The core combination of this week: Sany, Hengli hydraulic, Xugong machinery, Addie precision, Liugong, Nuli shares, fine test electronics, middle power Germany, express stock, double ring transmission, Japanese machine seal, tusta, hang oxygen shares and Jerry shares.
Long term recommended combination: Chang Chuan technology, Hongya CNC, klai mechanical and electrical, ASD, Ying Liu shares, Zhi Yun shares, Hao Zhi electric, robot, China Iron shares, Anhui joint force and CIMI group.
This week's point of view
Environmental protection policy continues to advance, and the transformation and upgrading of construction machinery stock equipment is accelerated. In June 16, 2018, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, "on the overall strengthening of ecological environmental protection, resolutely fight against the war of pollution prevention and control", the Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, the Fen Wei plain and other areas are designated as the important battlefield of the blue sky defense. Under the condition of more and more strict environmental protection, the trend of construction machinery below the three standard of the eliminated country is more and more obvious. In 2017, the Beijing municipal government decided that, since December 1, 2017, high emission non road mobile machinery was prohibited in the five ring road (excluding), the administrative region of the Beijing economic and Technological Development Zone, and the Tongzhou District part of the administrative region. With the latest round of PM2.5 source analysis released by Beijing, the area prohibiting the use of high emission non road mobile machinery is likely to continue to expand to the whole city. Taking the data of the Chaoyang District Environmental Protection Bureau of Beijing as an example, from the beginning of 2017 to the end of September, 386 construction machines were inspected and 91 super standard construction machinery were investigated and investigated. 72 of the administrative penalty decisions have been made, and the penalty amount is 360 thousand yuan.
There are about 80 thousand units of excavator stock under the two standard of Tianjin and Beijing, with huge replacement space. According to the association's industry data, by the end of 2016, China's hydraulic excavator 149.8-162.4 million, we estimate that China's three standards account for about 10%-15%, two of the country's two standards account for about 65%, and the rest of the country is below the standard of two. According to the regional sales data in August January 2009, the sales volume of excavators in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei accounts for about 6% of the total sales in the country. -2017 We assume that the current market stock equipment in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is in line with this sales ratio, and the proportion of all kinds of equipment is consistent with the other parts of the country. Then we roughly deduce that there are about 80 thousand excavators in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei region at present two standards and below. If the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region promotes the compulsory reimbursement of two non road vehicles, there will be greater demand for equipment renewal in the region. If it is extended to the whole country, there will be more than 1 million sets of equipment renewal requirements under the national two standards and below.
Risk hints
Macroeconomic risks are lower than expected, and enterprises' historical burden is lower than expected.
