This market survey in the field of construction machinery circulation in China is conducted from August 9 to 18, 2022. In the following report, the range of excavator models is: small excavator ≤ 18.5t, medium excavator ≤ 18.5t ~ 28.5t, large excavator ≥ 28.5t; The provinces covered by each region are: East China (Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian and Shanghai), South China (Guangxi, Guangdong and Hainan), central China (Hubei, Hunan and Henan), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia), Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou and Tibet), Northwest China (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang), Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang).
Domestic excavator market expectation feedback in August 2022
1. Expected year-on-year growth of overall sales volume
Most of the surveyed agents expect that the domestic excavator market will decline in different degrees in August 2022, with 17.22% of the surveyed agents expecting a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, 12.54 percentage points lower than that of the previous month; 9.11%, 18.56%, 30.94% and 20.11% of the surveyed agents are expected to decline 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year-on-year. Only 2.67% and 1.39% of the agents respectively expect that the market in August will be flat or slightly increased year on year.
2. Expected year-on-year growth of small excavator sales
91.94% of the surveyed agents expect that the domestic small excavator market will decline in different degrees year-on-year in August 2022, 4.49 percentage points lower than the same period in July. 13.94% of the surveyed agents expect a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, and 5.78%, 46.72% and 25.50% of the surveyed agents expect a year-on-year decline of 41% - 50%, 21% - 40% and 0% - 20%. 5.67% and 2.39% of the surveyed agents respectively expect that the small excavation market in August will be flat or slightly increased year on year. In the short term, the expectation of year-on-year reduction of small excavation is narrowing and improving.
3. Expected year-on-year growth of sales volume of medium-sized excavators
97.50% of the surveyed agents expect that the domestic medium-sized excavator market will decline in different degrees year-on-year in August 2022, 8.22 percentage points worse than last month. 28.22% of the surveyed agents expect a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, and 13.61%, 38.56% and 17.11% of the surveyed agents expect a year-on-year decline of 41% - 50%, 21% - 40% and 0% - 20%. 1.50% of the agents expect to be flat year-on-year, and 1.00% of the agents expect that the market will grow year-on-year in mid August. In the short term, the expectation of the year-on-year reduction of the medium excavation is narrowing, but the market demand is generally not optimistic, and there is a possibility of further deterioration.
4. Year on year growth of sales volume of large excavators
96.44% of the surveyed agents expect that the domestic large excavator market will decline in different degrees year-on-year in August 2022, 8.35 percentage points worse than last month. 14.39% of the surveyed agents expect a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, 21.06%, 34.28% and 26.72% of the surveyed agents expect a year-on-year decline of 41% - 50%, 21% - 40% and 0% - 20%. 3.56% of the agents are expected to be flat year-on-year; No agent has predicted that the market of big dig in August will grow year on year. Based on this, the short-term market demand of big dig is seriously cooling.
5. Statistics of customer's equipment operation rate in August 2022
In the first week of August 2022, 30.91% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate was lower than 40%, which was 3.64 percentage points worse than that at the end of July; 10.91% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate exceeded 60%, which was basically the same as that at the end of July; The proportion of customers with 50% ~ 60% operating rate was 20.00%, a decrease of 3.64 percentage points. From the perspective of trend, August continues the trend of July, and the operating rate of customers' equipment in various places continues to deteriorate to varying degrees. It is expected that the operating rate of equipment in various places will not have further significant improvement until the end of August and the beginning of September.
6. In August 2022, the year-on-year change of new orders for complete machine sales is expected
83.05% of the surveyed agents expect that the new orders of complete machine sales in August 2022 will decrease year-on-year, with a decrease of 8.62 percentage points compared with the previous month. 16.95% of the surveyed agents expect that the new orders of complete machine sales will increase year-on-year.
Domestic excavator market price monitoring feedback in July 2022
In July 2022, the sales transaction price of domestic excavators changed month on month
In July 2022, the sales transaction price of domestic large-scale excavators decreased by 2.57% month on month compared with June, with a decrease of 1.12 percentage points compared with the previous month; The sales transaction price of medium-sized excavators decreased by 2.26% month on month, 0.08 percentage points lower than that of last month; The sales transaction price of small excavators decreased by 1.01% month on month, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points.
Feedback on domestic excavator market inventory at the end of July 2022
By the end of July 2022, the total inventory of the surveyed agents in the domestic market reached 5220 units. The average inventory increased by 2 sets over the same period last month, with an increase of 5.88%; Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30t is 6, which is the same as the previous period. The average inventory of 19-30t medium excavators is 13, an increase of 1 month on month. The average inventory of small excavators below 19T is 17, an increase of 1 month on month.
Feedback on domestic construction machinery market risk from July to August 2022
1. Statistics on overdue rate of customer financing, mortgage or installment repayment in July 2022
At the end of July 2022, in the domestic market, the average overdue rate of phase 1, phase 2 and phase 3 of the surveyed customers' financing, mortgage or installment repayment were 7.67%, 5.87% and 5.26%, respectively, 1.12, 0.31 and - 0.15 percentage points lower than the end of last month. The overall overdue situation was slightly improved.
2. In August 2022, the expected judgment of overdue repayment rate of customers
In August 2022, 70.91% of the surveyed agents expected that the overdue repayment rate of customers would increase compared with that in July, and another 29.09% of the surveyed agents expected that the overdue repayment rate of customers would decrease month on month, 7.81 percentage points lower than that in the previous month.
3. In July 2022, the customer's equipment engineering fund collection rate statistics
At the end of July 2022, the average value of the customer's equipment project payment collection rate was 53.53%, 1.45 percentage points worse than that of the same period of last month, with the maximum value of 98% and the minimum value of 0%, 1 and 5 percentage points lower respectively. The customer's payment collection situation has deteriorated slightly in the short term.
4. Statistics of changes in customer equipment shift fees from July to August 2022
In July 2022, the machine shift fee income of customer equipment decreased by 5.56% for large excavators, 3.88% for medium excavators and 4.17% for small excavators, respectively, 0.29%, 0.95% and - 1.24% higher than that of the previous month. The decrease of machine shift fee income of small excavators was slightly expanded, and the decrease of machine shift fee income of medium and large excavators was slightly improved.
In August 2022, it is estimated that the revenue of the shift fee of the customer's equipment will decrease by 1.51% month on month for large excavators, 0.61% month on month for medium excavators and 0.56% month on month for small excavators.
