"In May, production demand continued to improve, employment prices were generally stable, positive factors gradually increased, and the economy continued to show a recovery trend, which generally met expectations." Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, responded to how the media evaluated the economic performance in May , Make such an answer.
On June 15, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the national economic operations in May. The latest major economic indicators data show that the main economic indicators continued to improve in May, and the economic operation continued to recover. Specifically, industrial production rebounded steadily in May, the decline in market sales narrowed for three consecutive months, and the retail scale of commodities was close to the level of the same month of the previous year. In the first five months, the decline in fixed-asset investment continued to narrow, and the growth rate of investment in high-tech industries, agriculture, and social sectors changed from negative to positive.
The analysis believes that the pace of economic “U-shaped” recovery has not changed, and a steady recovery continues to advance. Some organizations expect that the economic growth rate in the second quarter will turn positive, and the economic growth rate will increase quarter by quarter. In terms of policy, Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, told reporters that it will broaden the “ditch” of bank funds directly to the real economy, open up the “blood line”, re-discount loans, regulatory tolerance, corporate credit bond financing, and industry chain receivables. Policies such as account financing will continue to intensify efforts to accurately target solid enterprises.
Let’s quickly understand the main points of the data released this time:
1. Industrial production rebounded steadily. The year-on-year growth rate of the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 0.5 percentage points faster than that in April; the month-on-month growth rate was 1.53%. In the first five months, the year-on-year decline in the value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed.
2. As of May 27, 67.4% of the enterprises reached more than 80% of the normal production level, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from the end of April.
3. In May, over 70% of the industry's added value realized year-on-year growth, and more than half of the industrial products included in the statistics achieved growth. The output growth of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, smart watches, integrated circuit wafers, charging piles, etc. are all above 70%.
4. The growth of the equipment manufacturing industry continues to accelerate, and infrastructure-related products have a good growth momentum. In May, the output of construction machinery increased by 38.4% year-on-year, an increase of 17.5 percentage points from the previous month, of which excavators increased by 82.3%, an increase of 32.8 percentage points from the previous month; large and medium-sized tractors and concrete machinery increased by 56.1% and 42.2, respectively %; automobile production was 2.152 million units, an increase of 19%, of which 458,000 were trucks, an increase of 54.7%, and the growth rate was significantly faster than last month.
5. Driven by the recovery of market demand, SUV cars and notebook computers increased by 33.5% and 28.6% respectively, and the output of smart phones and smart TVs increased from falling to increasing. In addition, the growth of the raw material industry has accelerated.
6. In terms of investment, from January to May, the decline in infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment respectively narrowed by 5.5, 4.0, and 3.0 percentage points from January to April.
7. Investment in the field of people's livelihood increased. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water accelerated at a year-on-year rate, setting a new high since 2017. Investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and investment in the social sector have all changed from negative to positive. Among them, from January to May, the investment in livestock raising increased by 36.0%, and the investment in poultry raising increased by 46.0%.
From August to January, high-tech industry investment, high-tech manufacturing investment and high-tech service investment all changed from negative to positive.
9. Private investment continued to recover. The decline in infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate development, social fields, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery private investment narrowed in order by 4.7 percentage points, 4.0 percentage points, 3.5 percentage points, 6.2 percentage points and 5.6 percentage points.
10. Newly-invested projects continued to show a positive trend. The total investment of newly-launched projects from January to May increased by 7.9%, and the growth rate was 6.8 percentage points faster than that from January to April.
11. In terms of consumption, residents' consumption continued to improve, and the decline in market sales narrowed for three consecutive months. The retail scale of commodities is close to the level of the same month last year. Nearly 80% of the retail sales of units above designated size increased year-on-year.
In May and May, the retail sales of automotive products above the designated size increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the second highest since May 2018.
13. The sales of real estate have been restored, and the promotion of household appliances consumption policies has been promoted. The retail sales of residential commodities have increased from falling to rising. In May, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, furniture, and construction and decoration materials in units above designated size increased by 4.3%, 3.0%, and 1.9% respectively year-on-year.
14. The operation of the catering and accommodation industry has improved. In May, catering revenue decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow by 12.2 percentage points; catering services such as takeaways grew rapidly. In May, the catering revenue of accommodation and catering enterprises above designated size through public networks increased by more than 20% year-on-year.
15. In terms of employment, in May, the national unemployment rate for urban surveys was 5.9%, of which the unemployment rate for the 25-59 year-old population survey was 5.4%, both of which declined. The average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises across the country increased by 1.8 hours from April. Judging from the year-on-year increase in the number of new jobs in the first five months, there was a decrease of 1.37 million compared with the same period last year.
