Recently, the market has great differences in the construction machinery industry. There are still doubts about the actual operation of the downstream and the sustainability of the construction machinery industry. Today, Xiaobian analyzes the current start-up situation and industry demand so that we can have a clearer understanding of the whole industry.
The pace is different, but the whole is better than last year
It is understood that the six provinces in Guangxi, Hunan, Sichuan, Anhui, Hebei and Zhejiang have different operating rates due to the different provinces. But overall, the start of this year is better than last year.
Guangxi, Hunan and Sichuan generally reflect that the start of the Spring Festival is better than last year, which is about 20% higher than last year's Spring Festival; Zhejiang, Anhui and other places are more stable; and the northern regions, especially Hebei and Beijing, are getting tighter and the duration of the two sessions is longer. The start was down from the same period last year.
But in the near future, there has been some warming. The improvement of the construction situation is also directly reflected in the sales of engineering machinery and equipment. The super expected growth of engineering machinery and equipment has also played a dose of strong agent for the market.
Whether the future market can guarantee steady and sustained growth, we should also look at the downstream demand and the renewal demand.
Infrastructure investment tends to be stable. Xiong an construction is the biggest bright spot.
Capital construction investment is closely related to the trend of the construction machinery industry. A large number of infrastructure projects at the end of 2015 and early 2016 are the important factors for the reheating of the engineering machinery industry. Moreover, as the construction of Xiong an new area will be transferred to the implementation stage, or will further promote the further development of the construction machinery industry, it will become one of the biggest bright spots.
According to statistics, the final planning area of Xiong an new area is about 2000 square kilometers, and population planning is limited to 2 million -250 people. From the scale of investment, the Tianjin Binhai New Area (2270 square kilometers, 2 million 994 thousand and 200 people) was set up in 2009, and the subsequent annual total investment is over 1 trillion yuan. It is expected that in the next 5-10 years, the investment scale of Xiong an new area is not less than 10 trillion, including railways, highways, real estate and so on.
In the construction of the municipal road network, the demand for construction machinery is 8%, the demand for construction machinery in real estate investment is 5%, and the demand for construction machinery in the future is expected to reach hundreds of billions of yuan. Recently, the Beijing Schongau iron and Rongcheng municipal projects have been landed, indicating that the capital construction of Xiong an new area has begun and is expected to enhance downstream demand for construction machinery.
Global infrastructure and warm area to promote high export growth
The revival of this round of engineering machinery is mainly driven by the recovery of domestic demand, but the export growth of engineering machinery is accelerating with the promotion of the one - way initiative and the recovery of the global infrastructure.
In the rise period of the industry, the domestic leading enterprises are expected to gradually establish a relatively perfect sales network and after-sales service outlets abroad. In the next 2-3 years, export growth will become a major highlight of the engineering machinery industry.
Updating demand is still the main force, which is expected to reach 70% this year.
The industry generally agreed that the main reason for the sharp rebound in the construction machinery industry was the release of renewed demand. Moreover, with the implementation of environmental protection policies, some cities with high environmental protection requirements such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have taken the lead in speeding up the elimination of high emission equipment. In the future, under the background of strict environmental protection, more cities are expected to follow up this policy. This will have a certain impact on the renewal progress of the equipment. The industry expects that this year, the demand for equipment renewal is expected to reach 70%.
The industry tends to be more rational and will be more stable
Different from the 2009-2011 stimulus, in this round of construction machinery to warm up, whether the host plant, agents or purchase users, are very rational. In the last turn, the market participants were blindly optimistic: the overinvestment, overcapacity, and even the low down payment and even zero down payment policy of the main plant and spare parts enterprises were also introduced, and the amount of accounts receivable was formed when the industry fell.
Sales policy, at present, the host plant and agents are not relaxed, the proportion of the general installment down payment is above 30%, the higher can reach 40%-50%, the repayment period is not more than 24 months. There is no irrational purchase of the purchase users. In general, there is a definite project to buy equipment.
It is precisely because in the hot market, the participants remain rational, which makes the industry develop high quality and will be more stable and stable.
