The China Federation of logistics and purchasing announced on the 6th that the global manufacturing PMI in May 2022 was 53.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, ending the two consecutive months of month on month decline, but down 3.7 percentage points from the same period last year and 1.1 percentage points from the average value in the first quarter of 2022. In terms of sub regions, the PMI of manufacturing industry in Asia, America and Africa increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month, while the PMI of manufacturing industry in Europe decreased compared with the previous month.
Changes in the composite index: in May, the PMI of the global manufacturing industry increased compared with the previous month, but the index was lower than the average level of the same period last year and the first quarter, indicating that the growth rate of the global manufacturing industry rebounded slightly compared with the previous month, and the global economic growth has initially stopped declining and stabilized, but the recovery momentum still needs to be further consolidated, and the downward pressure has not been completely eliminated.
According to the analysis, the rising inflation pressure, the geopolitical conflicts that have not improved and the repeated epidemics continue to consume the power of global economic recovery. Inflationary pressure forced many countries to adjust their monetary policies, returning from "easing" to "normalization", which objectively slowed down the driving force of global economic recovery. Repeated epidemics have also continuously disturbed the sustainability of supply chains and industrial chains in various countries, and the supply side power has weakened. In addition to further pushing up inflation pressure, geopolitical conflicts also have an adverse impact on Global trade activities.
In view of the above factors, the economic recovery expectation of the world's major economic institutions continues to weaken. Recently, the United Nations released the world economic situation and Outlook report, which significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2022 to 3.1% from 4.0% at the beginning of this year. The International Institute of Finance (IIF) cut its global GDP growth forecast for 2022 by half, from 4.6% to 2.3%.
The China Federation of logistics and purchasing said that the unbalanced situation of global economic recovery is intensifying, and the linkage between economies is weakening. It has become a common problem for all countries in the world to keep a balance between economic recovery, fighting inflation and preventing and controlling epidemics. In the long run, global economies should abandon prejudices and continue to strengthen multilateral cooperation to ensure the stable recovery of the global economy. The stable recovery of the global economy requires a smooth supply chain, diversified trade cooperation and an inclusive economic environment.