One question: Did the economic performance in May meet expectations?
In May, the resumption of work, production and business resumed solidly, production demand continued to improve, employment prices were generally stable, positive changes accumulated, and the national economy gradually recovered.
Fu Linghui said that the overall economic performance in May was in line with expectations, with six major characteristics, namely: the growth of industrial service industry, continued improvement of consumption investment, the continuous enhancement of new kinetic energy, the overall stability of employment prices, the continuous improvement of corporate productivity, the market Expected to remain stable.
Fu Linghui further pointed out that although the main indicators continued to improve in May, many indicators were lower than the same period last year from the current month, and most indicators were still declining from the cumulative point of view, indicating that the loss of the epidemic impact still needs to be compensated and the economy has not returned to normal Level.
When interpreting industrial production data, Changjiang Yuan, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics' Industrial Department, said that the current industrial production is generally recovering well, but there are still many difficulties and uncertainties that deserve attention. First, the strength of the industry and product recovery has weakened. 25 of the 41 industries have experienced a decline in growth rate or an increase in decline. The product growth has declined from the previous month. Second, the consumer goods industry experienced a decline. The growth rate changed from an increase of 0.7% last month to a decrease of 0.6%. Apparel, furniture, culture, education, beauty, leather and footwear industries fell between 5.0% and 11.4%. The third is insufficient export orders. The value of industrial export delivery has decreased from an increase to a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The export delivery value of some industries that account for relatively high exports has fallen by more than 10%.
Question 2: What are the main indicators showing positive changes?
In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size continued to pick up, and the growth rate of the service industry production index changed from negative to positive. According to a sample survey of industrial enterprises above designated size by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of May 27, 67.4% of the enterprises had reached more than 80% of the normal production level, an increase of 6.6 percentage points from the end of April. This shows that the resumption of production and production is further advanced.
In view of different industries, in May, among the 41 major industries, 30 industries realized a year-on-year increase in value added, and the number of industries increased by 2 from the previous month, with an increase of 73.2%. In the service industry, the national service industry production index increased by 1.0% year-on-year, from positive to negative.
From the demand side, the national fixed asset investment fell by 6.3% year-on-year in the first five months, and the decline continued to narrow. Among them, the declines in infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment were 5.5, 4.0, and 3.0 narrower than those from January to April. Percentage points. At the same time, market sales are gradually picking up, sales of basic lifestyle products have maintained rapid growth, and consumption-upgrading products and online retailing continue to improve.
The trend of transformation and upgrading is also continuing. The added value of high-tech manufacturing grew faster by 4.5 percentage points than the above-scale industries. In May, the output of some emerging products continued to maintain rapid growth, and the growth of 3D printing equipment, smart watches, integrated circuit wafers, and charging piles were all above 70%. The output of excavation, soil shovel transportation machinery, microcomputer equipment, optical cables, automobiles, and industrial robots (13.640, 0.30, 2.25%) increased by 62.1%, 22.3%, 20.8%, 19.0%, and 16.9% respectively year-on-year. Sales of consumption-upgrading commodities also continued to improve.
Ding Yong, chief statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that with the significant effect of stabilizing the investment policy, investment in new construction projects continued to show a positive trend. From the perspective of relevant indicators, the production and sales of construction machinery products were booming in May. The output of excavation, shovel transportation machinery and concrete machinery increased by 62.1% and 42.2% year-on-year respectively, and the sales volume of excavators increased by 68% year-on-year. These circumstances indicate that future investment is expected to continue to pick up.
Three questions: What is the quality of employment?
In May, the national unemployment rate for urban surveys was 5.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April. Among them, the unemployment rate for the 25-59-year-old population survey was 5.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The urban survey unemployment rate was generally stable.
Fu Linghui introduced that the main reason for the survey's unemployment rate slightly decreased from April:
First, the economic operation has gradually improved. The continuous improvement in production demand has laid the foundation for the expansion of employment scale and the stability of employment. In May, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size increased for two consecutive months year-on-year, the production of the service industry turned from falling to rising, and the month-on-month decline in the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the cumulative decline in fixed asset investment both continued to narrow.
The second is the effectiveness of the employment priority policy. Persisting in reducing burdens, stabilizing jobs, and expanding employment simultaneously, we will focus on stabilizing enterprises to secure employment, grasp the employment of key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, and encourage flexible employment through multiple channels, effectively guaranteeing the overall stability of employment.
