With the recent increase in the prices of major construction machinery products and the growth rate of excavator sales in April, which has increased by 60% year-on-year, it has been shown that the construction machinery industry's short-term boom is still high. market.
Changes in the construction machinery industry
Under the stock market, the construction machinery industry is undergoing changes
Affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the industry's demand rhythm may be disrupted. Looking ahead, taking the excavator as an example, considering the recent increase in counter-cyclical adjustment policies, it is expected that the proportion of new demand in excavator demand may increase in 2020, and the main driving force for the industry in 2021-2022 is still replacement demand. It is estimated that the domestic sales of excavators in 2020-2022 are expected to reach 229,700, 234,900 and 242,200, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, 2% and 3% respectively. If the manufacturer's credit policy is loosened or the macro stimulus is strengthened, there is a possibility of further upward revisions to the sales forecast for excavators in 2020.
Domestic substitution may become a key word in the next three years. In the context of slowing investment growth, domestic substitution in the next three years (2020-2022) is one of the major investment opportunities in the construction machinery industry, which may be reflected in: 1. OEMs already have international competitiveness. Domestic OEMs are occupying the market with the quality of not losing foreign capital. Taking excavators as an example, the share of domestic excavators has increased from 42% in 2011 to 66% in 1Q20, of which there is still room for substitution in the big excavation market Parts are entering the accelerated replacement interval.
Domestic component suppliers such as hydraulic parts and engines are facing the opportunity of industrial chain migration. Domestic brands have better after-sales service, faster response speed, and the cost-effectiveness of products may gradually show their advantages. New opportunities: Opportunities in the development stage of market segments.
From the perspective of industry development trends, there are two types of construction machinery subdivision products that deserve attention: small excavators. Judging from Japan's development experience, small excavators can replace manual labor due to wider usage scenarios, and the future penetration rate may be further improved; aerial work platforms. The aerial work platform is still in the introduction period in China. Because its construction efficiency is higher than that of scaffolding, as the proportion of maintenance in the construction scene increases, the aerial work platform penetration rate may further increase. In the stock market, competitive head companies are expected to benefit.
