The government work report at the two sessions "does not set the annual economic growth rate index". As a typical investment-driven industry, what will be the future trend of the construction machinery industry?
On the morning of May 22, 2020, at the opening ceremony of the Third Session of the Thirteenth National People's Congress, Premier Li Keqiang, on behalf of the State Council, made a government work report (hereinafter referred to as the report) to the Congress. According to Huang Shouhong, the person in charge of the drafting group of the report and the director of the Research Office of the State Council: This report has less content, longer drafting time, and more revisions, which are rare since the reform and opening up. Because of the continuous changes in the epidemic situation and economic situation at home and abroad, it is unclear how many drafts have been revised in this report, and they have been revised almost every day in recent times. In addition, the most concerned point of the report is "there is no annual economic growth index." Huang Shouhong said that not setting growth rate indicators does not mean that economic growth is no longer important, but that it is necessary to change from simply stabilizing growth to promoting growth through reform, and truly achieve high-quality growth.
The construction machinery industry, which is an important part of the equipment manufacturing industry, is basically an investment-driven industry. The average annual growth rate of market demand is generally about 1.28 times the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society. Therefore, depending on the investment direction and investment structure The annual growth rate of the industry changes greatly. If the national investment direction is more focused on the construction industry and infrastructure construction investment direction, the average annual growth rate of the construction machinery market demand can reach 1.8 to 1.9 times the growth rate of the whole society's fixed asset investment. It can be seen that the growth rate of China's construction machinery market is not only related to the increase in national investment, but also its investment composition has a greater impact on the development of the industry. Therefore, this article focuses on and selects relevant content related to infrastructure investment from the report, so as to make certain judgments and speculations on the future development of the construction machinery industry.
Strengthen the role of the main engine of domestic demand to drive the economy
Take investment as the key to stable economic growth. Accelerate the reform of the investment and financing system, promote the diversification of investment entities, and launch a number of private investment demonstration projects to optimize the investment structure and maintain a reasonable growth in fixed asset investment. The investment in the central budget is planned to increase to 457.6 billion yuan, with a focus on areas such as affordable housing projects, agriculture, major water conservancy, midwestern railways, energy conservation and environmental protection, and social undertakings, and give full play to the leading role of government investment.
Take the cultivation of a new regional economic belt as a strategic support to promote development. Give priority to the development of the western region, fully revitalize the old industrial bases such as the northeast region, vigorously promote the rise of the central and western regions, actively support the economic transformation and upgrading of the eastern region, and increase support for the old revolutionary areas, ethnic areas, border areas, and poor areas. It is necessary to plan a new chess game for regional development, from east to west, from the coast to the inland, along the major rivers and land transportation routes, to promote gradient development. Rely on the golden waterway to build the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Taking the key ports of sea and land as fulcrums, the economic support belts of southwest, middle and south, northeast and northwest connected with the coast are formed. Promote economic integration in the Yangtze River Delta region, deepen Pan-Pearl River Delta regional economic cooperation, and strengthen economic cooperation between the Bohai Rim and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Implement differentiated economic policies, promote industrial transfer, develop cross-regional transportation and circulation, and form a new regional economic growth pole.
Promote investment in major projects such as new infrastructure, new urbanization, transportation, and water conservancy
This year ’s government work report puts emphasis on supporting the “two new and one heavy” construction that not only promotes consumption and benefits people ’s livelihood, but also adjusts structural growth, mainly: strengthening new infrastructure, developing a new generation of information networks, expanding 5G applications, and building charging piles , Promote new energy vehicles, stimulate new consumer demand, and help industrial upgrading; strengthen the construction of new urbanization, and vigorously improve the county's public facilities and service capabilities to meet the increasing needs of farmers for employment and settlement in the county; new construction of old urban communities 3.9 Ten thousand; strengthen the construction of major projects such as transportation and water conservancy. Increase the national railway construction capital by 100 billion yuan; optimize projects, leave no sequelae, and allow investment to continue to benefit.
The state has concentrated on building a number of major water conservancy projects. This year, it plans to arrange more than 70 billion yuan in water conservancy investment in the central budget to support key projects such as water diversion, key water sources, river and lake management, and efficient water-saving irrigation. All localities should strengthen the construction of small and medium-sized water conservancy projects and solve the problem of “last mile” of water use. In addition, lay a solid foundation for agricultural and rural development, improve the infrastructure of rural water circuits, gas and other infrastructure, transform 2.6 million dilapidated houses in rural areas, and rebuild 200,000 kilometers of rural roads.
Improve the construction of the metropolitan area, the urban infrastructure project will be more perfect
Urbanization, innovation and consumption are the three core potentials of the Chinese economy. What is worth noting in the report is the greater emphasis on "construction of the metropolitan area", which is a manifestation of conforming to the law of urban development: deepening the promotion of new urbanization, giving full play to the leading role of central cities and urban agglomerations, nurturing industries and increasing employment.
