In May, the sales volume of construction machinery exceeded expectations again. The current industry maintains prosperity, the quality of operations is good, and the concentration of the industry has increased. In particular, the current valuation of several leading companies is 10-12 times, with a margin of safety. Benefiting from loose monetary policy, as well as the landing of local debt funds and economic shortcomings since the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected that the industry will maintain a prosperous situation in 2020-2021, and the second quarter of this year's performance will increase significantly. The annual revenue growth target of major leading host companies is 20-30%, and we expect gross profit margins to increase; hydraulic parts leaders Hengli and Aidi benefit from accelerated domestic substitution and new products grow faster. The construction machinery industry performance forecast has the possibility of upward adjustment, and continues to strongly recommend Sany, China United, Hengli, and Eddy.
The sales volume of excavators in May was 68% year-on-year, exceeding expectations (the industry generally expected 50%). According to the statistics of the Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 excavator manufacturers that included the statistics in May sold a total of 31,744 excavators of various types, an increase of 68% year-on-year; of which 29521 were domestic, an increase of 76.3% year-on-year; 2223 were exported, an increase of 3.25 year-on-year %. From January to May, a total of 145,800 excavators were sold, an increase of 19.4% year-on-year; of which 134169 were domestic, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year; 11631 were exported, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year. From the perspective of product structure, the rapid growth of small excavation is mainly affected by labor substitution, rural construction and the implementation of infrastructure construction in various regions. Large excavation and middle excavation are greatly affected by investment. The fluctuation is relatively obvious, and the decline of large excavation is relatively large.
The reason for the rapid growth of excavator sales is that the market fell sharply in February, resulting in delays in market orders and insufficient production capacity. Many OEMs are out of stock, and the shortage has gradually disappeared since May, and the original market trend has gradually recovered in June and July. . In addition, the downstream infrastructure and real estate investment (old relay shed reform) are good, and the total demand has increased, especially for infrastructure: the amount of new special bonds from January to April totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, from the new special bonds for infrastructure Judging from the proportion of project funds, the main projects are transportation (railroad, rail transit, toll road), hospital school construction, traditional industrial park, ecological environmental protection, municipal construction, new infrastructure, etc. Among them, the proportion of investment in infrastructure is 69% (including 6% of new infrastructure, excluding hospitals), which greatly exceeds 24% of last year. Looking forward to the excavator industry throughout the year, this year is expected to maintain 20-30% growth, exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year. The main reasons are: ① The demand for environmental protection is relatively large, and many places implement the delineation of high-emission areas to form new demand; ② Infrastructure remains stable There is a rise in demand to stabilize the excavator market. The construction of new countryside and urbanization has driven the rapid growth of small excavation; ③ the application of new technologies has brought an upgrade in marketing methods; ④ the multi-functional application of excavators is becoming more and more common.
Loader sales maintained steady growth, and exports fell sharply. The 22 loader manufacturers included in the statistics in May sold a total of 12,769 units of various loaders, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year. Among them: 1,2018 units of loader of 3 tons and above were sold, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. The total sales volume was 11,425 units in the domestic market, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%; export sales were 1,344 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%. From January to May, a total of 53,712 units of various types of loaders were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 3.08%. The total sales volume was 44230 units in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 2.41%; export sales were 9482 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.12%.
The sales momentum of construction machinery has spread from excavators to other varieties. Although the sales of the pump truck industry declined in the first quarter, according to the grassroots survey and forecast, the pump truck industry grew by about 70-80% in April, and it is expected to maintain a growth of about 70% from May to June. The update of the pump truck has just begun, and the market just started last year. It is expected to maintain growth in the next two years. From the increase in the sales scale and proportion of the pump truck, it can be expected to increase the gross profit margin of Sany and Zoomlion. We expect the sales of pump trucks and truck cranes of several leading companies to increase by about 70% in May. Therefore, the hot sales situation has spread from small digging to pump trucks and cranes, indicating that it is not only a labor replacement, but also a strong demand. This can also be verified from the number of hours of operation tracked by the stock equipment.
The performance forecast is expected to be raised and maintain the industry recommendation rating. The current industry maintains prosperity, the quality of operations is good, and the concentration of the industry has increased, especially the current valuation of several leading companies is 10-12 times, with a margin of safety, and performance forecasts may be raised. Continue to strongly recommend. Benefiting from loose monetary policy, as well as the landing of local debt funds and economic shortcomings since the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected that the industry will maintain a prosperous situation in 2020-2021, and the second quarter of this year's performance will increase significantly. The revenue growth target of major leading host companies is 20-30%, and it is expected that the gross profit margin will increase; hydraulic parts leaders Hengli and Aidi benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution, and new products such as pumps and valves grow faster. From the perspective of the company's long-term investment value, Sany Heavy Industry and Hengli Hydraulics have outstanding competitive advantages, a certain degree of smoothing of the cycle, and stable dividends are also expected to increase valuations; from the marginal improvement point of view, Zhonglian Heavy Industry's market share has rebounded. This year it is growing faster. Featured recommendations: Sany, China United, Hengli, Eddy.
