"It is expected that the construction machinery industry is expected to stabilize and recover in the next few months of this year, and the economic operation situation of the industry will gradually improve. The main indicators of the whole industry will show a trend of 'low in the front and high in the rear' At the 19th China Construction machinery development high level forum held on August 23, Su Zimeng, President of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said:.
Xia Zhihong, general manager of Shanhe intelligent, said that since the beginning of this year, the industry has faced periodic adjustment. Construction machinery enterprises have set their eyes on overseas and increased the research and development of digital, electric and international products and technologies. In the first half of the year, the competitive advantage of China's construction machinery industry in the international market was prominent, the orders of foreign construction machinery were hot, and the electrification process of construction machinery was accelerated.
"Some people may think that the electrification of the construction machinery industry is very far away, and sany does not think so." Xiang Wenbo, chairman of Sany Heavy Industry, disclosed at the forum that Sany has greatly reduced its investment and R & D in traditional energy driven engineering machinery and equipment, and the focus of new investment and key R & D has shifted to the new energy field.
The whole year is expected to be "low in the front and high in the rear"
"Taking into account the previous year's base, domestic and foreign market demand and other factors, the construction machinery market has gradually stabilized and rebounded with the continuous increase of stable investment, the acceleration of infrastructure investment, the acceleration of the use of special bonds, the release of new loans from policy banks, the improvement of energy and resource supply guarantee capacity, and the acceleration of major projects. At the same time, the export momentum of some products is good." Su Zimeng said.
Previously, Xiang Wenbo made a judgment of "low in the first quarter and high in the second half" when predicting the industry situation in 2022: "there will be some drop in the first quarter and the first half of the year, but there may be a rebound in the second half of the year."
Su Zimeng believes that under the guidance of policy orientations such as stable expectations and stable employment, China's infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will grow steadily. In addition, the steady growth measures in various regions and fields will continue to be implemented and China's construction machinery exports will continue to maintain strong resilience. It is expected that the industry will continue to show a stable operation trend in 2023.
A recent visit by a reporter from Shanghai Securities News found that since the beginning of the second half of the year, leading enterprises of construction machinery have generally ceased to be "pessimistic". "After the first half of the 'shallow V' adjustment, the worst days of the construction machinery industry have basically passed. Next, we began to be optimistic." Recently, a person in charge of a leading construction machinery enterprise said.
Some leading enterprises of construction machinery have shown their confidence with real gold and silver. In July this year, Zoomlion issued a repurchase plan, which planned to repurchase A-share shares with its own funds of no more than 3.987 billion yuan. The amount of repurchase was 2.5% to 5% of the total issued share capital of the listed company, and the price of the repurchase shares was no more than 9.19 yuan / share.
The sales volume of some products increased steadily
The latest data shows that the sales volume of some construction machinery products has started to rise steadily. Su Zimeng said that the data since June showed that the main economic indicators of the industry had changed the downward trend, and the sales volume of some products had gradually increased steadily, and the decline of main economic indicators had narrowed. "The excavator, grader and crawler crane according to the statistics of the association achieved positive growth in July compared with the same month last year, with an increase of 3.42%, 16.4% and 27.6% respectively.".
The monthly sales data of excavators is particularly interesting. According to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 17939 excavators of various types were sold in July 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 3.42%; Among them, there were 9250 domestic units, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%; 8689 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 72.8%. From January to July 2022, 161033 excavators were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 33.2%; Among them, the domestic sales volume was 100374 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 51.3%; 60659 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 72.3%.
It is not difficult to see that internationalization has played a greater role in supporting the foundation. Although there is still a slight decrease in the month on month ratio, this is the first time since May 2021 that the monthly sales volume of excavators in China has achieved positive year-on-year growth.
According to a research report, from July to December 2021, the monthly sales volume of excavators dropped to around 20000 units, and the year-on-year growth pressure of sales volume in the second half of 2022 decreased. Under the background of stable growth, it is expected that more quantities will be concentrated in the second half of the year. The centralized commencement of the project may bring new demand for excavators. It is expected that the sales volume of excavators will achieve positive growth year on year.
