May excavator sales innovation high!
"From the current data, the number of excavator sales this year is likely to reach a record high. Some places are still waiting for the goods. " In June 13th, Lv Ying, Deputy Secretary General of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said about the current sales situation of excavators.
According to the latest data of the excavator branch of China Construction Machinery Association, the total sales volume of domestic excavators in May 2018 was 19313, an increase of 71.35% over the same period last year. The total sales volume reached 105 thousand and 900 units in 1-5 months, an increase of 60.18% over the same period. Many forecasts suggest that this year's sales volume of excavators may exceed the highest level of 180 thousand in 2011.
This still cannot be determined by the rapid growth of the economy. Because the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the 1-4 months of this year is only 12.4%, which is only about half that of 23.3% in the same period last year. Considering that the current digital performance is normal, the excavator can be used as an indicator of economic advance, which may indicate that the economic growth in the first half of the year is still high, and the possibility of the 6.8% is still very large.
The sales volume of excavators is at a record high: what signals has been released from the 100 thousand stations?
Weak season
Data show that the number of excavator sales has increased rapidly this year. 1-2 months sales of 21 thousand and 800, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, 3-5 month sales of 39 thousand and 300, 26 thousand and 600, 19 thousand and 300 (four to five into), the growth rate of 78.9%, 84%, 713 thousand and 500.
The total volume of excavators sold in 1-5 months exceeded 100 thousand. This may make the annual sales volume of excavators high.
Lv Ying, Deputy Secretary General of China Engineering Machinery Industry Association, pointed out that the number of excavators fluctuated greatly, but there were still laws, such as the highest in 3 and April every year, after 7 and August, the weak season, and by the end of the year.
From the current situation, the sales of excavators may reach the highest level this year, exceeding the 180 thousand level in 2011.
This is not the same as the situation in 2011. In 2011, the government introduced 4 trillion stimulus measures. At that time, many excavators were purchased, reflecting the good expectation of the market. Many drivers buy on loan, and at that time, the excavators were paid low in advance, or even zero payments could be taken away.
This year's situation is that the proportion of the first payment of excavators is high, and some have reached four or five. At the same time, many excavators sell quickly, not necessarily the demand for the market, but the demand for machines. For example, the batch of machines purchased in 2011 is now time to be replaced and replaced by machines.
"In addition, the total investment in China is far greater than that in 2011, so the overall investment growth is not high, but the demand for excavators is still large." Lv Ying said.
According to the National Bureau of statistics, investment in fixed assets in cities and towns in 2011 was about 30 trillion yuan, but by 2017, it had reached about 63 trillion.
However, it is very interesting that sales of excavators have increased rapidly, investment in the whole country has slowed down, investment in infrastructure is also the same, and investment funds are scarce everywhere.
In 1-4 months of 2018, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 154358 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the same period last year, lower than the 8.9% growth rate of the same period last year. The growth rate of infrastructure investment is only 12.4%, about half of the same period last year. At the same time, various localities have met to talk about solving the short board problem of investment funds.
For example, in May 29th, Heilongjiang province expanded the effective investment prevention and control of the government debt risk television conference, Li Haitao, deputy governor of Heilongjiang, pointed out that to accelerate project investment construction, effectively prevent and control the risk of government debt, to effectively invest to promote the structure of transfer mode, to achieve smooth economic growth and high quality development of the whole province.
Sun Jie, a researcher at the Financial Science Institute of the Ministry of finance, told the twenty-first Century economic reporter that the government's first task this year is to prevent risk, for which the local government can not use bank funds at random to increase its debt to invest, or to use securities within the scope of the country to invest. This is the pressure of the local government to invest in the downward pressure. The reason.
"Excavator index" is the focus of attention
The National Bureau of statistics will publish the figures in May before June 14th, and it is expected that the first half figures will be released in July.
Despite the rapid sales of excavators, this does not mean that the economy is growing faster. On the contrary, the economy is still showing a stable overall situation.
Tang Jianwei, chief macroeconomic analyst at the bank financial research center, pointed out that economic growth is expected to be 6.8% in the first half of this year and around 6.7% in the whole year.
It should be noted that the state emphasizes the prevention of financial risks, so the growth rate of investment can not be too high. In addition, the irregularities in the PPP (government and social capital cooperation) are being investigated, and the relaxation of financing in the country is tightening.
To make clear, the contribution rate of investment to the economy is relatively low at present, only about 3 percent. The economy is mainly driven by consumption, about 7 percent.
"Although investment growth is slowing down, real economic growth will be stable." Tang Jianwei also believes that excavators can reflect investment demand to a certain extent, but investment itself has limited contribution to the economy. At present, many areas are desalting GDP numbers and pursuing quality growth.
Li Keqiang, premier of the State Council, visited the 31 group in Changsha, Hunan in June 12th. The industrial Internet large data platform built by the group has access to 380 thousand industrial equipment, covers 5000 kinds of machine parameters, and accumulates about 100000000000 data to form a "excavator index", which provides important support for the analysis of the macroeconomic situation.
Reporters learned that in fact, excavator reflects the most useful macroeconomic is not sales volume, but the amount of physical.
Lv Ying pointed out how much work the excavator put in at a certain time and how much physical quantities it produced, which can reflect the economic situation very well. "Although excavators can not be used as economic indicators, they can sometimes serve as economic references and confirm that they play an early warning role."
At present, all sides predict that the overall economic performance of China is good this year. According to the forecast made by the Chinese economist in June 12th, the economists who judged the economic growth of or more than 6.5% in 2018 accounted for 6.6%, 6.7% and 6.5% of the economists in the eastern, central and western regions of China more than 80% in 2018, respectively, and the national comprehensive forecast was 6.6%, and 6.5% of the year was completed. The index of the left and right.
Li Gang, a researcher at the Industrial Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the economy is slowing in some parts of the eastern part of China, but the development potential of many central and western regions is still huge, such as low labor costs, low prices, great potential for developing manufacturing and the transfer of Eastern industries in the Midwest. Keep steady growth for a long time.
