1st local time, the first day the OPEC was expected to increase production, has repeatedly accused OPEC of pushing up oil prices by President Trump, warning OPEC to stop manipulating the global oil market.
A week ago, OPEC members and other major oil producers in Vienna, which participated in the reduction agreement, decided to increase their crude oil production properly from July, and OPEC "leader" Saudi Arabia said the participating countries agreed to increase the output of 1 million barrels of crude oil per day. In June 30th, Trump posted on social media twitter that he spoke to Saudi King Salman and proposed that Saudi Arabia may have to increase production to 2 million barrels a day, and the latter agreed.
The operations of the United States, Saudi Arabia, and OPEC and non OPEC major oil producing countries have made the world smell the taste of the world's crude oil supply and demand pattern, and both the price of us WTI crude and the price of Brent crude have fallen. At the time of the first financial reporter's release, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil were priced at $79.23 a barrel and $74.15 a barrel respectively.
"An increase in production agreement will reduce oil prices, expand oil exports, increase oil revenues, and help stabilize the situation in the Middle East." "On the supply side, OPEC and Russia and the United States increase oil production on the supply side; on the demand side, the demand side has reduced demand for oil on the demand side because of the impact of trade warfare," Qian Xuming, director of the energy project at the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, said to the first financial reporter. The price of oil in the future is roughly 50 ~80 dollars per barrel.
Will oil prices go down?
The OPEC Vienna conference did not specify a specific increase in production. It only said that countries would strive to maintain the overall agreement of the reduction agreement. From July 1, 2018 to the expiration of the "Declaration on cooperation", the compliance rate was voluntarily adjusted to 100%. But Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in OPEC, said the participating countries agreed to increase production by 1 million barrels per day. Russia, a big oil producing country, says it will increase output by 200 thousand barrels per day in the second half of this year.
Russian energy minister Alexander Novak (Alexander Novak) said that although Russia initially thought it should implement 1 million 500 thousand barrels of increased production measures, the current agreement to raise oil production by 1 million barrels "should be sufficient". In addition, he also revealed that OPEC and non OPEC countries had planned to reach an oil production agreement in 2019.
Qian Xuming said that at present, OPEC member countries have reduced production by about 1 million 200 thousand barrels a day more than the original plan, and OPEC finally decided to reduce the rate of execution in 100%, which means that the increase in production of OPEC may exceed 1 million barrels per day. OPEC said it would not make specific plans to increase production and distribution for each member country, because some member countries do not have enough spare capacity to help increase production.
He said: "this decision leaves some space for other oil producing countries to increase production, because OPEC is a loose cartel. Under current oil prices, the oil producing countries with surplus production capacity tend to increase production. This will help improve the supply of the entire international oil market, and there will be a downward trend in international oil prices for some time to come.
Ma Xiaolin, a foreign expert in international issues and a foreign university professor in Beijing, believes that the oil market faces the status quo that Iran is to be cut off oil exports, Venezuela's oil supply may face a steep fall, and Libya's oil exports are blocked, and the oil market faces the shortage of supply. He said: "but there are two problems at present: one is how to allocate the difference, the other is the current situation that the production capacity can not keep up. Therefore, oil production is likely to be more than enough for the oil producing countries. "
Iran's urgent response
In the face of Russian and Saudi production increase plans, Iran, the world's third largest oil producer, has asked OPEC members to "comply with the rules of the game and not take any unilateral measures."
Zanganeh, Iran's oil minister, Zanganeh (Bijan Zanganeh), chairman of the OPEC and Mads Rui (Suhail al-Mazrouei), President of the United Arab Emirates in July 2nd, said: "if any OPEC member countries are unauthorized to decide to increase the production of crude oil will violate the agreement, I remind OPEC members to comply with their commitments not to take any damage to OPEC unity." Unilateral measures. " At the same time, Iran warned that Saudi Arabia's oil production would be damaged by the OPEC's unified oil policy this month as Saudi Arabia raised its oil production to a record high.
Since the establishment of OPEC in 1960, despite the frequent disagreements among Member States, the oil policy will eventually be maintained and harmonization. Even if there is a war between some Member States, oil policy will still abide by OPEC's common position.
In early May, the Trump administration of the United States announced its withdrawal from the comprehensive agreement on nuclear issue in Iran, and at the same time resumed the sanctions against Iraq. Officials in the State Department have said that the United States is pushing all countries to stop importing oil from Iran by November 4th, and will not give national immunity that violates the ban on American sanctions.
Therefore, in the face of the US ban, the Iran government is looking for every possible way to protect our country's position in the oil market. Iran President Rouhani said that the US's attempt to besieged Iran is doomed to failure. The Iran government has the ability to cope with the pressure and difficulties brought by the United States. Iran's top leader, Ali Khamenei, also said that the attempt by the United States to create a split in Iran through economic sanctions is doomed to be "futile". All Iran people will unite to resist the siege of the United States and its regional allies against Iran.
In addition to reminding the other members of the OPEC, the Iran government also wants to maintain oil exports through private enterprises in the way that Iran's crude oil is filled in the international market by means of increasing oil production. Jahangiri, Iran's first vice president, told an event in July 1st that Iran would allow private enterprises to export crude oil to Eshaq Jahangiri.
Behind the curtain
In response to Trump's repeated demands for OPEC and Saudi production, and ultimately to achieve a goal, Iran's OPEC Billy (Hossein Kazempour Ardebili) complained: "no matter what Saudi Arabia does not have the ability to complete the increase in crude oil production, this requirement itself can be regarded as a command, that is, Saudi Arabia is required to withdraw from OPEC." "
Asked whether Trump's related push had affected the oil producing country's decision, Russian energy minister Novak said: "the United States is an energy consumer, and like other energy importers, when we make energy decisions, we will certainly consider the interests of the energy consumers, not just the interests of the energy producers." "."
He also explained: "in fact, before Trump sent the text, Russia's crude oil production plan has been determined. I can tell you that Russia has decided to increase its energy output to the end of last year. In February this year, we began to discuss the specific details of the increase in production.
"For the United States, we want to uniform Iran and do not want the market to be empty, so we want oil producing allies, such as Saudi Arabia, to increase oil exports." Ma Xiaolin said, "if there is room for Iran, it does not conform to Trump's policy, and it will continue to pressure Iran's breathing space for Saudi Arabia, Israel and other Middle Eastern countries."
For the future trend of oil prices, Ma Xiaolin believes that the era of high oil prices will never return. He said: "there is no saturation problem in the international oil market, but in view of the aging of oil equipment, it will lead to insufficient capacity. In the future, international oil prices may remain at the price range of seventy or eighty US dollars per barrel.