The third is that the situation of employees returning to work continues to improve. A quick survey showed that the proportion of enterprises above designated size with an employee return rate of more than 80% increased by 1.2 percentage points from the last survey at the end of May and early June, of which the proportion of industrial and service enterprises increased by 0.6 and 1.7 percentage points respectively.
Fu Linghui pointed out that it must also be soberly aware that although the surveyed unemployment rate has dropped slightly, employment pressure cannot be ignored. Affected by the epidemic situation, the production and operation difficulties of enterprises are outstanding, and the demand for recruitment and employment has declined. Some individual industrial and commercial households and small and micro enterprises have recovered slowly after the epidemic, and employment absorption has been affected to a certain extent. In the first 5 months, 4.6 million people were employed in cities and towns nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 1.37 million. In May, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. At the same time, in May, about 1.2% of the employed people were in an unemployed state, which was higher than the normal level in previous years; the average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises decreased by 0.2 hours compared with the same period of the previous year. In addition, the scale of college graduates reached 8.74 million this year, a record high. With the concentration of college graduates entering the labor market, the unemployment rate of college students may continue to rise.
Four questions: Will prices continue to fall in the later period?
In May, national consumer prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from April; the month-on-month decline of 0.8%. From January to May, national consumer prices rose 4.1% year-on-year. After deducting food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 1.1%, unchanged from April.
Fu Linghui said that CPI has continued to fall since February. The drop in CPI growth is structurally mainly affected by changes in food prices. Driven by a series of consumer-promoting policies, market activity has increased, both retail and catering services have improved, and market demand has gradually recovered, which has had a certain pull-up effect on prices, but prices have remained generally stable or have declined steadily. There are many conditions.
"In general, the consumer prices of the whole year have been steadily declining, and there is a greater possibility of'higher than lower'," Fu Linghui said.
Q5: Is the recovery of consumption sustainable?
Data show that in May, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 2.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points from April. In the first five months, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 13.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from January to April.
Zhang Min, a statistician at the Department of Foreign Trade and Economics of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the consumer market continued to improve gradually, residents’ outing shopping and dining activities accelerated, and market sales improved for three consecutive months. The scale of retail sales of goods in May was close to the level of the same month last year.
It is worth mentioning that some consumption upgrading commodities maintained rapid growth. For example, driven by the stabilization and promotion of automobile consumption policies issued by the central and local governments, residents’ demand for car purchases and replacements has continued to be released, and sales in the auto market have picked up. In May, the retail sales of automotive commodities above the designated size increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the second highest since May 2018. The retail sales of cosmetics, sports and entertainment products and communication equipment all achieved rapid growth.
Consumption in some industries severely affected by the epidemic has also accelerated. In May, catering revenue decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, and the decline continued to narrow by 12.2 percentage points; catering services such as takeaways grew rapidly. In May, the catering revenue of accommodation and catering enterprises above designated size through public networks increased by more than 20% year-on-year.
Zhang Min said that with the gradual restoration of the residents' living order and the promotion of various consumer policies, the market sales situation has been further consolidated. In the next stage, with the solid progress of the "six stability" work, the continuous implementation of the "six guarantees" task, and the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, the consumer market will gradually return to normal.
Six questions: Will housing prices continue to rise?
In May, after preliminary calculations, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in various tier cities increased slightly from the previous month, and the increase in second-hand housing was the same as last month or slightly expanded. The year-on-year increase in the sales price of newly built commercial housing in first-tier cities was the same as last month, and the increase in second-hand housing increased; the increase in second- and third-tier cities continued to decline.
Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in May, positive results were achieved in the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. The production and living order continued to recover, housing demand was further released, and the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities was generally stable. , Prices rose slightly.
According to the research report of the macro team of the China Mind Bank, this year's "Government Work Report" continued the stable thinking of real estate, emphasizing the two points of "no housing and speculation, policy implementation in accordance with the city" and "deep promotion of new urbanization", without mentioning "no Use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term." However, considering the downward pressure on the macro economy, local governments may still use real estate as an important means to stabilize local economic development. From the current point of view, the recovery process of the real estate industry is better than expected, and the main indicators such as Jian'an investment, land purchase, and sales will keep the overall trend of picking up. Therefore, it is expected that the national real estate market will rebound steadily in the future, and market hotspots will continue to emerge, but overheated local markets under regulatory control are difficult to reproduce.
