Achieving the "double carbon" goal is a broad and profound change. To promote this multidimensional, three-dimensional and systematic project, we must fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, master scientific working methods, and effectively improve our ability to control the situation, solve problems, and promote development. We should, in accordance with the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, improve our strategic thinking ability, apply the system concept throughout the whole process of the "double carbon" work, pay attention to handling the major relationships between development and emission reduction, overall and local, long-term and short-term goals, government and market, and vigorously and orderly promote the restructuring of China's economic structure and energy structure, and change the mode of production and lifestyle.
Achieve greater development in green transformation
How to deal with the relationship between development and emission reduction?
Development is the foundation and key to solving all problems in China. Addressing global climate change originates from development and can only be solved through better development. Carbon peak and carbon neutralization, on the surface, are climate and environmental issues, but in fact, they are issues of development model transformation.
If we continue to follow the traditional extensive growth mode characterized by "high input, high consumption and high emissions" and continue to work hard and fast at any cost, the realization of the "double carbon" target will undoubtedly hinder economic growth; If it is in the green transformation mode, the development connotation, resource conditions, business mode, enterprise organization mode and institutional mechanism will change accordingly. The promotion of "double carbon" and economic growth are mutually reinforcing.
There is a good saying: along the old map, you can't find the new continent. At present, we are in the transition period of the old and new models, and our thinking and understanding should also keep pace with the times. If we look at "double carbon" in the old way of development, we will see challenges and resistance, and our actions will only stagnate; If we look at "double carbon" from the new perspective of development, we will see opportunities and motivation, and we will be more proactive in our work.
Zhang Yongsheng, director of the Institute of ecological civilization of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the relationship between "double carbon" and economic growth is essentially the relationship between environment and growth. Theoretically, it has always been thought that the relationship between the two is an inverted U-shaped curve, that is, the environment will be sacrificed in the process of economic growth. When the economy develops to a certain level and is able to bear the cost of environmental governance, the environment can be improved. In the dimension of carbon emissions, more than 130 countries and regions have committed to carbon neutrality, of which more than 70% are developing countries. This means that with the rapid development of new energy, economic development can take off in a low-carbon state.
On the issue of the relationship between environment and development, China has long been free from the traditional concept of "pollution first and governance later", that is, from the conflict between development and environmental protection in the past, to the mutual compatibility later, and then to the new concept of "green water and green mountains are golden mountains and silver mountains". Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, under the guidance of the new development concept, China has realized the coordinated progress of ecological environment protection and economic development. Facts have proved that taking the path of ecological priority and green development has not affected economic growth, but has created a large number of new growth opportunities and improved the quality of economic development.
Data show that compared with 2005, China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2019 decreased by 48.1%, equivalent to a reduction of about 5.62 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, a corresponding reduction of about 11.92 million tons of sulfur dioxide emissions and 11.3 million tons of nitrogen oxide emissions. Over the same period, China's GDP grew more than four times, and 95% of the poor people were lifted out of poverty. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased from 41.3% to 53.9%, the proportion of coal consumption decreased from 72.4% to 57.7%, the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy increased from 7.4% to 15.3%, and the average life expectancy of residents increased from 72.9 years to 77.3 years.
Taking new energy vehicles as an example, we can better understand the relationship between "double carbon" and economic growth. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 3.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 1.6 times. It is precisely because of the blowout growth of new energy vehicles that China's automobile production and sales have ended the three-year decline since 2018. Behind the new energy vehicles is a huge infrastructure and industrial system, which will become a new important economic growth point. It can be seen that if there is no new energy vehicle, the traditional automobile industry will have negative growth; With new energy vehicles, cars will become a new engine to drive China's economic growth. The rapid development of this industry is driven by the goal of "double carbon".
Historically, China is still at the stage of rapid development of industrialization and new urbanization. The industrial structure is too heavy, the energy structure is too coal, the time window is too tight, and the technical reserve is insufficient. The task of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization is quite arduous. To promote carbon peak and carbon neutralization, we must adhere to the principle of seeking truth from facts, proceed from reality in everything, respect the law and grasp the rhythm. It is necessary to strengthen the bottom line thinking, adhere to the principle of "standing before breaking", properly handle the relationship between pollution reduction and carbon reduction and energy security, industrial chain supply chain security, food security and people's normal life, effectively deal with the economic, financial and social risks that may accompany the process of green and low-carbon transformation, prevent over reaction and ensure safe carbon reduction.
