The 2021 China Construction machinery marketing & Post Market Conference officially kicked off on November 29. This conference gathered highly influential people in China's construction machinery industry, built a high-level communication platform, focused on "adhering to axiom", discussed many opportunities and challenges in the process of adhering to it, and contributed valuable and knowledgeable wonderful exchanges, in-depth collisions and solutions, Together with my colleagues, I will observe the current situation and look forward to the future.
At the heavy forum of the conference, Yang Jianlong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and economy of the development research center of the State Council, made a key speech with the theme of "development opportunities of construction machinery in the 14th five year plan - views from the demand side".
In view of the theme "the 14th five year plan" construction machinery development opportunities ", I mainly share my research experience from the demand side around the aspects related to construction machinery in the 14th five year plan for your reference. Before cutting into the topic, I would like to share with you the analysis results of several graphs. These curves impress us that even though China's economy has experienced so many external shocks and impacts in the past, it does not have very obvious twists and turns as we thought, indicating that China's internal resistance to the economy is very strong.
Well, China's construction machinery should be expected and planned every year. We will first predict the short-term impact of the epidemic and external impact, but it is only a relatively minor aspect of our grasp of next year's development. We should pay more attention to the medium and long-term trend and law of China's economic market. The source that can provide you with the best information is the "14th five year plan". Due to the impact of this round of epidemic, China's economy has suffered a short-term impact, with an impact on the total economy of 5% to 6%. Later, production has recovered rapidly after the epidemic, and is now in a relatively stable recovery period.
In the "14th five year plan", we will devote more energy to finding development opportunities for construction machinery from the needs of medium and long-term development. Let's focus on some closely related areas.
First of all, what stage of development was China's economy in during the 14th Five Year Plan period? In terms of the speed of economic growth, after the sustained and rapid development in the first 50 years, China has entered the downward channel of growth rate. However, the total level of China's economic growth is continuously improving and has become the leading force in the next round of China's economic growth. This is "high-quality development", which needs to be supported by technological progress and modern economic system. Consumption upgrading leads quality life and drives new opportunities for industrial development: cultural industry, tourism industry, health industry and biomedicine.
Follow the direction of consumption upgrading to observe and trace back, we will find many industries that are not familiar with before but have rapid development opportunities. Constantly enrich, explore and observe these fields, perhaps it is putting forward new demands for our products in new ways and opening up new market space. A pattern of the whole country making up for its weaknesses is quietly taking shape.
Secondly, it is the development of the information age in which we are exposed every day. Information technology has two service directions: the first is service terminal consumption. In the scenario of terminal consumption, especially various consumer oriented services with mobile phones as the carrier, we want to buy things through the network. We want to consume information, play games and so on. The second is the digital application scenario of production service system. Deep integration of informatization and industrialization: among them, intelligent manufacturing and AI manufacturing are representative.
Therefore, I personally believe that marked by the 14th five year plan, the transformation of China's information industry means that we will take the informatization of the industry we have been trying to pursue in the past two decades as the development direction of the whole information industry, which is a very key milestone period of industrial transformation. Construction machinery is in such a new era of information industry transformation, so how to deeply integrate with information technology is not only our own development needs, but also creating space and conditions for the transformation and greater development of information technology through our needs, which is a win-win situation. In the past, we have seen that our construction machinery enterprises have made many positive attempts in these aspects, such as big data of construction machinery, intelligent mines, etc.
Another area is energy infrastructure. In the 14th five year plan, we put forward five major directions for the construction of energy system. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, there are new construction needs. We not only have the large-scale and regional integrated development of new energy, but also have the construction of large-scale energy transmission channels to balance the imbalance between China's energy supply and demand. Therefore, during the 14th Five Year Plan period and even the 15th Five Year Plan period, This is a very urgent topic. Why? Because China's energy demand is still in the process of total growth, not only the continuous growth of energy demand will face a security problem, such as the protection of natural gas, oil and coal, but also the bimodal goals and double carbon goals put forward the technical and industrial requirements of realizing these energy in a greener, environmentally friendly and efficient way. There is a more important issue, We can meet both security and low-carbon security, and we can use it. Therefore, China is in a very important period of transformation and upgrading. This period can not be covered by simply accelerating development. We must have a more systematic and comprehensive plan.
Therefore, we must understand and comply with this trend in the development process of construction machinery. The description of the 14th five year plan provides us with some directions. Extreme climate change has directly transformed into an energy consumption system. The sustainable development of China's energy will not only make continuous efforts to develop new energy, but also systematically consider the energy structure and the construction of supporting technology and industrial capacity, such as thermal power and energy and electricity. Obviously, in this technology of balancing supply and demand, we can't find a substitute for thermal power in a short time. Thermal power may be in a power source from the past, It is transformed into a role transformation process dominated by peak shaving electricity, which requires us to invest, construct and transform. It is worth exploring how construction machinery can understand, grasp and adapt to this demand, and even help promote the improvement of this process.
