In July 2020, China's construction machinery market index, CMI, was 130.88, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.09% (according to the CMI judgment standard, the CMI value in July was slightly higher than the expansion point of 130, indicating that the current market prosperity value is still at a historical high in the same month ).
In July 2020, China's construction machinery market index continued to decrease slightly from the previous month and increased year-on-year, indicating that while the domestic construction machinery market was adjusted annually by seasonal factors, the overall market was still relatively optimistic. As of July 20, the operating rates of Central China, North China and Northeast China all exceeded 75%, an increase of about 2 percentage points from the previous month; South China, Southwest China, and East China were affected by the rainy season flood conditions, and the operating rates were around 60%, a decrease of about 5 percentage points from the previous month. . On the whole, the operating rate of most regions decreased slightly.
In the CMI index, the inventory index reported by the manufacturer group increased by 0.4% compared with the previous issue, and the production index decreased slightly by 0.5%; the new order index reported by the dealer group increased by 6.9% year-on-year and decreased by 7.9% month-on-month. , The user price index for first-line market research is basically the same as the previous period.
According to data released by the Excavator Branch of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 mainframe manufacturers included in the statistics in June 2020 will sell a total of 24,625 excavating machinery products in June 2020, a year-on-year increase of 62.9%. The domestic market sold 21,724 units, a year-on-year increase of 74.8%. Export sales were 2,901 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. Among them, the domestic market sales were higher than our expectations of 3543 units. The popularity of the market in June slightly exceeded expectations, and the market is expected to continue to decline in July, but the industry's prosperity will still be the best level in history.
From the perspective of the market terminal, the operating hours of the domestic market monitoring excavators in the circulation field in the first two ten days of July 2020 increased by 7.17% year-on-year, and decreased by 10.26% month-on-month.
From the perspective of increased investment on the demand side, in the first half of 2020, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 28,160.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.2 percentage points from January to May. Among them, private investment in fixed assets amounted to 157867 trillion yuan, down 7.3%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 2.3 percentage points. In terms of chain speed, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 5.91% in June.
In the first half of 2020, the growth rate of investment in the mining industry reached -3.9%, an improvement of 4.8 percentage points. Infrastructure investment fell by 2.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.6 percentage points from January to May. Investment in some infrastructure sectors has achieved positive growth. Among them, investment in railway transportation increased by 2.6%, investment in road transportation increased by 0.8%, investment in information transmission increased by 9.2% (including 5G investment in new infrastructure), and investment in water conservancy management increased by 0.4 %.
In the first half of 2020, national real estate development investment was 6,278 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year, and an improvement of 2.2 percentage points from January-May. The floor space under construction of real estate development enterprises was 792.72 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that from January to May. The floor space of newly started houses was 97.36 million square meters, a decrease of 7.6%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 5.2 percentage points. The area of land purchased by real estate development enterprises was 79.65 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 7.2 percentage points from January to May; the transaction price of land was 403.6 billion yuan, an increase of 5.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points.
In terms of regions, in the first half of 2020, investment in the eastern region fell by 0.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.3 percentage points from January to May; investment in the central region fell by 11.9%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 3.2 percentage points; investment in the western and northeastern regions increased respectively 1.1% and 0.4%, respectively, fell by 0.9% and 2.5% from January to May. 22 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) achieved positive growth, an increase of 8 over the first five months.
In the first half of 2020, the growth rate of planned total investment in newly-started projects has further accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, and the growth rate has accelerated by 5.6 percentage points from January to May, which is a new high in recent years; investment funds have also turned from a decline to a flat level. The growth rate of budget funds is as high as 23.0%. The significant improvement in the leading indicators of investment indicates that investment is expected to continue its upward momentum.
In the June PMI index, the business activity index of the construction industry was 59.8%. Although it fell by 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, it was higher than 59.0% for three consecutive months. The construction industry's engineering volume has increased steadily. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 67.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than last month, and companies' confidence in the development of the construction industry has increased.
Judging from the aggregated information of all parties, most regional markets were still growing in July relative to the previous year, but compared to June, the overall market enthusiasm has decreased, although according to the same period in previous years, the market should enter the annual cyclical off-season , But this year's off-season is not weak.
Incorporating the excavator sales data and other related index data in June 2020 into the China construction machinery market monitoring and forecasting data model, we predict that in July 2020, the domestic excavator market sales will be 16,446 units, a year-on-year increase of 61.4%. Forecast data will be updated monthly based on upstream and downstream economic, investment and sales data, as well as immediate feedback from the first-line market.