Play a good game of chess
How to deal with the relationship between the whole and the part? It is also necessary to fully consider the objective reality of regional resource distribution and industrial division of labor, study and determine the direction of industrial structure adjustment and the "double carbon" action plan of various localities, and do not go in one step and adopt a "one size fits all" approach.
To promote carbon peak and carbon neutrality, which will affect the whole process and all aspects of economic and social development, requires the joint participation and efforts of local governments, industries, enterprises and the public. We must thoroughly implement the decisions and arrangements of the central authorities, unify our will and strengthen our confidence, pool our wisdom and pool our strength to play a good game of chess for the whole country.
On the one hand, adhere to the goal guidance and strengthen the integrity, systematization and coordination of the work.
In terms of international commitments, the "double carbon" goal proposed by China is an overall goal, not an individual goal of a certain region, field and industry in China; From the perspective of planning and deployment, "double carbon" is a systematic project. It is necessary to strengthen top-level design, pay attention to policy coordination, and not go it alone; In terms of promoting implementation, it is necessary to adhere to the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, take charge of the overall situation, coordinate all parties, give play to the advantages of the system, and concentrate efforts on major issues.
On the other hand, grass-roots practice can not mechanically copy documents, and must work creatively.
To promote the "double carbon" strategy, we should adhere to the principle of proceeding from reality, seeking truth from facts, implementing policies by categories, adapting measures to local conditions and making accurate efforts. Based on the objective situation and basic laws, it is impossible for different regions, different industries and different fields to achieve the "double carbon" goals in a uniform manner. Policies and measures should also avoid "one size fits all".
Specifically, regions with basically stable carbon emissions should consolidate the achievements of emission reduction and further reduce carbon emissions on the basis of taking the lead in achieving carbon peak. Regions with lighter industrial structure and better energy structure should adhere to green and low-carbon development and strive to take the lead in achieving carbon peak. Regions with heavy industrial structure and coal based energy structure and resource-based regions should put energy conservation and carbon reduction in a prominent position, vigorously optimize and adjust the industrial structure and energy structure, gradually decouple carbon emission growth from economic growth, and strive to achieve carbon peak with the whole country.
To play a good game of chess for the whole country, we should not only make a good strategic arrangement, but also make good decisions at key points. In order to promote "double carbon", all departments and localities should bear in mind the "big country", dare to take good actions, and strive to find the optimal solution in the system reform and seek to maximize the overall benefits.
The development of high energy consumption industries has become the focus issue under the "double carbon" goal. We can neither shut it down nor let it go. "To resolutely curb the blind development of the 'two highs' projects is not to curb their optimization and adjustment, but to achieve a scientific layout under total amount control." Ge Honglin, President of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, proposed that the cross regional layout of high energy consumption industries should be optimized as soon as possible, so that the whole country can play a chess game. We will accelerate the elimination of advanced production capacity from backward production capacity, allocate projects to areas where clean energy accounts for a high proportion, and improve the level of cleaning, intensification and modernization.
In fact, there is much to be done to jump out of the thinking of "one mu and three parts of land", promote the deep integration of factor endowments in various regions, and optimize the layout of productivity. The economy of the eastern and central regions is relatively developed and the total energy consumption is large, but the renewable energy resources are insufficient, and the land resources are increasingly tense. While undertaking the western power, these regions will transfer some high energy consuming industries to the western region in an orderly manner, which will expand the local consumption capacity of renewable energy power in the western region. As long as we make good use of the situation and straighten out the system and mechanism, the advantages of low-carbon coordinated development in the eastern, central and western regions can be brought into play.
It is also an important way to promote the "double carbon" work. Since July 2010, relevant departments have launched three batches of low-carbon city pilot projects to explore a win-win mode of emission reduction and development. Practice shows that the low-carbon development effect of pilot cities is higher than that of non pilot areas, and the sooner the low-carbon pilot is launched, the better the emission reduction effect of cities. We will support qualified localities, key industries and key enterprises to actively explore and form a number of replicable and replicable effective models, which will provide useful experience for China to achieve the "double carbon" goal on schedule.
A small victory is a big one
How to deal with the relationship between short-term goals and long-term goals? It is also necessary to take a long-term view, overcome the idea of being eager for quick success and quick profits and being eager for success, grasp the rhythm and intensity of carbon reduction, and seek truth from facts, step by step and continue to make efforts.
