1、 Global coal supply is tight, and the conduction effect of coal price import appears
Global energy prices have entered a resonance cycle, and coal prices have remained high. In the post epidemic era, the global economic recovery accelerated, superimposed on the impact of the Russia Ukraine incident, and the global oil, natural gas and coal prices showed the upward characteristics of violent fluctuations. Natural gas and coal are used for industrial and civil power generation and heating, while coal and oil are mainly used in industrial and chemical production. The three primary energy uses are highly overlapping, with obvious resonance characteristics at the price level, and the overall trend is upward.
EU energy sanctions against Russia exacerbated the global coal supply tension. On April 8, 2022, the EU adopted the fifth round of sanctions against Russia, including the embargo on Russian coal. The sanctions plan requires that the EU suspend the signing of new coal supply contracts with Russia from the same day, and completely stop importing all kinds of Russian coal from the second week of August this year.
According to EU data, Russian coal accounts for about 45% of EU coal imports, similar to the share of imported Russian natural gas. The rise of overseas coal prices affects China's import volume, and then affects the balance of domestic coal supply. China is the world's largest coal importer, accounting for 23.6% of the world's imports and about 8% of the domestic output.
Domestic coal prices remained high and supply and demand were in tight balance. China's coal price has continued to rise since the second quarter of last year, and will continue to remain high this year, reflecting the overall tight balance between domestic coal supply and demand. In the future, with the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the resumption of work and production, the domestic coal demand is expected to continue to rise; Superimposed overseas coal prices are gradually transmitted to China, and upward pressure on domestic coal prices still exists.
In conclusion, it is urgent to increase domestic coal supply guarantee under the current situation. As the epidemic situation gradually passed, the domestic coal demand was promoted to resume production, and the probability continued to be repaired; However, the high overseas coal price, insufficient supply and high sea freight jointly restrain imports, which may lead to the tense situation of domestic coal supply and demand. Therefore, increasing domestic coal investment and production expansion will become a necessary means to stabilize coal prices.
2、 The investment scale of coal machinery equipment in 22-24 years is expected to be significantly higher than that in 18-20 years
Driven by the demand for new capacity and replacement, the capital expenditure center in 22-24 years was significantly higher than that in 2018-2020. According to our estimation, the investment in fixed assets of coal machinery equipment is expected to reach 150-160 billion yuan / year in 2022-2024, significantly higher than the previous 120 billion yuan / year. The growth of fixed asset investment is mainly due to the strengthening of production increase and supply guarantee, coupled with the arrival of the previous round of expenditure peak replacement cycle, and a new round of expenditure boom cycle of the industry is coming.
The rhythm of investment in fixed assets is still affected by factors such as equipment prices and new coal projects. Although our calculation tries to restore the essence of industrial investment, it will still be affected by many uncertain factors, including the coal enterprise's own expenditure plan, the construction progress of new projects, and the difference between the price of new generation equipment and old equipment. Therefore, the follow-up capital expenditure rhythm still needs to be further verified according to the actual situation. The above calculation is only theoretical analysis and discussion.
From January to April 2022, the growth rate of accumulative fixed asset investment completed increased significantly. From January to April 2022, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment completed reached 46.1%, significantly higher than that of last year. From January to April 2022, the completed amount of private fixed asset investment in coal mining and washing industry increased by 67.5% year-on-year. Overall, the completed amount of fixed asset investment in the coal industry has entered an upward cycle, which is basically consistent with our previous estimation conclusions.
3、 Coal machinery equipment industry chain
Coal machine, i.e. coal mine machinery and equipment, refers to the mining machinery used in the mining, support, transportation, washing and other production processes of coal mines. Compared with ordinary mining machinery, coal mining machinery usually has explosion-proof characteristics, especially coal mining machinery. The upstream of the coal machine includes raw materials and parts such as steel, motors, bearings, electronic components, hydraulic parts, etc., and the downstream is a coal enterprise.
Taking the hydraulic support as an example, according to the analysis and optimization of factors affecting the manufacturing cost of hydraulic support, the cost of hydraulic support mainly consists of plate, pin shaft, column, oil cylinder, welding wire, sealing, processing fee and random accessories. Among them, the steel plate of structural parts accounts for the highest proportion, accounting for about 43% of the overall price of the support, and the column accounts for about 17% of the price composition, followed by oil cylinder, pin shaft directly attached parts, hydraulic system, etc.
