According to relevant information from the Fed, at the hearing held recently, the Fed Chairman issued a warning that the US economic recovery still has a long way to go, and said that the situation of economic recovery and the progress of the epidemic have a great relationship. But at the same time, Trump was pushing back to work in the White House, even threatening to stop the new crown test.
At present, the Fed has maintained extremely low interest rates, and printing money at high speed attempts to promote economic recovery. However, according to statistics, since Trump proposed to resume work, the employment and output of the United States still have a very large gap compared with before the epidemic. Although the employment rate has been improved to a certain extent from the data, most of them are temporary unemployment. For those who resumed work after the shop or company reopened, there is no relevant data showing that the number of unemployed people in the United States has a significant downward trend. Even from all levels, the number of unemployed people is still rising. Moreover, judging from the number of people who have renewed their relief payments, they have not gradually reduced because of opening up, but have maintained a certain degree of balance, indicating that the unemployed have almost no signs of returning to work.
According to Fed Chairman Powell, the total number of unemployed people in the United States during the epidemic has reached 48 million, and may continue to grow at a rate of 1.2 million per month, especially for people of color, women, LGBTQ, etc. It may be more severe. Of course, it may be possible to specifically mention "vulnerable groups" such as people of color as Powell specifically reminded Trump, but from the increasingly serious demonstrations in the United States, the number of unemployed people in the vulnerable groups has risen with them. The march may also be related. The intensification of racial contradictions may even cause some racially discriminatory companies to directly expel relevant personnel, causing more unemployment.
Of course, in addition to the unemployment rate, the relief for SMEs is also very worthy of attention. As a developed country, the number of SMEs in the United States accounts for more than 99% of the total number of the country. According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, these SMEs employ more than half of the country’s workers and absorb more than 60% of the unemployed. Almost all new jobs are provided by SMEs. The number of nearly 20 million SMEs is worldwide One of the best, it is better than other large enterprises in terms of informatization level and innovation level. The model is the SpaceX and other companies affiliated with Musk, which is now cooperating with the US government and the military.
However, these companies exist in the service industry in large numbers. Product sales, personnel training, information consulting and services, only a small number of companies can achieve technological and technological innovation. After all, the most cutting-edge technologies and talents are in the hands of big capital; This has led to a major blow to the service industry in the United States after the emergence of the new crown epidemic. A large number of enterprises have closed down and workers have lost their jobs. The relatively backward infrastructure and online and offline logistics in the United States have caused product sales to stall, which has caused these companies to suffer. A full blow. In the field of capital, the demand is greatly reduced because of the epidemic. Without demand, SMEs simply cannot survive, and only large enterprises can barely survive the shock through huge customers and deposits. The existence of Boeing's civil aircraft manufacturing, which is extremely dependent on demand, even directly faces the risk of bankruptcy, not to mention small and medium-sized enterprises.
Therefore, the United States is actually in a very dangerous position. A large number of financial instruments and economic measures have led to small and medium-sized enterprises because of insufficient demand and insufficient cash flow to support loans. Although Trump is currently demanding opening as soon as possible, domestic riots and The demonstrations did not stop. For people with respiratory diseases and the elderly, the existence of the epidemic is still dangerous, which further exacerbates the reduction in demand; and SMEs are the backbone of the US economy, so rely on large companies to achieve financial data. Good-looking is not enough. The foundation of the bottom-most SMEs is not firmly laid, and the financial buildings above will sooner or later fall.
