In the first half of 2022, the domestic heavy truck market continued the fatigue in the last few months of last year, and the demand has not improved. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the sales of tractor terminals exceeded 20000 in June, and the average actual sales in the first half of the year was only 17000.
In July, although the commercial vehicle market was still falling, the decline of most market segments was significantly narrower than that of last month. However, the demand side is too "awesome". Even though the sales volume of the heavy truck and tractor market was not high in the same period due to the official implementation of the "national six" in July last year, it is still difficult to "overcome" the current market situation. So, is the tractor market in July a key word? Is there anything else worth paying attention to?
The actual sales of tractors in July was 17500, which fell to below 20000 again
According to the latest terminal sales data, in July 2022, domestic tractor sales were 17500 vehicles (traffic compulsory insurance, excluding exports and military products, the same below), with a month on month decrease of 28%, a year-on-year decrease of 51%, and a decrease of 25 percentage points compared with last month (- 76%). The terminal sales volume of tractor fell below 20000 again after breaking the 20000 vehicle mark in June. Compared with the same period last year, the terminal sales volume of 17500 vehicles in July this year decreased by about 18000, about 49% of the sales volume of the same period last year. This figure is better than the six months in the first half of the year (from January to June this year, the terminal sales volume of no one month exceeded 30% of the same period last year). The terminal sales volume of tractor has experienced "seven consecutive drops" in 2022.
In fact, it is not surprising that the tractor market continued to decline year-on-year in July. On the one hand, the base of the same period of last year is still very high for the current market situation (35500 vehicles, more than 10000 vehicles higher than the highest monthly sales in the first half of this year); On the other hand, it is also the main reason - demand. Although the epidemic has weakened a lot, there are no other favorable conditions in the logistics and transportation market, and it is difficult to stimulate too much terminal demand.
From the monthly trend chart of tractor terminal sales in the past three years, it can be seen that the tractor market this year can almost be described as "close to the ground". The sales curve of the tractor market from January to July this year is only higher than that of February 2020, which was hit by the epidemic. In July this year, the sales volume of 17500 tractors accounted for about 46.67% of the terminal sales volume of the whole heavy truck market (nearly 3 percentage points lower than the 49.3% in June). From January to July this year, the sales volume of tractors accounted for about 43.36% of the terminal sales volume of the whole heavy truck market.
In terms of figures alone, the monthly sales volume of 17500 vehicles can hardly be said to be excellent in any year. From January to July this year, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was only 17200. It should be noted that in the second half of last year, when the heavy truck market was affected by the "six consecutive drops" of the "national six" regulations, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was also close to 30000. However, considering that the current terminal demand is really weak, It is not easy to narrow the year-on-year decline of the tractor terminal market to 51% (the year-on-year decline of 51% in the tractor terminal market in July is the smallest decline this year, and it is also the first time that the year-on-year decline is lower than 60% this year). It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative decline of the tractor terminal market is narrowing month by month, and the cumulative decline after July is 4 percentage points narrower than that after April.
The liberation share is nearly 30%, ranking the first. Foton / Dongfeng compete for the top three, and Ta enters the top six
As a place of war, tractor has always been the most competitive segment in the heavy truck market. When the whole industry goes down, enterprises are more active in fighting for the market, and the monthly ranking changes every month.
In July, no enterprise in the tractor terminal market continued to sell more than 10000 vehicles. The sales volume of Jiefang, SINOTRUK, Dongfeng, Futian and Shaanxi Automobile exceeded 1000 vehicles, and all exceeded 2000 vehicles, with actual sales of 5213, 3204, 2836, 2738 and 2114 vehicles respectively.
It can be seen from the above table that the top ten enterprises of tractor terminal sales in July continued to experience a double-digit decline, with many enterprises falling by more than 50%. Among the top ten enterprises with the most serious decline in sales volume, the sales volume in July decreased by 75% year on year; However, there are also many enterprises such as Jiefang, heavy truck, Dongfeng, Foton and Hanma technology, whose year-on-year decline in July was lower than that of the industry as a whole and outperformed the "overall market". It is worth mentioning that two enterprises, Foton and Hanma technology, have outperformed the tractor market for seven consecutive months this year. In the same pace as the month on month decline of the tractor market in July, the sales volume of the mainstream enterprises in the tractor market decreased month on month in July, and the performance of the top ten enterprises in July was worse than that in June.
