In May, the sales volume of construction machinery exceeded expectations again. The current industry maintains prosperity, the quality of operations is good, and the concentration of the industry has increased. In particular, the current valuation of several leading companies is 10-12 times, with a margin of safety. Benefiting from loose monetary policy, as well as the landing of local debt funds and economic shortcomings since the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected that the industry will maintain a prosperous situation in 2020-2021, and the second quarter of this year's performance will increase significantly. The annual revenue growth target of major leading host companies is 20-30%, and we expect gross profit margins to increase; hydraulic parts leaders Hengli and Aidi benefit from accelerated domestic substitution and new products grow faster. The construction machinery industry performance forecast has the possibility of upward adjustment, and continues to strongly recommend Sany, China United, Hengli, and Eddy.
The sales volume of excavators in May was 68% year-on-year, exceeding expectations (the industry generally expected 50%). According to the statistics of the Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 excavator manufacturers included in the statistics in May sold 31,744 sets of various types of excavators, an increase of 68% year-on-year; of which 29,521 units were domestic, an increase of 76.3% year-on-year; 2,223 units were exported, an increase of 3.25 year-on-year %. From January to May, a total of 145,800 excavators were sold, an increase of 19.4% year-on-year; of which 134169 were domestic, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year; 11631 were exported, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year. From the perspective of product structure, the rapid growth of small excavation is mainly affected by labor substitution, rural construction and the implementation of infrastructure construction in various regions. Large excavation and middle excavation are greatly affected by investment. The fluctuation is relatively obvious, and the decline of large excavation is relatively large.
The reason for the rapid growth in sales of excavators is that the market oversold in February, which caused delays in market orders and insufficient production capacity. Many OEMs are out of stock. The out of stock status has gradually disappeared since May, and the original market trend has gradually recovered in June and July. . In addition, the downstream infrastructure and real estate investment (old relay shed reform) are good, and the total demand has increased, especially for infrastructure: the amount of new special bonds from January to April totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, from the new special bonds for infrastructure Judging from the proportion of project funds, the main projects are transportation (railroad, rail transit, toll road), hospital school construction, traditional industrial park, ecological environmental protection, municipal construction, new infrastructure, etc. Among them, the proportion of investment in infrastructure is 69% (including 6% of new infrastructure, excluding hospitals), which greatly exceeds 24% of last year. Looking forward to the excavator industry throughout the year, this year is expected to maintain 20-30% growth, exceeding the expectations at the beginning of the year. The main reasons are: ① The demand for environmental protection is relatively large, and many places implement the delineation of high-emission areas to form new demand; ② Infrastructure remains stable There is a rise in demand to stabilize the excavator market. The construction of new countryside and urbanization has driven the rapid growth of small excavation; ③ the application of new technologies has brought an upgrade in marketing methods; ④ the multi-functional application of excavators is becoming more and more common.
Loader sales maintained steady growth, and exports fell sharply. The 22 loader manufacturers included in the statistics in May sold a total of 12,769 units of various loaders, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year. Among them: 1,2018 units of loader of 3 tons and above were sold, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%. The total sales volume was 11,425 units in the domestic market, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%; export sales were 1,344 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5%. From January to May, a total of 53,712 units of various types of loaders were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 3.08%. The total sales volume was 44230 units in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 2.41%; export sales were 9482 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.12%.
