49408 sets, a new record was born again!
Recently, statistical data released by China Construction Machinery Industry Association showed that in March 2020, a total of 49,408 sets of excavation machinery products were sold nationwide. In March last year, the nationwide sales of excavators once set a record 44278 units at the time, and the latest data increased by 11.6% on the basis of the original record.
The excavator is regarded as the vane of the construction machinery industry. Previously in January and February of this year, the domestic market excavator sales were 7,758 and 6,909 units, down 23.5% and 60% year-on-year, respectively.
The excavator sales rebounded in March, which not only conformed to the objective law of increasing construction after the weather turned warmer, but also reflected to a certain extent that the impact of the epidemic tended to dissipate, and the release of demand accelerated.
Which type of excavator sales are currently the most prominent? Which demand is expected to further drive excavator sales? Does the organization continue to be optimistic about the future excavator market situation?
Small excavator sales increased the most
As work on resuming production resumed, the demand for excavators was gradually released in March, and sales volume achieved double-digit growth.
According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, of the 49,408 sets of excavation machinery products sold in March, the domestic market accounted for 46,610 units, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year; export sales were 2,798 units, an increase of 17.7% year-on-year.
According to the research report of Guoyuan Securities, the growth rate of large / medium / small excavator sales was 3.66%, -0.03% and 18.49% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth of small excavator sales was particularly prominent. This type of product is mainly used in rural construction, house reconstruction, and other sites where investment is small. The sales volume is high and the response to the resumption of work is the fastest.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that since mid-March, excavator sales have risen rapidly, and some models have begun to be out of stock. With the recovery rate of key projects basically in place, April this year may be the highest sales volume. It is expected that April Excavator sales increased by 55% year-on-year, and total sales in 2020 increased by 8.87% year-on-year.
As an indicator of the midstream of the industrial chain, excavator sales can reflect the strength of downstream infrastructure and real estate investment needs.
Data show that from January to February this year, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 333.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) fell by 30.3% year-on-year.
Correspondingly, excavator sales also declined significantly from January to February. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in February this year, the 24 excavator manufacturers included in the statistics sold a total of 9,280 excavators of various types, a year-on-year decrease of 50.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 6,909 units, a year-on-year decrease of 60%.
The 25 excavator manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in January 2020 sold a total of 9,942 units of various products, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%, of which the domestic market sales were 7,758 units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%.
Ge Xin, deputy director of the Lange Steel Research Center, told the Daily Economic News reporter that large and medium-sized excavators are mainly used for infrastructure construction and large-scale construction projects, while small excavators are mainly used for farmland, garden and municipal engineering construction. From the sales of excavators in the first quarter, it can be seen that the resumption of major domestic projects is still slightly insufficient, so with the rapid progress of various projects in the later period, there is still a large room for growth in the sales of excavators.
Ge Xin said that the construction machinery market will heat up rapidly in the second quarter, mainly because the epidemic has caused a lot of construction progress to lag behind seriously, and there is a demand for hurrying work in the market, so the sales of excavators may exceed market expectations. An increase of 40%, of which sales in April are expected to increase by 50%.
Resumption of major projects is expected to boost the follow-up market
The former chief researcher of the Evergrande Research Institute, Luo Zhiheng, analyzed to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the sales of excavators in March increased year-on-year, mainly due to the accelerated progress of resumption of production.
Since March, when the situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control has improved significantly, the policy objectives have been adjusted to coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, focusing on smooth supply cycles. Recent advance indicators such as PMI recovery, high-frequency indicators such as blast furnace operating rate and increased coal consumption for power generation, etc., all reflect the further acceleration of resumption of production.
Luo Zhiheng said that the current issuance of special bonds is accelerating, and local governments are accelerating the construction of projects to ensure growth and employment. From the perspective of the type of excavator, the sales growth rate of small excavators is the most significant, reaching 18.4%, which is related to solving the employment of some migrant workers and accelerating the construction of rural infrastructure.
Wang Jing, an analyst at Lange Steel Research Center, analyzed to the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that sales of excavators rebounded in March and were mainly driven by domestic sales, indicating that domestic demand remained high, indicating that the start of downstream projects continued to resume It is related to the rapid resumption of small projects such as old reform and rural construction.
What is the future trend of excavator sales? Luo Zhiheng believes that the current resumption of production and production continues to accelerate, coupled with policies such as stable infrastructure growth, in order to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the economy, April excavator sales may continue to rise.
The reporter noted that a report recently released by Kearney Management Consulting Company shows that the demand brought by the new infrastructure may reshape the product layout of the construction machinery industry. For the construction of small projects in cities, such as new energy charging piles, 5G base station construction, etc., the demand for small and micro excavators is expected to have a boosting effect.
