At present, China occupies a pivotal position in the global industrial chain. The outbreak of overseas epidemics is transmitted to the country by affecting upstream supply and downstream demand, which has an impact on the economy. In particular, the aforementioned regions with severe epidemics are also the regions with the closest trade relations with China. According to the data in 2019, China ’s exports to the United States, the European Union, Japan and South Korea accounted for 16.8%, 17.2%, 5.7% and 4.4%; China's imports from the US, EU, Japan, South Korea and Australia have reached 5.9%, 13.3%, 8.3%, 8.4% and 5.8% respectively. The current domestic epidemic has been gradually controlled, and domestic manufacturers have resumed work one after another, but overseas epidemics are still spreading and fermenting.
Machinery global industrial chain: many products, high proportion of export business
Mechanical equipment can be divided into two categories: 1. The attribute of industrial capital goods, as a means of production, downstream docking with general manufacturing enterprises; 2. The attribute of consumer goods, terminal docking with general consumers. The impact of the global epidemic, especially when the current domestic epidemic is gradually easing and overseas Europe and the United States and other regions are spreading, the domestic machinery and equipment industry is mainly affected by two aspects: 1. Companies that focus on export growth in Europe and the United States, overseas stage The decline in fixed asset investment / consumption demand will drag down the company's performance. The main affected companies include Zhejiang Dingli and Jiechang Drive. 2. The key parts industry that originally needed to rely on imports. Domestic manufacturers may usher in opportunities for accelerated replacement. The main beneficiary enterprises are Hengli Hydraulics.
1. Global demand: Europe and the United States as the core market, domestic low base and high growth
The aerial work platform is mainly used to replace scaffolding, hanging baskets and other tools to assist in ascending operations. The driving force for product penetration mainly comes from the two aspects of high operating efficiency and stricter safety regulations. The developed markets in Europe and the United States are the mainstream consumer areas: the number of possessions is about 60/30 / 150,000 units in the North American / Europe / domestic rental market. The sales volume is mainly updated in the North American / European market. The annual sales volume is relatively stable, about 134,000 units. The ratio of arm / scissor products is 4: 6; the domestic market has a low base and high growth. Sales in 2019 are 54,000 units, an increase of 80% year-on-year, the ratio of arm / scissor products is 1.5: 8.5.
2. Manufacturer competition pattern: North American JLG / Terex leads, domestic leader Zhejiang Dingli grows rapidly
In 2018, North American JLG / Terex revenues were US $ 2.479 / 21.24 billion, respectively, and were the world's first / second largest aerial work platform manufacturer. Zhejiang Dingli is the domestic leader, with revenue of US $ 245 million in 2018, ranking tenth in the world.
3. Overseas accounts for nearly half, if the epidemic continues to spread, demand is expected to be suppressed
In recent years, sales of domestic aerial work platforms have continued to grow at a high rate. As a domestic leader, Zhejiang Dingli is also actively expanding the domestic market and strengthening domestic growth momentum. In the first quarter of 2019, the company's revenue from the domestic market accounted for 51.13%, and the European and American markets accounted for about 40%. If the overseas epidemic continues to spread and affect production and investment activities, the aerial work platform is expected to be suppressed later, which will affect the company's overseas sales. On the other hand, the R & D of the new arm products of the company's department mainly rely on the Italian Magni platform, and the rhythm of the new product launch may be delayed.
