The semi-annual "Global Economic Outlook" released by the World Bank on Monday stated that due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the global economy will shrink by about 5.2% in 2020, becoming the worst economic recession since the Second World War.
The World Bank said that even during the recession after the Great Depression and the two world wars, not so many countries immediately fell into recession.
Compared with the global economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April, the World Bank’s estimates are more pessimistic, which also partially reflects the intensification of the economic impact of the epidemic since April. At that time, the IMF predicted that the global economy would contract by 3% this year.
The World Bank pointed out that the countries with the most severe epidemics, as well as those that rely mainly on trade, tourism, commodity exports and external financing, will be the hardest hit.
Although the degree of impact varies from region to region, in the face of external shocks, all the existing weak links in emerging markets and developing economies may be further amplified. In addition, the disruption of education and basic medical services may have a lasting impact on the development of human capital.
The World Bank stated that assuming that advanced economies will be able to overcome the epidemic in the middle of this year and emerging markets and developing economies later, ending the prevention and control measures, it is expected that the adverse effects of the first half of the year should be mitigated in the second half of the year, and financial markets Can return to the right track, global growth is expected to rebound to 4.2% in 2021, of which developed economies grew 3.9%, emerging markets and developing economies rebounded 4.6%. But the World Bank reminded that this forecast is highly uncertain and the downside risks dominate.
Specifically, the World Bank predicts that the US economy will shrink by 6.1% in 2020 and will grow by 4% next year; the euro zone will shrink by 9.1% this year and grow by 4.5% next year. The agency said that China will be one of the few countries to expand this year, with an expected growth rate of 1% and a sharp rebound of 6.9% in 2021.
The agency said in its report that because people have to stay at home to stop the spread of the virus, it expressed support for some countries' fiscal policies that prioritized salary support and unemployment relief, but also pointed out that the government has more to do.
"If we look for experience from history, then the economy may decline further in the future, which means that policymakers may need to take other measures to support economic activities," said Ayhan Kose, head of the World Bank's forecasting department.
As of 7:20 in the morning on Tuesday, Beijing time, according to the real-time tracking data of the outbreak of Johns Hopkins University, the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world was 7085894, and 405170 people died. At present, developed countries such as the United States and Europe are gradually reopening their economic activities, while most emerging economies are in the stage of an increasingly severe epidemic. The number of confirmed cases in Brazil, Russia, Mexico, India and Peru has grown rapidly in recent weeks.
