Recently, CITIC Securities took the lead in releasing the economic outlook for 2022. It is pointed out that in 2022, assuming that the epidemic risk is more and more controllable, the economy should continue the general tone of stable recovery. Structurally, it is expected that the trend of real estate will continue to decline, infrastructure investment will improve slightly with the support of fiscal policy, manufacturing investment will maintain an upward trend, and exports are expected to decline, but the overall range is not large.
"Stabilize currency and broaden finance", and enterprise costs are expected to return to normal
According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, China's overall economic situation is relatively optimistic in 2022. What will be the development of the construction machinery industry next year?
The paper points out that China's economic operation will really enter the "post epidemic era" in 2022. Based on the fact that the economic operation is still below the potential growth level and the transmission of prices from upstream to downstream has appeared, the consumer price may face upward pressure in 2022. It is expected that the macro policy will turn to "stabilizing currency and easing finance".
In 2021, construction machinery experienced three rounds of price increases, one of which is mainly due to the rise in raw material prices caused by the epidemic and the sharp rise in manufacturer costs. In 2022, with the continuous recovery of various production and operation and the implementation of the government's macro-control measures, it is believed that the market will enter a stable operation state, the production cost of the manufacturing industry will return to normal, and the price of raw materials is expected to fall.
Take steel, the main raw material of construction machinery, as an example. At present, when the price is high, it has decreased by about 1000 yuan per ton, showing a sharp downward trend. Next year, the price may continue to decline. Therefore, it is expected that the equipment price may decline by a certain extent in 2022.
Infrastructure investment and special debt increased, and the domestic market has broad prospects
According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, real estate is expected to continue the downward trend in 2022, and infrastructure investment will improve slightly with the support of fiscal policy. The government will use more funds to support the construction of major projects and prevent hidden debt risks. At the same time, it may continue to arrange the amount of new local government special debt according to the historical incremental scale, It is expected that the scale of new special bonds will continue to expand to more than 4 trillion, higher than 3.65 trillion in 2021.
The increase of infrastructure investment and the additional issuance of government special bonds are important prerequisites for the development of the construction machinery industry, which can effectively promote the development of construction, equipment leasing, equipment production and marketing, and play a certain impact on the construction machinery industry which is currently in the downward cycle.
Exports maintained high growth and overseas sales moved forward steadily
In 2022, with the improvement of vaccination rates in various countries and the repair of endogenous economic kinetic energy, the recovery slope of overseas supply side may exceed that of demand side, the overseas supply and demand gap will narrow, and the foreign trade demand will slow down marginally. This means that the export growth rate of construction machinery may fluctuate to a certain extent in 2022.
At present, China's construction machinery has a relatively complete industrial chain from complete machine sales, parts supporting and maintenance services all over the world, so it will promote the export of China's construction machinery to maintain a moderately high growth level.
In fact, the export performance of China's construction machinery has been very bright in recent years. Taking excavators as an example, the export has increased for 50 consecutive months. In 2022, with the recovery of overseas economy, overseas demand may decline, but it will not have much impact on the whole, and exports can still maintain a high growth trend.
At present, China's construction machinery has made remarkable achievements. The sales of mainstream construction machinery such as excavators and loaders have increased steadily, and the export has increased explosively. XCMG, Sany and Zoomlion have also ranked among the top five in the global construction machinery list. In 2022, with the continuous promotion of the "14th five year plan" and the dual cycle development model at home and abroad, it is believed that the development prospect of China's construction machinery industry is relatively optimistic, and multiple benefits will play a certain hedging role in the downward cycle of the industry.