In addition to it, there is the construction of energy storage facilities. It is also worth noting that the cost of new energy has decreased rapidly, and the industrialization capacity is becoming stronger and stronger. In particular, new energy bases are built in pieces. Solar stations with hundreds of square kilometers are already common in China. Therefore, the development and upgrading of China's energy is inseparable from the comprehensive support and follow-up of construction machinery as an important construction equipment supplier.
Another area is the development of new energy vehicles. We have the best supporting system for the development of new energy vehicles in the world. From a market perspective, we have the largest new energy vehicle market in the world. These two advantages make us rely on the scale economic force of application cycle to promote our continuous progress in the global competition pattern. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has entered an unprecedented period of rapid development. New energy technologies, especially battery technology, especially in lithium batteries and other fields, have occupied a very dominant position. Understanding these positive factors can easily establish our confidence in the development prospect of new energy vehicles in China in the future. So, what are the corresponding infrastructure requirements? Including the charging pile and even the hydrogen fuel we are discussing, various new energy technologies provide us with a more stable, cheap and green new energy source.
From another perspective, construction machinery should also undertake many construction missions and responsibilities in the development of this new technology. How to make construction machinery design new products in the face of new market demand and new characteristic technical requirements also puts forward a very realistic innovation demand for the colleagues of construction machinery.
Energy is inseparable from the infrastructure system, especially transportation infrastructure. During the 14th five year plan, China's entire transportation infrastructure construction involves large-scale construction projects in eight aspects. Therefore, the construction of China's infrastructure, especially transportation infrastructure, has a very important construction mission in the "14th five year plan" and "15th five year plan". However, compared with the past, the new round of infrastructure construction has different requirements or directions. You will notice that each aspect is actually describing the next aspect of infrastructure construction, especially the three aspects of high-speed railway, ordinary railway, urban agglomeration and metropolitan rail transit, which are obviously in front of the expressway, This confirms that rail transit has replaced highway and become a new leading direction of infrastructure construction.
Natural gas field. Natural gas is an important option for energy consumption upgrading, but energy security is facing various challenges, so the construction of energy infrastructure is a very important demand in the next stage. As you can see, the west to east gas transmission project, including those from overseas and from the sea, is in a period of accelerated promotion and layout. We should pay attention to it.
In the whole regional development pattern, we pay attention to the formation of a new regional development highland. China's regional development has changed from a triangular shape to a diamond shape. Chengdu Chongqing district is the construction of a large channel in the southwest. In the past, in our research on the development of Hainan, we have been able to feel the scene of construction and development in full swing in Hainan. The combination of the industrial and regional economic development of Chongqing and Chengdu Chongqing in recent years has brought us too much imagination space and market demand.
After describing the urban development pattern and infrastructure, there are still some questions to share with you. The soaring price of iron ore has made Chinese iron and steel enterprises pay a heavy price. In addition to the impact of the short-term epidemic on the industrial chain, another factor that can not be ignored is the iron ore in the international speculative capital. For the safe and sustainable development of our whole iron and steel industry in the future, filling the iron ore gap has become a very important topic for the development of our iron and steel industry.
The "double carbon" requirements of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization and the safety development requirements of the industrial chain point to the same direction, that is, the development process of electric furnace steel. If the proportion of short process of electric furnace steel in China can reach 20% or 30% in the thirty years of the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan, this change can make a significant contribution to our emission reduction. This is not only our demand for double carbon development, but also a very effective tool for the development of our industrial chain.
Therefore, we can see that in the future, vigorously developing the recycling and utilization of scrap steel and the short process of electric furnace post based on this will become an important direction for the transformation and upgrading of iron and steel industry. So how should construction machinery enterprises understand and seize this opportunity? As an effective means to deal with the impact of external mine speculation at home and abroad, this topic has also received more and more attention. In fact, in the face of this kind of thing, we may have to consider the input and output of our investment in domestic mines from a longer time range. Also in the short board link of the iron and steel industry chain, there will be more and more capabilities and means to protect our industrial security and national interests. So in the face of such strategic adjustment, how will our construction machinery industry deal with it?
China's urbanization and infrastructure construction, including real estate construction, have basic and solid needs. Moreover, with the increase of China's urbanization rate, the urban spatial structure, urban layout and the quality development of the city itself are also changing. Therefore, the 14th five year plan has many new change directions in this regard, such as the formation of urban clusters and circles in urban development, and the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively mature. With it as the core, our Bohai rim, our Chengdu Chongqing, Our concept of regional development along the river and so on, without exception, will put forward different needs for the formation and development of urban communities, which can last for at least ten years. You can see that our current urbanization level is about 60% and about 80% by 2050, which can provide support and development momentum for the areas I just described.
