Discussers, outside the affair, should analyze severe feelings.
"According to statistics from the International Federation of Aerial Work Platforms (IPAF), since 2012, China's aerial work platform market has grown at an average annual rate of 36%. Sales in 2017 were about 18,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of about 50%; 2018 Annual sales reached 29,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 60%; sales in 2019 were about 50,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of about 60%. As of the end of 2019, the domestic holdings were 130,000 units, accounting for about 8-9% of the global market. "
The beautiful data is highlighting the great achievements of this industry. The capital that originally did not belong to this industry began to flow in large quantities. The hundreds of millions of financing news dominated the headlines, spurring one heart after another, eager to join them.
China's aerial work platform market is called the last blue ocean in the construction machinery market. At a certain point in time, later studies are true. However, nowadays, when the capital market enters arbitrarily, when the large-scale release of production capacity far exceeds the speed of market demand release, the squeeze effect brought about by the giant horse race, the avalanche of rental prices is gradually reducing this blue ocean market. Brought into the fierce competition of fierce competition.
1. The price freezing point stems from "Supply exceeds demand"
In 2019, the rental market for aerial work platforms is full of grief, and rental prices are constantly refreshing. Taking the 10-meter scissor equipment as an example, the monthly rental price has dropped from 3000 all the way to 2000, and extreme prices such as 1600 and 1200 are also emerging. In terms of the cost of the 10m scissor equipment, when the monthly rent drops to the 2200 level, there is basically no need to talk about the cost. After all, the rental business cannot have no idle period, and it is impossible to guarantee that the rent can be fully paid on time and in full. .
With such a terrible rental price, the leaser has to do it even if it loses money, but it has to rush to do it. It is because the idle rate of the equipment is too high. To flatten the fixed costs, it is better to collect some money than idle at home. And why is the idle rate so high? It is nothing more than the supply exceeds demand, the release of production capacity is much greater than the market demand, and the leasing companies can only carry out fierce fighting.
The key point here is "supply exceeds demand".
The current rental market for aerial platforms in China is still in an era of fragmentation. Large and small rental companies are intertwined and crisscrossed in terms of geography and scale.
When the price war comes from competition between oligarchs, it can still be called healthy, and when the price war comes from "supply exceeds demand", it can be called "morbid".
2. Needs stem from economic and social development
The development of the domestic aerial work platform market is so optimistic, only because Zhuyu is ahead.
Taking the market holdings of 650,000 units in the United States and 350,000 units in ten European countries as an example, if the current total output value of China's construction industry is 19 trillion yuan, and the use density of aerial work platforms is to reach the European level, then the market holdings correspond to The total scale will reach 155.2 billion yuan; if it is to reach the level of the United States, the total scale corresponding to the market holdings will reach 282.7 billion yuan, and the demand for space is huge.
This is also one of the biggest misunderstandings in the domestic aerial work platform market.
From the perspective of market characteristics, leasing of aerial work platforms is a very typical business cultivated in "economic prosperity". It can be experienced and flourished in economically developed areas, but it is difficult in economically underdeveloped areas.
From the perspective of the global market, the booming market for aerial work platform leasing is concentrated in North America, Western Europe, and developed regions such as Singapore and Japan, with large holdings.
From the perspective of the domestic market, leasing of aerial work platforms has developed the most rapidly in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, among which the Shanghai regional market has the largest volume. Moreover, these areas are far more than other domestic areas in terms of ownership or growth, and the concentration is very high.
It can be seen that the aerial work platform market is a typical "rich business" and has a close relationship with regional development. It can be said that it depends on economic development.
Per capita GDP reaching a certain stage and per capita disposable income reaching a certain level are the fertile ground for the expansion of rich and expensive businesses. It takes a process for domestic GDP per capita to reach the level of advanced economies. Promoting the development of the aerial work platform market at a rate higher than the per capita GDP development is tantamount to boosting seedlings. From this point of view, it is unrealistic to think that the market's holdings can grow rapidly to reach 300,000 units and 500,000 units.
Because the main sources of economic growth are different, the per capita disposable income level is more relevant. Never use GDP development or even population base as a comparative reference.
3. Horse racing, big fish eat little fish
With the continuous decline in rental levels, the aerial work platform industry, whose sales volume is still growing, relies on the rapid expansion and reshuffle of large leasing companies.
In a market with low entry barriers and extreme fragmentation, a high market share does not mean a high profit margin.
The domestic leasing industry likes to mention the joint leasing and URI of the United States, and it has rapidly expanded its scale in the capital market through continuous mergers and acquisitions and reorganization. However, looking at URI's annual financial report, URI's aerial work platform rental business has a gross profit of up to 40%, and can pay back in three years. It is because this business is so profitable, so it becomes so big; it is not because it is so big, so this business is so profitable.
Horse racing, share is the circle. The competition for market share relies on price wars.
Taking the wine industry as an example, liquor makes money for brands and beer makes money for shares. The product differentiation of high-altitude operation platforms is not big. Plus one is facing the confused Chinese construction machinery aftermarket. When seizing the market, the advantage brought by the price war is very obvious. Therefore, the price war has been accompanied by horse racing, and fierce price competition and industry integration are still ahead.
Cooperating with the horse race is the rapid expansion of production capacity.
Taking domestic manufacturers as an example, according to statistics, as of the end of 2020 to mid-2021, if several major domestic OEMs can complete the expected capacity release, a total of 98,000 scissor and 15,000 arm-type production capacity will be formed. (Note: The production capacity will not be fully invested in the domestic market)
Production capacity and sales volume are quickly matched by the strength of capital, but from one warehouse to another warehouse is not fundamental to the long-term maintenance of this industry.
The mismatch with the market caused by disordered expansion seems to be a bet. "After these days, take the market, a good day will come."
Fundamental logic mistakes can easily lead to divergences. The people in the game may or may not know, but they are all running on the unknown risk journey. Investment always returns to the essence of business, and doing business is always to make money. A traditional business that does not want to make money from customers but wants to obtain high returns from the capital market, the probability of success or failure is very different.
"The essence of finance is to exchange value across time. If you tell a story, you will be sure to succeed. Naturally, someone will give you money, how can you persuade him to give you.-Mou Qi."
The servant is in it, wishing all beings are lost.
