controlled by more than 3, and some are up to 5." In July 17th, the researchers said that in terms of account management, enterprises would also shorten their accounts as much as possible, and most accounts would not exceed 2 years. Even if there are individual enterprises in the market gradually using low threshold sales strategy to seize the market, other leading enterprises will no longer follow suit.
This prudent and rational marketing strategy makes the customers in the current market relatively high quality, credit qualification is much better than the past, and it has also reduced the bad debt problems that had been dragging down the industry.
For future market prediction, the industry is also relatively cautious. Chen Jing said that the future market is difficult to slide, but will enter a relatively stable cycle. From the market point of view, excavators and cranes may be relative to the peak of history, and concrete machinery is the most adjusted during the last cycle. It is expected that the peak has not reached its peak, and the period of the boom will continue longer.
