On July 28, the Russian "Independence" published an article titled "A New Wave of New Coronavirus Disrupts Energy Demand". The article pointed out that in the context of the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the world economy is encountering the "mother of all depressions." The article is compiled as follows:
For many countries and regions around the world, the second wave of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has changed from a threat to a reality. The European Union, Japan, the United States and some other countries and regions have admitted that they have encountered a new epidemic. The governments of these countries have restarted quarantine measures, evacuated people from affected areas and conducted virus tests. Experts believe that the new wave of outbreaks has wiped out the prospects for a rapid recovery of the world economy. This means that world energy demand will continue to decrease, and oil prices will continue to fall in the future.
Stella Kiryakidis, the European Commissioner in charge of health affairs, said: "In the past few weeks, we have noticed that the number of new coronavirus (infection) cases is still increasing." What she said was actually the second wave of epidemics. Some people worry that this wave of epidemic may be more terrifying than the first wave.
According to the British "Guardian" report, a new crown pneumonia case has occurred in Da Nang City, Vietnam, which is the first time in the country in more than three months. The Vietnamese authorities withdrew 80,000 people from the local area. The government requires local people to maintain social distancing and wear masks in public places, and prohibits gatherings of more than 30 people.
The outbreak of the epidemic in Spain is also very worrying. Catalonia, which is at the center of the new wave of epidemics, has implemented restrictions. Barcelona authorities demanded that night clubs be closed for two weeks. The Spanish government also implemented partial quarantine measures in the Segria region of Catalonia, and 200,000 people were affected by the relevant measures. Out of concerns about the new wave of epidemics in Spain, the United Kingdom and Norway have decided to quarantine all persons entering the country from Spain, while France has issued a warning to tourists who intend to travel to Catalonia.
Experts say that most investors around the world are worried that the second wave of the epidemic will cause governments to take quarantine measures again. Neil McKinnon, director of the Global Market Macroeconomic Strategy Department of VTB Capital, said that the signs of economic recovery in May and June statistics have disappeared, and the world economic recovery curve may change from a V shape to a W shape. No matter how the epidemic develops in the future, it will be difficult for the world economy to return to the state before the epidemic. Experts also said that they can now see "alarm signs that the economy may go down again."
The statistics of the United States send out such a signal. In the past week, the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits exceeded 1.4 million, an increase of 100,000 from the previous week. Before the outbreak, only 200,000 Americans applied for unemployment benefits every week.
Fabio Panetta, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, believes that the threat posed by the epidemic to the euro zone economy has not disappeared. The euro zone economy will decline more than the first quarter in the second quarter of this year.
More and more economists have reached a consensus: one should not expect the world economy to recover quickly. Frederic Jeanbont, CEO of BNP Paribas Asset Management, believes that the world economy is experiencing the "mother of all depressions" in the context of the global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. He believes that the world economy will experience a long period of depression, and the possibility of a V-shaped recovery is very slim.
Many companies and even industries are considering revising their business strategies to adapt to long-term shocks. The US "Wall Street Journal" reported that many airlines and catering companies have begun to change their strategies: adjusting temporary suspension of employees to long-term dismissal, and they have begun to focus on their main business and reduce production capacity. Many airlines plan to lay off tens of thousands of employees.
All this is like a terrible nightmare for Russia. Igor Nikolaev, director of the strategic analysis department of a financial and accounting consulting company, said: “The new crown virus has severely affected the world’s demand for hydrocarbon energy. As the economy slows, people begin to work more remotely and The video meeting has also greatly reduced the demand for gasoline and petroleum products. This means that the price of oil will not return to the level of 60 to 70 US dollars per barrel before the epidemic (1 US dollar is about 6.99 yuan-this website note). It can only be maintained at a level of US$40 per barrel or lower.” He believes that if the second wave of epidemic strikes on a large scale, oil prices will fall again. The shutdown of companies and the sharp drop in energy demand caused by the epidemic will once again hit the Russian economy hard.