The downstream of coal machinery equipment is coal enterprises, and its start-up, production expansion and profitability will directly affect the demand for coal machinery. At present, the domestic coal enterprises are mainly state-owned enterprises. Among the 41 listed enterprises, there are 33 state-owned and central enterprises, accounting for 80%, and 8 private enterprises, accounting for 20%. However, China has a large number of coal enterprises, and the industrial concentration still needs to be improved.
4、 Coal machine equipment composition and "three machines and one set"
Composition of coal machinery equipment: according to the working mode, coal machinery can be divided into open pit equipment, mine equipment, safety equipment and electrical equipment. Among them, the mining difficulty of open-pit mine is relatively low, so the equipment has high universality. Open pit mining equipment mainly includes heavy trucks, dump trucks, scrapers, excavators, etc. Due to the difficulty of mining, the mine has higher requirements for equipment.
According to the sequence of coal mining, the coal machinery involved in mining can be divided into exploration equipment, fully mechanized excavation equipment, fully mechanized mining equipment, auxiliary equipment and washing equipment. In addition, both open pit mines and underground mines need to use safety equipment, electrical equipment, etc.
In a narrow sense, coal mining machinery equipment mainly refers to comprehensive coal mining equipment. Its core equipment mainly includes roadheader, shearer, scraper conveyor and hydraulic support, which is referred to as "three machines and one set".
The working principle of "three machines and one support" in the mine is as follows: the roadheader, transportation equipment and support equipment complete the tunneling of various roadways; After the completion of the tunnel, various coal mining equipment and materials are transported to the coal mining face through the tunnel. The coal mining face is supported by hydraulic support, so that the miners can work in a relatively safe environment. The scraper conveyor is supported and pushed by the hydraulic support, and the shearer is carried on the scraper conveyor and uses it as the track to move coal.
After the coal shearer cuts the coal from the coal seam, the scraper conveyor will transport the coal from the working face to the transfer machine, crusher, then to the belt conveyor, and finally lift the coal to the mine surface. When the shearer completes one coal mining along the working face, the whole set of fully mechanized mining equipment moves forward under the hydraulic support to carry out the next mining along the working face.
Through the combined use of roadheader, hydraulic support, scraper conveyor and shearer, all mechanized operations of roadway excavation, coal cutting, coal loading, coal transportation and support in the working face can be realized, with high operation efficiency and safety.
In a working face, one shearer, one roadheader, one scraper conveyor and more than 100 hydraulic supports are generally required. Therefore, in the "three machines and one set", the value of hydraulic supports accounts for a large proportion, about 45%. The roadheader and shearer have high technical content, accounting for 12% and 13% respectively. Conveyor equipment such as scraper conveyor accounts for about 10%.
In general, "three machines and one machine" accounts for 80% of the value of fully mechanized mining equipment, and other equipment accounts for 20%.
5、 In the future, the development trend of scraper conveyor is mainly reflected in heavy equipment, automation and intelligence
1) Heavy duty: with the increasing installed power and weight of the coal machine, the number of domestic mining areas with "one mine, one mining area and one production line" will gradually increase in the future. The length of the working face is about 300m, but the daily output is 20000-30000 tons and the annual output is 5-10million tons. This requires the power of the scraper conveyor to be increased to 2000-3000kw and the conveying capacity to be increased to 4000 tons / hour;
2) Automation: the automation of the scraper conveyor is mainly to adjust the parameters of the conveyor at any time according to the load conditions during startup and operation, the temperature conditions of various parts during operation, the cutting speed and position of the shearer, so as to realize "self-control", so as to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the equipment. After the automatic control is relatively mature, it can finally realize the linkage operation with the hydraulic support and the shearer, and realize the automation of the whole working face.
3) Intellectualization: the intellectualization of scraper conveyor is to realize the detection and fault diagnosis of working conditions through monitoring and monitoring devices. For example, by monitoring the working conditions of the power supply system such as the voltage, current, power and temperature rise of the conveyor motor, and by controlling the oil quality, oil level, temperature rise, chain wheel curse and the operation of the scraper link of the reducer, the future operating conditions can be predicted, and the equipment maintenance can be planned in advance to reduce the time for troubleshooting.
