According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the output of excavators nationwide was 40,420, a significant increase of 82.3% year-on-year; from January to May 2020, the cumulative output of excavators nationwide was 153,289 units, an increase of 14.7% year-on-year.
The substantial increase in the output of excavators, coupled with the obvious rebound in other physical quantity indicators, mutually confirms the trend of the main indicators of macroeconomic operation, reflecting the gradual increase in the current positive factors of China's economic operation and the continued economic recovery.
At present, China's resumption of work, production, business, and resumption of the market have been comprehensively promoted, and production demand has continued to improve, but the loss of the epidemic has yet to be compensated, the economy has not returned to normal levels, the domestic economic recovery is still under pressure, and it is still necessary to promote the economy to return to normal growth. Pay more effort.
Excavator production and sales improved significantly
Excavator is an indispensable equipment for infrastructure construction. To a certain extent, the production and sales of excavators are a "barometer" of the investment status of infrastructure, and also one of the important perspectives for observing the operating status of economies.
At the beginning of 2020, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic directly impacted the normal production and living order, and strict prevention and control measures also inevitably have an impact on economic operations. Under this background, the national excavator output fell by 35.7% from January to February 2020, and the production and sales in the first quarter decreased by 19.9% year-on-year.
According to industry statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 mainframe manufacturing companies included in the first quarter sold a total of 68,630 sets of various excavation machinery products, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%, of which the domestic market sales decreased by 11.6% year-on-year.
Since entering March, with my country's overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the epidemic prevention and control situation has continued to improve, the resumption of production and business recovery has accelerated, and the production and sales of excavators have also rebounded significantly.
In April, excavator output increased by 49.5% year-on-year, and sales increased by 59.9% year-on-year; in May, excavator output increased significantly by 82.3% year-on-year, and sales increased by 68% year-on-year. Corresponding to this set of data, the cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment has continued to narrow since March. In May, national fixed asset investment fell by 6.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points from the previous 4 months, of which infrastructure investment (Excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries) a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the previous 4 months.
"The production and sales of excavators is one of the leading indicators of investment in infrastructure projects. With the obvious recovery of production and sales of excavators, it indicates that the progress of my country's infrastructure projects and enterprises' resumption of production and production is further accelerated." said Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst in the financial market department of China Everbright Bank.
Ding Yong, chief statistician of the Investment Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that as the investment policy stabilized and effective, new investment projects continued to show a positive trend. The total investment of newly started projects in the first 5 months increased by 7.9%, which is a faster growth rate than the previous 4 Monthly acceleration of 6.8 percentage points. The prosperous production and sales of construction machinery products in May indicated that investment in the future is expected to continue to pick up.
The physical quantity index continues to rise
In fact, not only the fixed asset investment indicators closely related to the production and sales of excavators are picking up, but other physical quantity indicators reflecting the economic operation situation are also continuing to pick up. The Chinese economy is accelerating its return to the right track.
According to data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the China Commodity Index (CBMI) was 105.9% in May, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The supply index and sales index both rebounded, and the inventory index continued to decline.
At present, the "both supply and demand boom" of commodities indicates that with the support of the "six stability" and "six guarantees" policies, the domestic economy has accelerated recovery, the results of resumption of production and production have been initially consolidated, the production companies have good expectations for the future market, and the demand side performance is also relatively good , The production enthusiasm of the company has increased significantly
From the perspective of logistics indicators, China's express logistics index was 108.8% in May, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. It continued to accelerate on the basis of two consecutive months of recovery, reflecting that the business activities related to express logistics remained relatively active The economic operation continued to recover well. In addition, transportation and logistics operations have basically resumed, and the number of railway loading has remained basically the same as that of the previous year.
"In May, a series of physical quantity indicators continued to pick up, releasing a positive signal that China's real economy is warming, and that supply and demand have entered a virtuous circle. Since physical quantity indicators are leading indicators of the real economy, it is expected that the subsequent economic expansion will be further accelerated." Zhou Maohua said that as domestic demand picks up, business operations are normalized, and a large-scale corporate support policy has been introduced with the help of fiscal and monetary assistance, which will help companies overcome difficulties as quickly as possible.
Economic growth momentum is recovering
In May, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 50.6%, and the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.6%. Both of these indexes have been above the gloom line for three consecutive months. The data also shows that the industrial added value above designated size and the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods have also shown a "V"-shaped rebound since March.
Zhou Maohua said that both the physical quantity indicators and the main indicators of the national economy have continued to improve since March, which shows that the domestic economy is gradually getting rid of the burden of the epidemic, production and life have returned to normal, and a series of stable investment and promotion The effects of policies such as consumption and foreign trade stabilization are accelerating.
"Retail data and fixed investment growth in May are still shrinking in May, showing that economic activity is still one step away from the same period last year. The performance of economic data in June will determine whether GDP will return to the expansion area in the second quarter." Zhou Maohua said that the current Domestic demand kinetic energy has been further strengthened, industrial output has basically returned to the level before the outbreak, and it is highly likely that the economy will return to the expanded region in the second quarter.
In recent months, various places have launched consumer coupons, merchandise promotion activities, etc., coupled with the rapid development of online scenes, new business models and other consumption models, stimulating domestic residents to continue to pick up consumption, consumer goods retail will continue to pick up. With the increase in fiscal expenditures and the tilt towards infrastructure investment, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, said that as demand gradually improved, economic growth momentum was recovering. Considering that the growth rate of industrial added value in May and June has rebounded to 3.9% and 4.4% respectively, the service industry production index has rebounded to 1%, and various positive measures have accelerated the landing. It is expected that the economy will rebound significantly in the second quarter and may be achieved. Small increase.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that although the main indicators continued to improve in May, many indicators were lower than the same period of the previous year from the month. From the cumulative point of view, most indicators are still declining, indicating that the loss of the impact of the epidemic still needs To make up, the economy has not returned to normal levels.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Association for Policy Research, suggested that we should continue to do a good job of "six stability" and "six guarantees", further optimize the business environment, promote tax reduction and fee reduction, help foreign trade enterprises export to domestic sales, and achieve transformation and upgrading At the same time, focusing on emerging markets such as the ten ASEAN countries and countries along the “Belt and Road”, we will work together to tap potential.
