In August 2022, China's construction machinery market index, i.e. CMI, was 101.93, a year-on-year decrease of 5.23% and a slight increase of 5.57% month on month (according to the CMI judgment standard, the index in August is approaching the contraction range, and the market continues to decline year on year. Be vigilant against the accumulation of market downside risks).
In August, the year-on-year decline of China's construction machinery market index narrowed by 6.95 percentage points, and the month on month decline was adjusted back by 11.06 percentage points. This indicates that although the domestic construction machinery market is still affected by high temperature, flood season and repeated epidemics, resulting in insufficient commencement of terminal projects, the market has not continued to deteriorate significantly in the short term, and has begun to step out of the annual off-season.
As of August 22, the operating rates of northwest, South China, East China, northeast, North China, southwest and central China were about 52.70%, 51.58%, 51.33%, 50.75%, 50.38%, 46.57% and 45.56% respectively. Compared with the previous period (August 8), it increased by 1.8, 1.5, - 0.3, 0.5, - 1.1, 0.7 and 0.9 percentage points respectively.
Compared with the situation in the middle and late August and the end of July, the improvement of the operating rate in most regions is not significant, and some provinces in the northwest and South China are slightly better. On the whole, the operation of terminal equipment in the domestic construction machinery market in August is close to that in July, or slightly increased or decreased.
In the CMI index, the inventory index fed back by the manufacturer group increased by 1.8 percentage points compared with the previous period, and the production index increased by 0.5 percentage points; The new order index fed back by the agent group survey decreased by 18.7 percentage points year-on-year, slightly increased by 2.4 percentage points month on month, and the user price index for the market front-line survey decreased by 1.57% year-on-year.
According to the data released by the excavator branch of China Construction Machinery Industry Association a few days ago, the 26 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in July 2022 sold 17939 sets of various mining machinery products in July 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; Among them, 9250 units were sold in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 24.9%; 8689 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 72.8%. Among them, the domestic market is 430 sets lower than our expectation, which is basically in line with our expected trend.
From the perspective of market terminals, in the first three weeks of August 2022, the operating hours of market monitored excavators in the domestic circulation field decreased by 13.15% year-on-year and 2.13% month on month.
From the perspective of increased investment on the demand side, the growth rate of investment in water conservancy, public infrastructure and non-ferrous metal mining industry has picked up, while the investment in other related industries is not ideal. In particular, the decline in real estate investment, construction in progress and new construction is still expanding, and the possibility of improvement in the short term is extremely low.
From January to July 2022, the fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 31981.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month.
From January to June, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries) increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 14.5%, the investment in public facilities management increased by 11.7%, the investment in road transportation decreased by 0.2%, and the investment in railway transportation decreased by 5.0%. The growth rate increased by 1.8%, 0.8%, 0 and 0.6 percentage points respectively.
From January to July, the investment in the mining industry increased by 8.3% year-on-year, 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month; Among them, coal investment increased by 33.0%, and the growth rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points; The investment in ferrous metal, non-ferrous metal and non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry increased by 58.2%, 21.3% and 21.6% respectively, and only non-ferrous metal achieved continuous growth compared with the previous six months.
From January to July, manufacturing investment increased by 9.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points lower than last month; Among them, the investment in technological transformation of manufacturing industry increased by 12.5% year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points higher than the total investment in manufacturing industry; The proportion of technological transformation investment in total manufacturing investment was 41.5%.
From January to July, the investment in real estate development was 7946.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points over the previous month. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 25.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points; The construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the newly started area of houses decreased by 36.1%, deteriorating by 0.9 and 1.7 percentage points respectively.
In terms of regions, the investment in the eastern region increased by 4.1%, the investment in the central region increased by 10.1%, the investment in the western region increased by 7.9%, and the investment in the northeast region increased by 0.1%, down 0.4, 0.6, 0.1 and 1.0 percentage points respectively over the previous six months.
From January to July, the top 10 regions with year-on-year growth rate of investment were Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hubei Province, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Gansu Province, Zhejiang Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi Province, Fujian Province and Jiangxi Province. However, from January to June, Fujian Province replaced Anhui Province in the top 10. However, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the vast majority of China is flat or has retreated. Only Xinjiang, Shanxi, Beijing, Shanxi, Liaoning, Guangxi, Jilin, Tibet and Shanghai have increased compared with the previous six months. However, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in Guangdong, Qinghai, Jilin, Tibet, Tianjin and Shanghai is still negative.
According to the project statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July 2022, the completed investment of projects with a planned total investment of 100 million yuan or more increased by 10.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated for two consecutive months; The contribution rate to the growth of total investment was as high as 95.4%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points over the first half of the year; The total investment was increased by 5.5 percentage points. In the next stage, we should give full play to the key role of effective investment, solidly promote the preparatory work of important investment projects, make good use of special debts, speed up the construction of projects, give play to the traction of major projects and the role of government investment, stimulate the vitality of private investment, and promote the steady growth of investment.
The increase in the total investment of large-scale projects has not substantially improved the number of projects in the field of infrastructure construction and the availability of project funds. Limited by various subjective and objective factors, the improvement of construction machinery and equipment procurement demand transmitted to the terminal first-line market is very limited.
In late August 2022, compared with the same period in July, we can see that the downturn trend of most regional markets is consistent with that of last month. On the whole, the market is still affected by the annual cycle and is in the off-season.
By incorporating the excavator sales data and other related index data in July 2022 into the monitoring and forecasting data model of China's construction machinery market, we predict that the domestic excavator market sales will be 9456 sets in August 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 23.43%. The forecast data will be updated monthly according to the upstream and downstream economic, investment and sales data as well as the real-time feedback of the first-line market.
