Finance Association news on April 13, in March, the country's final excavator sales data released, creating a new record. According to statistics from the Construction Machinery Association, in March 2020, 49,408 excavators were sold, an increase of 11.59% year-on-year. This number was 44278 units in March last year.
Of these, 46,610 units sold domestically, an increase of 11.24% year-on-year; 2798 units exported, an increase of 17.71% year-on-year. According to data from Sany Heavy Industry (19.400, 0.33, 1.73%), the price of Sany Excavator will increase by 10% and Zhongda Excavator will increase by 5% from April 11. Founder Securities (7.010, -0.08, -1.13%) analyzed that the price increase is partly due to the impact of the epidemic, the supply chain is tight, and production costs are rising. The suspension of production due to the epidemic in January led to a shortage of imported chassis resources; on the other hand, it also reflected that the price competition has eased slightly and the peak season for the industry has come.
Under the background of good demand, leading companies have taken the lead in raising prices and transmitting the pressure on the cost side to the downstream, which also fully illustrates the pricing power of leading companies in the industrial chain.
Hengqiang, the leading domestic manufacturer
In Q1 2020, a total of 68,630 excavators were installed, a year-on-year decrease of 8.22%, in line with expectations. However, the industry concentration has further improved. From the perspective of the market share of leading enterprises in the first quarter, Sany, XCMG, Liugong (6.820, 0.29, 4.44%) and Lingong's market share were 26.6%, 17%, 8.3%, 7.3%, domestic brands are all on the rise, while the market shares of Carter, Doosan, and Komatsu are 10.6%, 6.2%, and 3.0%, respectively.
Beyond expectations: small excavator is the main force
Judging from the structure of excavators in the domestic market in March, the sales growth rates of large, medium and small excavators were 0.15%, 0.36% and 18.40%, respectively, which was much higher than the average growth rate of 11.24% in the domestic industry. Founder Securities believes that the main reason is: small excavation is mainly used for municipal engineering and rural construction, etc., has a wide range of uses, and is less affected by the epidemic. The downstream application areas will first release the demand driven by the resumption of work, while medium excavation and large excavation are mainly used Large-scale projects such as real estate and mines have only resumed construction in mid-to-late March. Demand has lagged. It is expected that Q2 will be fully exerted.
The sales volume of excavators has always been the "wind vane" of the mechanical engineering industry. Founder Securities believes that the peak season of the construction machinery industry has arrived. The policy Dongfeng superimposed the recovery rate, the backlog of demand due to the epidemic situation was initially released, and the sales growth rate of the excavator industry exceeded expectations in March. It is expected that the sales of construction machinery in various categories will achieve double-digit high growth in the second quarter, and will remain stable throughout the year. There is a rising trend.
As the excavator industry continues to exceed expectations, Founder Securities has raised the profit forecast of Sany Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulics (69.230, 2.78, 4.18%) and Eddie Precision (39.120, 1.18, 3.11%), the core targets of the excavator industry chain, and continues to strongly recommend Leading construction machinery company with high performance certainty and low valuation.