Liu Shijin, the former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in the next 5 to 10 years, the accelerated development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations will be China ’s largest structural potential for economic growth and a “new vent” for China ’s economic growth. According to preliminary estimates, in the next 10 years, the construction of the metropolitan area will provide at least 0.5-1 percentage points of growth momentum for the national economic growth every year. The construction and development of urban agglomerations related to infrastructure construction, such as the construction and development of rail transit, and the improvement and transformation of urban infrastructure such as underground drainage systems, are particularly important.
There is such a view: to really test the infrastructure of a city, it is best to next rainstorm. At the same time as the two sessions, the heavy rain in Guangzhou from May 21 to 22 caused severe flooding in Guangzhou, and accumulated water in multiple sections of the central city for more than 5 hours. Traffic jams and flooding in the parking lot gave life to the people of the city. Cause no small impact. And heavy rain flooded the city, and it is no longer "news" in many big cities such as Guangzhou. Therefore, the construction of a nationwide urban underground drainage system is imperative, and the construction of urban infrastructure will be more in-depth, specific, and complete.
Overseas construction cannot be slack
In the "Key Work of the Year" in the third part of the report, in the second article "Creating a New Level of Opening up to the Outside World", it is mentioned that we should enhance our competitiveness in going global. Promote the reform of foreign investment management methods, implement the record-based system, and substantially decentralize the approval authority. Improve financial, legal, consular and other service guarantees, standardize the order of going abroad, and promote product export, project contracting and labor service cooperation. Pay close attention to planning and construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, promote the construction of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, launch a number of major support projects, accelerate infrastructure interconnection, and expand new space for international economic foundation cooperation. The overseas market has always been an important link for Chinese construction machinery companies, especially leading companies, to expand their territory. The uncertainty of the current global epidemic situation has brought great difficulties to the overseas development of industry companies, but in the long run, relying on China Actively "going out" policies, implementing strategies in advance, precise layout, and seizing opportunities are all hopes for a "pretty battle" in the future. Therefore, even under the current cross-existence of various uncertainties and difficulties, overseas work must not be relaxed.
Strengthen environmental protection, the issue of elimination of old equipment should attract attention
The report pointed out: We must declare war on pollution as we declare war on poverty. The construction of ecological civilization is related to people's lives and is related to the future of the nation. Put forth heavy efforts to strengthen pollution prevention and control, and deeply implement the air pollution prevention and control action plan. Eliminate 6 million yellow-label cars and old cars, and supply diesel fuel for the country's fourth-standard vehicles nationwide. Implement a clean water action plan, strengthen drinking water source protection, and promote pollution control in key river basins. Implement soil remediation projects. Renovate agricultural non-point source pollution and build beautiful villages. Before the two sessions were held, General Secretary Xi Jinping went to Zhejiang, Shaanxi and Shanxi for inspections one after another, and made important instructions of "ecological priority, green development". This fully demonstrates our party's confidence and determination to implement the green development concept and the ecological priority and green development path under the complex epidemic prevention and control situation and the difficult challenges facing economic and social development.
The main problem related to environmental protection in the construction machinery industry is whether the engine emissions meet the standards. Many of the currently used excavator and other equipment are still in the national second or even national one standard. The scale sales of the installation of national third engine equipment basically began in 2017. According to Director Yao of the State Key Laboratory of Combustion of Internal Combustion Engines, the fundamental means for old equipment to solve the problem of substandard emissions is to replace the new engine. Therefore, the author believes that to a certain extent, many of us still underestimate the impact of environmental protection policies on the industry. Environmental protection will only become stricter, and the accelerated obsolescence of old equipment has become a high probability event.
The sudden outbreak of New Coronary Pneumonia in early 2020 is a major public health emergency that has occurred in China since the founding of New China with the fastest spread, the widest scope of infection, and the most difficult prevention and control. The national governance system is a big exam.
The delayed "two meetings" should be regarded as a critical moment when a critical meeting was held. Clarified the development direction and keynote of the next step of the work, and there is no annual economic growth index. Doing so will help guide all parties to concentrate on the focus of this year ’s work: "six stability" and "six guarantees" ". However, it must be noted that whether it is to protect people's livelihood and employment, to solve the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises, or to prevent and resolve risks, economic growth is needed as a support. It can be said that stabilizing economic growth is about the overall situation.
According to the content of the report, China's development is still in a period of important strategic opportunities that can make great achievements. Industrialization and urbanization continue to advance, and there is great room for regional development. There will be a foundation and conditions for maintaining high and medium-speed economic growth in the next period. With the new urbanization infrastructure construction, new infrastructure construction (rail transportation), drainage and other urban infrastructure improvements, farmland water conservancy engineering construction, transportation, overseas engineering construction, etc., while considering the impact of environmental protection on the upgrading of the industry, Under the stable social and economic environment, the construction machinery industry will still usher in rapid development in the next 3 to 5 years. This judgment is basically the same as the author's opinion on the article "After the epidemic, the construction machinery industry will usher in good development again" on February 12, 2020. However, at present, the global epidemic situation has not bottomed out, and the economy bottomed out farther. We must remain sober and vigilant in this regard. Facing the great uncertainty of overseas economic and political development, the world is now in a rare historical turning point. Therefore, we must remain cautiously optimistic about the future development of the construction machinery industry!