Zhonghua Securities (14.250, 0.73, 5.40%) macro chief analyst Liang Zhonghua pointed out that real estate development investment has decreased by 0.3% year-on-year. In terms of conversion month, the growth rate in May further increased to 8.4%, rebounding in three major types of investment Fastest.
Q7: Can the economic growth in the second quarter be positive?
Entering the second quarter, the resumption of production and the resumption of business continued to advance. The PMI of China's manufacturing industry has been above the glorious line for three consecutive months, and the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size has been increasing year-on-year for two consecutive months in April and May. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods narrowed by 5.5 percentage points; fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) narrowed by 9.8 percentage points.
In this regard, Fu Linghui said that since the second quarter, with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the demand for production has continued to improve, and positive factors have accumulated. The main indicators have improved significantly compared with the first quarter.
Fu Linghui also emphasized that overseas epidemic situation raged and the world economy and trade shrank seriously. In the second quarter, the WTO barometer index for trade in goods was 87.6, a record low; the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted that global merchandise trade in the second quarter would fall by 26.9% compared with the first quarter. At the same time, domestic contact-gathering consumption is restricted, the manufacturing industry has insufficient investment motivation, and production and management of enterprises are difficult. From January to May, manufacturing investment fell by 14.8% year-on-year; from January to April, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 27.4%. Recently, the epidemic situation in some areas of the country has changed, and the impact on the economy is still uncertain. Whether economic growth can be turned right depends on the economic recovery in June.
Eight questions: How to force the next step?
Fu Linghui said that there is a good foundation and conditions for promoting sustained economic recovery in the later period.
First, the steady recovery of the economy is obvious. Resumption of work, production, and resumption of the market are powerful and effective. The industrial service industry has achieved growth. The decline in consumer investment has continued to narrow. Market expectations are generally stable.
Second, the effects of macro policies continue to appear. This year's new burden reduction for enterprises is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, the issue of 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds, the increase of 1 trillion yuan in fiscal deficit, and increased support for monetary credit. These policies will continue to support later economic recovery.
The third is that the new kinetic energy continues to grow. The digital economy is accelerating overall, intelligent and technological products are growing rapidly, remote offices, online education, online consultation and other rapid expansions, new models such as unmanned retailing and live streaming have emerged, which will effectively support economic development.
Fu Linghui emphasized that in the next stage, these favorable conditions should be used well, the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee should be thoroughly implemented, the requirements of the "Government Work Report" should be well implemented, and the "six stability" work and the "six guarantees" tasks should be further implemented to promote the national economy. Stable recovery.
Brokerage institutions generally optimistic about the performance of late investment growth
Wu Chaoming, the chief economist of Caixin Securities, told reporters that the recovery of industrial production is relatively fast, turning positive in April and accelerating in May. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year may exceed market expectations, reaching double-digit growth rate, and the growth rate of real estate investment will also increase, which is worth looking forward to. Looking forward to the later period, the economic growth rate in the second quarter is likely to be positive, and the economic growth rate will increase quarter by quarter. In addition, how to broaden the "ditch" of bank funds directly to the real economy, open up the "blood line", and then continue to strengthen policies such as loan re-discounting, regulatory tolerance, corporate credit bond financing, industry chain receivables financing, and accurate landing on entities enterprise. Wu Chaoming believes that in this process, local governments, banks, and enterprises need to be linked together, as well as local development and reform commissions, PBOCs, financial institutions, and companies to accurately "inject" funds into physical enterprises. This should be done in the future to minimize Loss of funds.
According to a research report from the macro team of the China Mind Bank, the accelerated economic recovery in May was mainly driven by the automotive industry chain, infrastructure and real estate. Looking forward to the next stage, the growth rate of automobile consumption will be significantly reduced by the high base factor in June, which may drag down automobile production; real estate has experienced rapid growth for three consecutive months. The speed of land acquisition and construction has slowed, and the support of these two pillars may be weakened. In addition, the repeated occurrence of the Beijing epidemic may affect consumer performance such as catering and tourism. At the same time, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to continue to rise, especially after the financial funds are in place, the two new and first-tier investments will continue to accelerate. Foreign demand is also expected to recover gradually. South Korea’s export growth rate has changed from -46.3% in the previous month to 20.2% in the first 10 days of June. The process of restarting the economy of major countries is starting one after another. The most severe moment of exports may have ended, and the follow-up is expected to drive Manufacturing investment is gradually repaired.
Xie Yunliang, chief macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that the pace of economic “U-shaped” recovery has not changed, and a steady recovery continues to advance. There are structural opportunities in investment, and the bond market will usher in a repair market after a previous overshoot.