Aiming at the "three modernizations" strategy
Liang Wengen, the founder of Sany Heavy Industry, once proposed that the construction machinery enterprises are facing new changes, "either turn over or turn over". At this forum, Xiang Wenbo said that this is not alarmist talk. The new technological revolution, the new energy revolution, especially the advent of the digital age and the intelligent age, are both opportunities and challenges for the construction machinery industry.
"The new technological revolution is subversive. The new technological revolution includes two aspects: one is digitization and the other is the new energy revolution. Construction machinery enterprises may be eliminated if they do not adapt to this new era." Xiang Wenbo said, "this is Sany's cognition, and sany is also acting according to this cognition."
It is reported that Sany Heavy Industry and sany group are vigorously implementing three major strategies - digitization, electrification and internationalization. "Sany is not passive to adapt to the requirements of electrification, but to promote the upgrading of electrification of the whole industry through its own innovation." Said Xiang Wenbo.
Internationalization is one of the core strategies of Sany Heavy Industry and sany group. "In Sany, if you want to be promoted, you must have overseas experience. Sany is continuously taking measures to invest high-quality resources into internationalization." Xiang Wenbo said.
Su Zimeng said that in recent years, the rapid development of digitization and intellectualization in the construction machinery industry and the deepening of applications such as Internet, 5g, big data and artificial intelligence have promoted the transformation and upgrading of industrial enterprises focusing on intelligent products, intelligent manufacturing and intelligent management.
It is reported that enterprises in the construction machinery industry have developed and manufactured a variety of electric, hydrogen and hybrid new energy construction machinery products. According to the association, the proportion of electric drive products in forklifts has increased from 27.7% in 2012 to 60% in 2021; Electric or hybrid mining vehicles, loaders, excavators, cranes, concrete machinery, etc. have been mass produced.
According to the data, the export volume of China's construction machinery products increased from US $19.16 billion in 2012 to US $34.03 billion in 2021. Among them, the export of high-tech products showed a rapid growth trend. The export of Crawler excavators increased from 14522 in 2012 to 106417 in 2021, an increase of 633%. In the first half of 2022, the export volume of China's construction machinery was 19.89 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 32.3%.
Opportunities and challenges coexist
"In the smart industry city, with the support of digital applications and intelligent equipment, our large and medium-sized excavator equipment can basically realize the production of steel plates on the left and excavators on the right. Now the intelligent manufacturing production line can produce one excavator off the line every 6 minutes, and the overall production efficiency is exponentially improved." Zoomlion said.
The report released by the Forum on the same day pointed out that it is expected that the application of big data, Internet and artificial intelligence technology in the construction machinery industry will be further deepened during the "14th five year plan" period, and the application of new control technology, new energy, new materials and autonomous industrial software will achieve fruitful results. The new high-tech construction machinery has broad development space.
However, Su Zimeng reminded that the market stock of construction machinery in some fields has yet to be digested, which will bring challenges to the stable operation of the industry to varying degrees. "We hope that relevant enterprises can make rational analysis of the market demand of each product line and set reasonable expectations. We should reasonably arrange and organize production according to the market demand with the purpose of meeting the needs of users. At the same time, we should strengthen fund management, channel management and risk control."
Xia Zhihong believes that at present, the state continues to increase investment in new infrastructure and accelerate the promotion of major national strategic projects. It is expected that the construction machinery industry will still have a broad market. At the same time, we should also see that the profitability of construction machinery enterprises has declined, and some disorderly competition still exists, and the urgency of high-quality development is more prominent.
Zeng Guang'an, chairman of Liugong, said that from the long-term perspective, the construction machinery industry is likely to enter into cyclical adjustment again. Cyclical fluctuations will become a long-term feature of the construction machinery industry, and the industry cycle will superimpose the industry transformation. In the future, new technology will become a significant feature of industry transformation, and the internationalization process of China's construction machinery enterprises will advance by leaps and bounds. At the same time, the competition among leading enterprises may intensify, and the industry may enter the low gross profit stage.
A person in charge of a leading construction machinery enterprise said that China's construction machinery industry has a bright future, but high-quality development still has a long way to go. There are still many shortcomings in core technologies in key fields such as core basic components, advanced basic processes, key basic materials, high-end general chips, and basic software products.