From the perspective of market share, the top ten enterprises in the sales of tractor terminals in July accounted for 98.29% of the total market share, and the enterprises after the top ten only sold less than 300 vehicles in total. Among them, FAW Jiefang ranked first with a monthly share of 29.85%, accounting for nearly 30% of the tractor market in July. From January to July this year, Jiefang's cumulative share in the tractor terminal market has reached 29.06%; Sinotruk ranked second with the sales volume of 3204 vehicles, with a monthly share of 18.35%; Dongfeng and Futian, which ranked the 3rd and 4th in sales volume in July, sold 2836 and 2738 vehicles respectively, with a difference of only 98 vehicles, with a monthly share of 16.24% and 15.68% respectively; The monthly sales volume of Shaanxi Automobile Co., Ltd., which ranks the fifth in monthly sales volume, also exceeds 2000 vehicles, with a monthly share of 12.1%. The total share of the top five enterprises reached 92.21% in July (an increase from 88.99% in June), and the top 5 of the tractor industry continues to lead the large forces with a large advantage.
The ranking of the first seven months has changed from month to month, and new energy continues to "stir" the industrial pattern
From January to July this year, the total actual sales of the tractor terminal market was only 120600, a year-on-year decrease of 76%, with a net decrease of 384000, which was only 24% of the accumulated sales of the same period last year, and about the sales of one month in March last year. From January to July of this year, the ranking of tractor terminal sales has changed greatly compared with the ranking at the end of 2021: Foton Motor, which ranked fifth at the end of 2021, temporarily ranked fourth in the industry after July; Universiade heavy truck has risen from the 8th place at the end of 2021 to the 6th place in the current industry; Last year, Hanma technology, which failed to make the top ten at the end of the year, has won the "market" for many months in a row, and now ranks ninth in the industry.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, 6 of the top 10 enterprises in terms of cumulative sales volume from January to July this year achieved an increase in share. The most obvious increases were Foton and Dongfeng, with an increase of 2.4 and 1.22 percentage points respectively; The cumulative share of liberation also increased by more than 1 percentage point, an increase of 1.03%; The cumulative shares of Universiade, Hanma technology and XCMG heavy trucks increased by 0.64%, 0.7% and 0.23% respectively.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, among the top ten enterprises with accumulated sales volume from January to July this year, only Jiefang, SINOTRUK, Dongfeng and XCMG remained unchanged; The ranking of three enterprises, namely Futian, Universiade and Hanma technology, has risen. Among them, Universiade has risen two places from the 8th in the same period last year to the 6th, Hanma technology has risen from the 12th in the same period last year to the 9th in the current industry, and Futian has risen one place to the 4th in the industry. Of course, there are ups and downs, and more than one enterprise's industry ranking from January to July this year dropped compared with the same period last year.
From January to July this year, the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in the sales of heavy truck terminals has reached 4.2%, while in the field of tractors, this proportion has reached 5.61%. Among the 120600 tractors listed in the country this year, 6759 are new energy tractors. It is observed that from January to July of this year, almost all mainstream tractor enterprises listed new energy tractors on the road. As of July, three enterprises have accounted for more than 60% of the new energy in the terminal sales of tractors. Among the tractors sold by XCMG, Hanma technology and beiben this year, new energy tractors accounted for 68.62%, 65.63% and 64.63% respectively, These three enterprises with the highest proportion of new energy tractors are also the top 3 enterprises in the cumulative sales volume of new energy tractors from January to July this year; In addition, the new energy tractors of Sany and SAIC Hongyan also accounted for 31.09% and 27.76% respectively.
Among the top 5 enterprises in the tractor industry, Futian new energy tractor accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 4.19%. It is worth mentioning that among the top 5 enterprises in the industry, Dongfeng, sinotruk and Shaanxi Automobile increased the proportion of new energy models of tractors from January to July compared with January to June.
From January to July this year, most of the enterprises with a high proportion of new energy in the sales volume of tractors achieved the improvement of industry ranking or market share. Take Hanma technology as an example. From January to July this year, Hanma technology has sold 1580 tractors, a year-on-year decrease of 49% (the smallest decrease of mainstream enterprises), and the accumulated share has increased by 0.7% compared with the same period last year. The industry ranking has risen from the 12th place in the same period last year to the 9th place in the industry. The proportion of new energy of tractors sold by Hanma technology this year has reached 65.63%. The new energy tractors have helped Hanma technology to achieve the above "improvement". In addition, the sales volume of Sany tractor in July again rose to the 6th in the monthly list, which was also assisted by its new energy tractor (Sany new energy tractor sold 102 vehicles in July, ranking the second); At the same time, Sany Heavy Truck's Internet shopping in August also contributed a lot to its sales.
Concluding remarks
In 2022, the competition in the field of tractor has been extremely fierce since the beginning of the year. After seven rounds of fierce competition, the market pattern has quietly "changed"; On the other hand, the competition for the tractor market this year is not only in the competition of traditional models, but also in the competition of new energy models. At present, the "dominant" enterprises in the field of new energy tractors are stirring up the industry pattern of tractors.
In August 2021, the sales volume of tractor terminals was only 24800, which was the second lowest monthly sales volume of the year. It seems that it is not so difficult to win. Will the tractor market reap the first growth of this year in August 2022?