Some time ago, various localities actively promoted the "double carbon" work, but there are also some misunderstandings in practice. Some of them are rash in pursuing "moving carbon reduction" in isolation from reality, making the long-term goals short-term and the system goals fragmented, which has an impact on normal production and life; Some people are biased, regard carbon peak as "climbing the peak", blindly embark on "two high" projects, leaving future problems for future development; There are also those who follow the trend, chanting slogans, hyping concepts, pasting labels indiscriminately, and are keen to do superficial work. These distorted and distorted practices have exposed the problems of poor behavior and disorderly behavior, and reflected that some people have not fully understood the "double carbon" and have not adapted to their work, and even have some anxiety and panic in their psychology.
There is an inherent logic to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization. Carbon peaking is the basis and premise of carbon neutralization, and carbon neutralization is the tight constraint of carbon peaking. The time and level of carbon peak directly affect the time and difficulty of carbon neutralization: the earlier the peak time is, the less the pressure of emission reduction will be; The higher the peak, the more difficult it is to achieve carbon neutralization. China adopts the peak cutting development mode instead of the "carbon charging" mode, aiming to lower the peak position as much as possible and create better conditions for carbon neutralization.
China's promotion of "double carbon" will achieve the largest reduction in carbon emission intensity in the world and achieve carbon neutrality from the peak of carbon emission in the shortest time in history. The urgency and arduousness of achieving the "double carbon" goal require us to coordinate the near and long term, grasp the timing and efficiency, and effectively integrate the short-term, medium and long-term time sequence to achieve the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 as scheduled. To fight this protracted war well, we should not only strengthen our strategic determination, but also pay attention to strategy and tactics, guide phased tasks with long-term planning, and support the achievement of strategic objectives with the realization of tactical objectives.
On the one hand, we should be realistic and pragmatic, grasp the law, and pay attention to practical results. Marathons can't run hundreds of meters, and can't look at medium - and long-term goals and tasks with short-term thinking. For example, to achieve the "double carbon" goal, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption in China needs to be increased from less than 16% at present to more than 80% by 2060. The core of the problem is how to exit fossil energy smoothly and ensure that the exit will not cause excessive economic losses. If we are eager for quick success and quick profits and engage in short-term behavior, it will only backfire. It is necessary to refine the stage objectives in the process of nearly 40 years and make continuous efforts. According to the central government's plan, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will be increased to about 20% and 25% respectively during the "14th five year plan" and "15th five year plan" periods; By 2060, we will comprehensively establish a green, low-carbon, circular development economic system and a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system. Our energy utilization efficiency will reach the international advanced level, and the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80%. For another example, some key technologies also need to set a window period, clarify the development direction of the technology, and carry out targeted research. With the "timetable" and the "road map", as long as we maintain strategic patience, grasp the rhythm, and exchange time for space, we can finally turn big challenges into small problems and achieve the expected goals.
On the other hand, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. We should firmly adhere to the green mountains and not relax, base ourselves on the current situation, and do what we should do and what we can do well. The 14th Five Year Plan period is the key to achieving carbon peak. All parties should try their best to do a good job in planning the layout and tamping the foundation, so as to prepare for the turning point and create a new situation. In accordance with the central government's deployment, we will solidly carry out the "ten actions to reach the peak of carbon", and key industries and fields must rise to the challenge, strive to overcome difficulties, and make due contributions to the development of peak shaving. At the same time, we will actively adapt to the all-round and deep-seated changes and impacts of the long-term vision of carbon neutrality on the economy and society. We will make long-term plans and scientific plans, accelerate the transformation of mode and structure, strictly prevent high-carbon path locking, and promote high-quality green development.
There is no ready-made template and experience for China to promote the "double carbon". We can only adhere to the problem orientation and goal orientation, and show the strength to open up a new road and build a bridge in the face of water. We can go to the future through learning while doing and innovation. We should strengthen the interaction between theory and practice, gradually sum up experiences and lessons, find laws, improve practices, and constantly expand the achievements in dynamic adjustment.
A blueprint is drawn to the end, and one stick after another. In particular, the "key minority" should establish a correct view of political achievements and values, and strive to promote the "double carbon" with the idea that success does not have to be mine and success must have my mind, so as to open up a new path for promoting high-quality development and realizing the harmonious coexistence between man and nature.
The combination of a promising government and an effective market
How to deal with the relationship between the government and the market?
