Recently, under the domestic extreme weather and the disturbance of the international market, the "coal super crazy" market staged again.
According to the data of Oriental Fortune choice, on August 29, the coal industry index opened low and went high. By the end of the day, the industry index had risen by more than 2%. Since the low point on August 5, it has rebounded by 19.90%, reaching the high of 12389.26. The share price of Yankuang energy has also reached a new record high.
Benefiting from the strong demand of coal market and the continuous high operation of coal prices, the performance of coal listed companies is still hot. According to the data of ifnd, as of the evening of August 29, 30 of the 38 listed companies in the coal industry (Shenwan industry) have disclosed the semi annual report of 2022. According to the disclosed data, more than 90% of the listed coal companies achieved year-on-year growth in revenue, with the largest increase being Panjiang shares, with a year-on-year growth of 72.93%.
Of the above 30 listed companies, 90% achieved profits. Among them, nearly 80% of the enterprises realized a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company, and the largest increase was Shanmei international, with a year-on-year increase of 318.36%.
An unnamed securities analyst told the Securities Daily that on the whole, the coal market was still in a tight supply in the second half of the year. Especially when the supply of international coal market is relatively tight, China's import of coal is not optimistic.
The net profit of three coal enterprises exceeded 10 billion yuan
As of the evening of August 29, in the first half of 2022, there were three listed coal enterprises with net profits of more than 10 billion yuan, namely, China Shenhua, Yankuang energy and China coal energy. In the first half of 2021, only China Shenhua's net profit returned to the parent company reached more than 10 billion yuan.
The largest increase in the net profit attributable to the parent of the above three companies is Yankuang energy, with a year-on-year increase of 198.54%, reaching 18.037 billion yuan, and its revenue growth is also obvious. In the first half of the year, the operating income reached 100.285 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.39%.
Why did Yankuang energy make so much money in the first half of the year? Yankuang Energy said in its semi annual report that in the first half of 2022, the high-quality coal production capacity will be released rapidly and the industrial supply guarantee capacity will be steadily improved. In addition, due to the complicated international energy supply and demand situation and the enhanced security and environmental protection constraints, the supply and demand of coal are in a tight balance, and the price remains at a medium high level.
Yankuang energy is currently the only listed coal enterprise in China with overseas large-scale coal mine assets. Its coal products are mainly sold to East China, North China, central China, South China, Northwest China, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and other countries. Under the situation that the domestic and foreign coal markets "fly together in quantity and price", Yankuang energy achieved explosive growth in the first half of the year.
China coal energy also benefited from the coal business of "both quantity and price".
In the first half of 2022, China coal energy will spare no effort to increase production and sales and implement the requirements of ensuring energy supply and price stability. The output of commercial coal will be 59.23 million tons, an increase of 2.47 million tons year-on-year, and the sales volume of self-produced commercial coal will be 58.65 million tons, an increase of 2.62 million tons year-on-year. The semi annual report shows that in the first half of the year, China Coal Energy achieved a revenue of 118.039 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.377 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75.7%.
As the "No. 1 coal brother", China Shenhua's performance in the first half of the year remained stable. According to its semi annual report, in the first half of 2022, China Shenhua realized an operating income of 165.579 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 41.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.1%.
Coal is still "hot" in the second half of the year
Market analysts believe that the coal market is catalysed by three factors: first, the expected landing of the Russian coal market after the official shutdown of the European Union will keep the overseas coal price high in the future, and the widening price difference will lead to the decline of China's imported coal; Second, the status of thermal power under extreme climate has been emphasized; Third, in the long term, coal demand will continue to rise, while coal output in July will decline month on month, and coal supply and demand will continue to be in tight balance.
As for the future trend, Qi hailing, President of Beijing Teyi sunshine new energy, said in an interview with the Securities Daily, "with the support of the national policy of ensuring supply and price stability, the coal market should be in a stable state in the second half of the year. In order to prevent the market from rising and falling, the coal price will remain high."
Many securities companies and institutions are optimistic about the coal market.
Xinda Securities believes that, driven by the high temperature weather and vigorous daily consumption, the coal demand continues to maintain a high level, and the expected improvement of the coal demand for steel, chemical industry and building materials in the downstream is expected to promote the recovery of coal prices. In the long run, since the rapid rise of coal prices in the third quarter of last year, coal prices have continued to rise in the past year. Driven by the "off-season" market in 2022, the central price has continued to rise.
Capital Securities believes that due to the impact of international geographical conflicts, coal has become a hot commodity and the relationship between supply and demand has changed. According to its estimation, the global coal supply and demand gap will reach 103 million tons from 2022, 185 million tons and 189 million tons in 2023 and 2024 respectively, and Europe will become the main coal shortage region. In addition, in the case of high international oil and gas prices, although the coal price is high, the price advantage is still obvious, and the substitution effect will become more significant.
In the face of the international energy crisis, countries have started the coal grabbing mode, and the amount of coal imported by China may be further reduced.
Data show that in the first half of 2022, China imported 115 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. In June, China imported 18.98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33%. In the first half of 2022, the coal import volume hit a new low in the same period of nearly seven years.
"The tight supply in the international coal market will lead to the weakening of the supplementary effect of domestic imported coal." Yang Jie, a researcher of Yimei Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that in the second half of the year, against the background of the global energy crisis, the domestic coal supply may be tight. What China needs to do is to vigorously develop clean energy, and at the same time, to ensure energy security through local rich coal resources.
China Shenhua also said in the semi annual report that from the perspective of the coal industry, the growth rate of coal consumption in the second half of the year will continue to recover, and the growth rate may be higher than that in the first half of the year. With the recovery of the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the second half of the year, the demand for electric coal will increase slightly. The release of high-quality coal production capacity will continue to accelerate, and the coal import volume is expected to continue to show a year-on-year weakness. The medium - and long-term contract coverage of coal will be further improved, and the supply and demand of China's coal market will maintain an overall balance, and the price will operate within a reasonable range.
