After the sales volume of the heavy truck market narrowed to 41% in July, is the year-on-year decline of the sales volume of heavy trucks in China further narrowed in August, or has it achieved a small year-on-year growth?
In August, the sales volume was basically the same month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 12%
The heavy truck market fell again in August. According to the preliminary data, in August 2022, China's heavy truck market sold about 45000 vehicles (Invoicing caliber), which was basically the same as that in July this year, down 12% from 51300 vehicles in the same period of the previous year, with a net decrease of 6300 vehicles. 45000 vehicles is the lowest sales volume in August since 2016, lower than the sales volume in August 2016 (49300 vehicles). August this year is also the 15th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year.
However, it should be noted that although the year-on-year decline has narrowed to 12%, this is more due to the low sales base in the same period of last year than the recovery of end market demand. If we make a horizontal comparison, the year-on-year decline of the heavy truck market in August this year is the lowest in eight months of the year, 28 percentage points less than the 40.75% decline in July. However, the situation is not optimistic at all, because the sales volume in July and August last year was a month of precipitous decline. Since the "national six" emission regulations for diesel vehicles were implemented nationwide on July 1 last year, the sales volume of last year was mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. After July 1, the sales volume in July quickly dropped from 158000 in June to 76000, a month on month decrease of half and a year-on-year decrease of 45%; By August 2021, the sales volume of that month even dropped to the second lowest point at the end of the year, with only 51300 vehicles, down 33% from July.
So low is the base of the same period that many people predicted in the first half of this year that August will usher in the first month of year-on-year growth in the industry. It is regrettable that even though the sales volume in August last year was so poor, the sales volume in August 2022 still showed a year-on-year decline, which shows the "risk" of the market and the "poor" of terminal demand.
After August, a total of 470000 heavy trucks were sold in the heavy truck market from January to August this year, down 60% from 1.174 million in the same period of the previous year, a decrease of 700000.
The recovery of wholesale sales is not ideal, and the actual sales is also very general. From the data of Shanghai insurance, from January to July this year, the actual sales of January, February, April to June did not exceed 50000, except that the sales volume in March exceeded 50000. By July, the actual sales of heavy trucks in the market was less than 40000, with a month on month decrease of 24%, and domestic terminal demand and orders could hardly see a significant improvement.
Can the annual market sales exceed 750000 vehicles?
As for the reason why the market demand is sluggish and the recovery of heavy truck sales is not as expected, in fact, it is the problem of economic slowdown in the final analysis. There is no need to elaborate on how unsatisfactory the recent macroeconomic trend is. Even Ren Zhengfei of Huawei said that he would "take survival as the most important program, shrink and close all edge businesses, and pass the cold air to everyone".
Let's take a look at several groups of newly updated economic data, which can be regarded as the leading indicator data reflecting the scene of heavy truck market:
First, look at PMI. In July, PMI Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index fell back below the 50% boom / bust line; The just disclosed PMI index of manufacturing industry in August was 49.4%, still below the boom / bust line. The second is fixed asset investment. The year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in July was only 3.75%, down 27.10% month on month, which was lower than that in June and even lower than that in May. Looking at the total amount of credit, the new credit amount in July was only 408.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.28% and a month on month decrease of 81.61%. It can also be seen that large and small economic entities are very pessimistic about the expectation of increasing loans to expand reproduction, and the economy as a whole is in a state of contraction. Finally, looking at the total retail consumption of consumer goods, the year-on-year growth rate in July was 2.70%, but the month on month decline was 7.41%, which was lower than that in June.
Generally speaking, due to the frequent domestic epidemics and the strict epidemic control policies in various forms such as silent management and static management, consumption, especially contact and aggregate consumption, and various investment projects have been greatly affected. The economy is slowing down, consumption and investment are sluggish, the supply of goods is decreasing, and the logistics industry is stagnant. Many logistics enterprises and logistics people have no goods to pull, and even the overdue rate of car loans is increasing; In addition, the long-standing situation of overdraft in advance of last year's demand, more cars and less goods, and low freight rates have led to a significant reduction in the number of people buying cars. In addition, the oil price is high, the daily operating costs of card friends, car owners and logistics companies are high, and the fuel consumption cost is heavy. At the same time, the inventory pressure of the heavy truck industry is still large, which occupies a large amount of funds and energy of manufacturers, suppliers and dealers, and also has a great impact on sales.
The performance of the heavy truck industry in August was not ideal. From the current situation, it is hard to imagine that the terminal market demand suddenly recovered rapidly in September, which then promoted the sales volume to jump to 70000-80000 units from September to October - this imagination and expectation lack economic basis and policy basis. To be honest, it's too difficult!
In other words, the commercial vehicle market in September and October, especially the heavy truck market, should not have too high expectations. Whether the annual heavy truck market can exceed 750000 is unknown. What is the level of 750000 vehicles? The sales volume decreased by 640000 units compared with the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year decrease of 46%.
The opportunity of market recovery and the expectation that the sales volume of the heavy truck industry will return to the scale of one million vehicles will at least wait until 2023. However, perhaps the only gratifying thing is that, in any case, next year will be a year of moderate market recovery.
