In the second half of 2022, with the country comprehensively strengthening infrastructure construction, accelerating the issuance of special bonds, and gradually easing the policies of the real estate industry, the demand for construction machinery will increase, and the sales of construction machinery is expected to usher in a counter cyclical rise. Although the investment in downstream manufacturing industry slows down, the advantages of automatic production are obvious, and the transformation of manufacturing industry will be the future trend. With the continuous improvement of downstream permeability, the localization rate will be accelerated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading stocks in various sub sectors.
Negative performance growth in 2022q1 and low valuation
In 2021, the trend of mechanical equipment was good, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 18.04pct, and the trend in the first quarter of 2022 was relatively weak. In the Shenwan (2021) industry classification, the performance of the mechanical equipment industry increased steadily in 2021, with negative growth in the first quarter of 2022, mainly due to the high base factor in the same period last year. In terms of segments, in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the performance of automation equipment maintained rapid growth, and the performance of construction machinery slowed down. In terms of valuation, the valuation center of the machinery and equipment industry has been moving downward in recent years. At present, it is at a historically low level, and the valuation advantage of the industry is obvious. In the sub sectors, the construction machinery industry and automation equipment industry are at a relatively low value level.
Construction machinery: capital construction and real estate double drive, construction machinery meets opportunities
The sales volume of construction machinery continued to grow negatively year-on-year. The sales volume of excavators has continued to grow negatively since April 2021, and the export has maintained a relatively high growth. In 2022, the central government will set the pace for steady growth and accelerate the issuance of special bonds, which is expected to be completed by the end of June and used in August. With the government's proposal to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction, the prosperity of the infrastructure industry will rebound. At present, the data of the real estate industry is still at the bottom, but with the gradual easing of policies in the real estate industry, it is expected to usher in a recovery. The construction machinery industry will usher in opportunities through the dual drive assistance of the infrastructure and real estate industries.
Automation equipment: penetration rate continues to increase, and domestic substitution will accelerate
The downstream manufacturing industry has entered the callback stage, and the investment in fixed assets has slowed down. The bank believes that the replacement of human by machine is still the long-term growth logic of the industry, and the localization rate is the main line of investment. In 2021, the downstream industry has a high demand for industrial robots, while the monthly output growth of industrial robots began to decline from 2022. The upstream core components servo system and reducer technology have reached the international level, and the localization rate has gradually increased. With the increasing penetration of industrial robots, the utilization rate of machine vision and laser equipment combined with industrial robot technology is also increasing.
In terms of machine vision, it benefits from the state's strong promotion of intelligent manufacturing and policy planning to help the development of the industry. At present, the localization rate of warehousing and logistics, metal processing and lithium battery industries is high, and the localization rate in traditional industries will continue to increase in the future. The laser industry is developing rapidly, but compared with developed countries, the penetration rate of domestic laser industry is relatively low. With the continuous improvement of the technology of domestic enterprises and the superposition of high cost performance factors, the penetration rate of laser products will be accelerated, and the domestic substitution process is expected to be accelerated.
Risk warning: policy risk; Capital construction / real estate / manufacturing fixed asset investment and expected risks; The issuance of special bonds is less than the expected risk; Risk of weakening export demand; Risk of rising raw material prices.
