Looking back on the sales volume of excavators during the year: the first is high at home and the second is low, and the overseas volume continues to be large
In October 2021, the sales volume of excavator industry was 18964 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.61%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 12608 units, a year-on-year decrease of 47.23%; The export sales volume was 6356 units, a year-on-year increase of 84.82%
We expect that the annual sales volume of excavators in 2021 will be about 320000 units, a year-on-year decrease of about 2%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was about 252000 units, down about 14% year-on-year; The export sales volume was about 67000 units, with a year-on-year increase of about 92%.
Looking back on the sales volume of domestic excavators during the year, it is obvious that it is high in the front and low in the back. Our reply is as follows:
Since the second half of 2020, infrastructure and real estate have been rising all the way under the post epidemic economic stimulus policy. With the rapid increase of social engineering quantity and the gap between social engineering and stock construction machinery, the new sales of construction machinery have been driven all the way up. Until March 2021, the monthly sales of excavators reached 79000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.96%.
Subsequently, a series of real estate regulation policies restrained the real estate engineering quantity. On March 5, 2021, the government work report of the national two sessions pointed out that we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation. On March 26, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the Central Bank jointly issued the notice on preventing the illegal inflow of loans for business purposes into the real estate field, comprehensively tightened the supervision of business loans, strengthened the management in various fields such as pre loan, in loan and post loan, internal banks and intermediaries, and strictly prevented the illegal inflow of loans for business purposes into the real estate field. On June 10, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, warned that "those who bet that house prices will never fall will eventually pay a heavy price".
Affected by the rising price of materials and the shortage of funds, the quantity of infrastructure projects also decreased. On the one hand, in May 2021, the price of rebar rose to 6345 yuan / ton, an increase of 46%. With the rise of raw material prices, the cost of construction enterprises is too high, and some projects begin to be delayed or restrained. On the other hand, the decentralization of special debt is less than expected, and the capital of infrastructure projects is tight. From January to may 2021, local government special bonds were issued with a total of 584 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 72.9%. In addition, there are many rainy seasons in China in 2021, especially in Henan and other regions, which affects the normal commencement of the project. Moreover, the repeated epidemic situation in China has also affected some engineering projects.
The domestic sales volume of construction machinery showed a negative growth under the downward trend of real estate and infrastructure construction quantities. Since May 2021, the new sales volume of domestic excavators began to decline. The release of special bonds that the market hopes for, on the one hand, the release rhythm is frequently lower than expected, on the other hand, it also takes some time for funds to be transmitted to the project end. Therefore, there has been no significant improvement in the infrastructure end. In the second half of 2021, the domestic construction machinery market did not see obvious warming and tail warping effect.
Looking back on the export sales volume of excavators during the year, it shows the characteristics of all the way up. Our reply is as follows:
The export of excavators accelerated with the promotion of overseas epidemic. Since July 2020, the domestic epidemic has been controlled, the production and operation of enterprises is stable and the production capacity is guaranteed, while the production of overseas enterprises is restricted. Therefore, the export growth of excavator has been all the way up. In May 2021, the export growth rate of excavator reached 166.28%, creating a growth peak. Subsequently, the export sales volume of excavators climbed from 5000 to 6000, still maintaining a state of growth. The main reasons for the high growth of excavator export are: on the one hand, the production capacity of overseas competitors is limited, which gives domestic brands the opportunity to enter; On the other hand, the channel layout of domestic brands and the improvement of product competitiveness over the years have promoted the sustainability of their export growth.
Looking forward to 2022: looking for structural opportunities, focusing on infrastructure, re export and long-term competitiveness of enterprises
① Pay attention to the relevant opportunities brought by the counter cyclical adjustment of infrastructure construction
First of all, the scale of local government special bonds released in 2021 is relatively high, but they are mainly released in the second half of the year, which does not significantly promote the basic construction projects during the year. We believe that with the transfer of special bond funds to the project end, infrastructure is expected to usher in a wave of recovery in 2022. Secondly, under the pressure of energy conservation and environmental protection, the downward pressure on the economy will increase. In 2022, we may further strengthen the counter cyclical economic regulation policy to benefit the development of infrastructure. From the perspective of construction machinery sales, the base in the first half of 2021 is high, and the data rate in the first half of 2022 is likely to increase negatively. However, driven by infrastructure construction, it is expected to usher in a year-on-year inflection point in the second half of the year.
② Attach importance to the export market of construction machinery
2021 will be the starting point for a new round of recovery of overseas construction machinery. Take the United States as an example, its domestic construction machinery demand growth and GDP growth trend are basically synchronized. Since 1982, the United States has experienced four rounds of GDP cycles: 1982-1991, 1991-2001, 2001-2009 and 2009-2020. The first three rounds lasted 9, 10, 8 and 11 years respectively. In 2021, U.S. GDP will definitely recover, and U.S. construction machinery demand will synchronize with GDP growth, with greater growth elasticity, opening an upward cycle.
In addition to the United States, other economies will also pick up their demand for construction machinery against the background of economic recovery in the post epidemic era. Therefore, we expect that overseas construction machinery will still be in an upward cycle in 2022, with strong demand.
③ Pay attention to the promotion of long-term competitiveness of enterprises
The transformation and upgrading of domestic construction machinery leaders has significantly enhanced their competitiveness. According to the latest list released by the Organizing Committee of the global top 50 construction machinery summit in 2021, XCMG, Sany and Zoomlion have ranked third, fourth and fifth among the global construction machinery enterprises respectively. Their product quality is no different from that of foreign giants, and their product price comparison and service advantages are obvious. In addition, domestic leading enterprises are further enhancing their competitiveness through changes in electrification, digitization and intelligence, breaking through the global market with increasingly perfect overseas channel layout, and winning the global market in the future.
Investment suggestions and risk tips
Construction machinery leaders have their own characteristics and obvious advantages in valuation and cost performance. ① Sany Heavy Industry is leading in internationalization. Its overseas business accounts for a high proportion and is still growing at a high speed, or it is expected to hedge the decline of domestic demand and promote the overall performance growth of the company. ② XCMG's mixed reform of machinery is progressing smoothly, focusing on the improvement of profitability brought by mechanism reform and cost reduction and efficiency increase. It has great potential to tap its internal potential, or is expected to pass its own reform α Confrontation industry β。 ③ Zoomlion has made outstanding progress in diversified business. Its aerial work platform, excavator, agricultural machinery, smart agriculture and new materials provide growth points for the company, and the company has large long-term growth space. ④ Hengli hydraulic trenchless and overseas businesses are eye-catching, helping the company forge a stable growth curve and not afraid of periodic fluctuations. ⑤ Zhejiang makes great efforts to implement the preliminary determination results of the United States' double reverse, and the export may exceed expectations in 2022. It is suggested to focus on Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG machinery, Zoomlion, Hengli hydraulic and Zhejiang Dingli.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, the decentralization of special bonds is less than expected, and the expansion of overseas markets is less than expected.
