According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in May 2020, the 25 mainframe manufacturers included in the statistics sold a total of 31,744 sets of various excavation machinery products, a year-on-year increase of 68%, far exceeding industry expectations (50%). From January to May, the sales volume of excavators was 145,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%.
In the first two months of this year, due to the Spring Festival and epidemic situation, my country's excavator sales fell sharply year-on-year. In February, the growth rate of excavator sales fell below 50% year-on-year. Since March, with the increased efforts to resume production and the recovery of China's infrastructure investment, excavator sales have maintained a good momentum, hitting a record high sales volume in the month from March to May, and the year-on-year growth rate was positive for three consecutive months. In 2 months, the growth rate exceeded 50%, and the popular models of major brand manufacturers were "booked as soon as they went online and shipped away."
Regarding the trend of the excavator market in June and the whole year, and the sales volume of major construction machinery companies in 2020, major research institutions have conducted analysis and predictions. Mysteel summarizes the views of some organizations.
According to the prediction points of the above major institutions, the following important information can be summarized:
First, it is expected that the growth rate of excavator sales in June will remain above 50%. Among them, domestic excavator sales may reach more than 60%. Basically, all analysts are optimistic about the excavator sales in 2020, and it is generally expected that the annual excavator sales will increase by about 20% year-on-year.
Second, the market share of leading construction machinery companies is still increasing. When predicting related companies in the construction machinery industry, everyone thinks that the competitiveness of domestic leading companies will continue to increase, and the performance of leading companies in the industry still has room for growth; Sany excavator market share is still increasing, and the annual sales growth rate is expected to reach 10 %the above.
Third, infrastructure, renewal, and environmental protection are the three major factors that support the boom of the construction machinery industry throughout 2020. The major institutions' expectations for the construction machinery industry to maintain a high prosperity in 2020 are mainly based on the following three major factors:
First, environmental protection tightens and accelerates the elimination of old equipment. Huatai Securities mentioned that since 2020, parts of the country have successively implemented the National IV standard for non-road mobile machinery, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of old equipment. According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, as of June 8, over 100 cities across the country have designated forbidden areas for non-road mobile machinery such as excavators.
The second is to provide solid support for the prosperity of the industry. Dongxing Securities estimates that the inventory update demand in 2020 can support at least 100,000 units of sales; 2021-2025, the potential replacement demand is about 700,000 units; the 2020-2022, the replacement demand is 106,600 units, 161,200 units, respectively , 197,300 units.
The third is to give full play to the role of infrastructure support. In 2020, my country's economy is in a downward path, superimposed on the impact of the epidemic on the economy, and counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been introduced one after another. Haitong Securities mentioned that after the two conferences, new construction projects gradually landed, and infrastructure investment is expected to rebound further. Counter-cyclical investment will fully drive infrastructure recovery.
In summary, the construction machinery industry will still maintain a high prosperity in 2020. Among them, the sales volume of excavators in June will still maintain a growth rate of more than 50%, and the overall trend of "off season is not weak" in the third quarter. The sales volume of excavators is expected to increase by 10%-20% year-on-year.