To achieve the "double carbon" goal, we need not only top-level design and strategic guidance, but also up-down linkage and multi-party cooperation. More importantly, we need to establish a scientific and sound governance system, build a sound management system, market mechanism, policy support, innovation environment and social atmosphere, and promote the realization of the common goals throughout the country.
First, give full play to the decisive role of the market in allocating resources, guide all kinds of resources and factors to gather for green and low-carbon development, make good use of market mechanisms such as carbon trading and green finance, and stimulate the endogenous power and innovation vitality of various market players in green and low-carbon transformation.
Since its launch in July 2021, the national carbon emission trading market has been included in more than 2000 key emission units in the power generation industry, covering more than 4 billion tons of carbon emissions from enterprises, making it the largest carbon market in the world covering greenhouse gas emissions. On the whole, the carbon market operates in a healthy and orderly manner, and the transaction price rises steadily. The role of promoting enterprises to reduce greenhouse gases and accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation is initially shown.
The carbon market is an institutional arrangement that compacts the responsibility of emission reduction to enterprises. Although the key emission enterprises included in the carbon market have increased the policy constraints and emission reduction costs of carbon emissions, the carbon market also provides more flexible tools through the trading mechanism to help enterprises perform at lower costs. It can be said that the carbon market brings not only constraints but also incentives to enterprises. According to the deployment of the central government, we will further promote the construction of carbon emission rights trading and energy use rights trading, and give full play to the role of market mechanism.
Second, we should give full play to the role of the government, speed up the establishment of rules and regulations, do a good job in anticipatory guidance and basic work, and promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development in an orderly manner.
It is necessary to speed up the establishment of the system and policy system to promote green and low-carbon development, do a good job in the combination of laws, plans, rules, standards and publicity and education, strengthen overall coordination and supervision and assessment, and do a good job in the supervision and assessment of task decomposition and Implementation.
We should pay attention to giving full play to the "leverage" role of economic policies. For example, when implementing tax incentives for environmental protection, energy and water conservation, new energy and clean energy vehicles and vessels, we will curb unreasonable demand through tax regulation and study the use of carbon tax to restrain high emission behavior. As well as the government's efforts to increase the procurement of green and low-carbon products, encourage local governments to carry out green smart home appliances in the countryside and exchange the old for the new, and promote green and low-carbon consumption.
At the same time, it is necessary to deepen the reform of energy and related fields, dare to break the barriers of interests, and vigorously remove the institutional and institutional obstacles that restrict green and low-carbon development. We will promote the improvement of the electricity price and power dispatching trading mechanism, promote the market-oriented trading of electricity, and constantly improve the supporting mechanism and market model that are in line with the operation of the new power system.
Thirdly, the government and the market each have their own division of labor and their own strengths. They should coordinate and cooperate with each other to make concerted efforts, and give full play to their maximum efficiency through "using both hands".
More than ten years ago, based on the renewable energy promotion law, China promoted the iterative progress of photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation, energy storage technology, electric vehicles and other industries, and has achieved remarkable results. Take photovoltaic power generation as an example. 10 years ago, it was still necessary to provide high subsidies for on grid electricity prices. Now it can be on grid at competitive prices. Practice has shown that in accordance with the principle of government guidance and market leadership, relevant parties have made great achievements in actively assisting the development of emerging industries. However, financial subsidies must be timely and effective, and the development of enterprises ultimately depends on their own hematopoietic function.
According to the calculation of mainstream institutions at home and abroad, the scale of capital investment required for "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization" is between 150 trillion yuan and 300 trillion yuan, equivalent to an average annual investment of 3.75 trillion yuan to 7.5 trillion yuan. To meet the huge capital demand, we must carry out market operation and mobilize social forces to participate extensively. We should give full play to the guiding role of government investment, actively develop green finance, and build an investment and financing system compatible with carbon peak and carbon neutrality.
Achieving the "double carbon" goal depends on innovation driven. Technological progress can effectively reduce the green premium and promote transformation while maintaining stability. Compared with the international advanced level, China's green and low-carbon technologies are still in a "follow-up" state as a whole, and the major strategic technology reserves of green and low-carbon are insufficient. We must give full play to the institutional advantages of concentrating our efforts on major issues, build a new national system, strengthen scientific and technological and institutional innovation, accelerate the green and low-carbon scientific and technological revolution, lay out major key technologies of low-carbon, zero carbon and negative carbon in advance, and firmly grasp the core technologies in our own hands.
