In August 2022, nearly two years have passed since China proposed the "3060" goal. In the past two years, China has demonstrated its strong power of action. The central government has set up a leading group for carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, which emphasizes on closely following the objectives and tasks and strengthening top-level design; 31 provinces will write the work of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization into the local "14th five year plan"; Steel, building materials, nonferrous metals, chemical and other industries actively responded to the call and formulated energy-saving and carbon reduction path plans.
As the largest developing country in the world, China needs to achieve the highest reduction in carbon emission intensity in the world and achieve carbon neutrality in the shortest time in global history. This means that China will undergo a broad and profound economic and social transformation.
Zhang Jianhua, director of the national energy administration, said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on July 27 that under the situation of tight global energy supply last year and the restart of coal-fired power in many European countries, China's non fossil energy development remained unchanged, and its proportion in the total energy consumption increased from 15.9% to 16.6%, maintaining the annual average growth rate since the 18th National Congress.
"We have the ability and confidence to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030." Zhang Jianhua said.
From the "supply side" to the "demand side", and from the transformation of energy structure to the upgrading of industrial structure, this arduous "transformation" has begun. As the largest contributor to carbon emissions, the low-carbon road in the industrial field has become one of the most noticeable focuses.
The difficulty of low-carbon industry: large volume and heavy tasks
On March 15, 2021, the ninth meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission pointed out that it is necessary to integrate carbon peaking and carbon neutralization into the overall layout of the construction of ecological civilization, show the strength of grasping the iron and achieve the goals of carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutralization by 2060 as scheduled.
Specifically, in terms of energy supply, we should build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, strive to improve the utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen the reform of the power system, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body. In terms of energy consumption, it is necessary to implement the action of reducing pollution and carbon in key industries, promote green manufacturing in the industrial field, improve energy-saving standards in the construction field, and accelerate the formation of green and low-carbon transportation modes in the transportation field.
In the first year of the 14th five year plan, this top-level meeting focused on the double carbon goals for the first time, putting the implementation of pollution and carbon reduction actions in key industries and fields in the order next to the construction of the energy system.
In October 2021, the State Council issued the carbon peak action plan before 2030, which listed the carbon peak action in the industrial field as one of the "ten carbon peak actions".
"Industry is one of the main fields that generate carbon emissions and has an important impact on the overall realization of carbon peak in the country. The industrial sector should accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation and high-quality development, and strive to take the lead in achieving carbon peak." The above action plan also proposes six specific tasks, including promoting green and low-carbon development in the industrial field and accelerating green and low-carbon transformation of traditional industries.
According to the report released by China Electronic Information Industry Development Research Institute, industry accounts for about 70% of the carbon emissions of the whole society. At present, China's industrial structure is biased and its energy structure is biased toward coal. The energy consumption of the four high energy carrying industries of chemical industry, building materials, steel and nonferrous metals has always accounted for about 30% of the total society. Although the proportion of coal consumption shows a downward trend, falling below 60% in 2018, it is still the main energy source in China in the short term.
Under the "double carbon" goal, the industrial sector still faces practical problems such as the urgent need to adjust the industrial and energy structure. On the one hand, it is the hard truth that only development can solve problems, and on the other hand, it is the helplessness that the ecological environment restricts the industrial scale. On balance, only by actively promoting green and low-carbon industrial development can we achieve the dual goals of economic aggregate, carbon peaking and carbon neutralization at the same time.
In the future, in addition to bearing the pressure of domestic low-carbon development, the industrial sector will also be impacted by international "carbon".
In July 2021, the European Union members announced the launch of the world's first "carbon border tax" (CBAM) program, the first batch of carbon tariffs on imported goods including steel, cement, fertilizer and aluminum. As part of the plan to achieve the new climate goals, the plan is expected to be implemented in phases from 2026.
Eleven months later, the European Parliament voted to adopt the revised text of the "carbon border tax" bill, and postponed the starting date from 2026 to 2027, expanding the collection scope and including indirect emissions, which once again demonstrated Europe's firm attitude towards implementing the "carbon border tax" and its determination to strengthen its implementation.
Many institutions have predicted that green technical barriers to trade will become an important means for some countries to seek competitive advantages, including green production requirements and management standards such as carbon footprint, which will have an impact on the export of China's electromechanical and textile products. In this regard, China should accelerate the construction of green factories, green parks, green supply chains, and green product entry and exit mechanisms, continue to cultivate and expand the team of green manufacturing suppliers, and provide green transformation services for industrial enterprises.
It can be seen that energy saving and carbon reduction are the only way to achieve the domestic double carbon goal, comply with the requirements of industrial upgrading, or connect with the international market and open up overseas markets.
Green breaking technology is preferred
In July 2021, the online trading of China's carbon market was officially launched, including more than 2000 key emission units in the power generation industry, covering about 4.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions, becoming the largest carbon market in the world covering greenhouse gas emissions.
So far, China's carbon market has handed over a gratifying "annual examination" answer.
As of July this year, the national carbon market has achieved a quota trading volume of 194 million tons, with a cumulative turnover of 8.49 billion yuan. The market quota compliance rate has reached more than 99.5%. More than half of the enterprises have participated in the transaction. The carbon quota trading price in the past two months has been between 55 yuan and 60 yuan.
In the long run, this carbon trading price is far from reaching the top, and there is still a large room for improvement.
Zhang Xiliang, head of the technical expert group for the overall design of the national carbon emission trading system and director of the Institute of energy and environmental economics of Tsinghua University, said publicly a few days ago that according to his team's calculation, the carbon price is expected to be about 68 yuan / ton of carbon dioxide during the "14th Five Year Plan period," 104 yuan / ton of carbon dioxide during the "15th Five Year Plan period," and 178 yuan / ton of carbon dioxide during the "16th Five Year Plan period".
It is worth noting that during the "14th five year plan" period, in addition to the power industry, other industries will also be included in the national carbon emission trading market. It includes eight high energy consuming industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemical, chemical, building materials, paper, power and aviation.
As the externality of "carbon" is gradually internalized, enterprises have to face the micro impact of carbon neutralization: after entering the carbon market, when enterprises run out of carbon quotas, they must pay real money to purchase carbon emission rights. On the other hand, if enterprises reduce their carbon emissions through various means, the carbon quota that can not be used up can also be traded in the carbon market for profit.
Low carbon development is on the way. How can we break the situation?
Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the development research center of the State Council, believes that the key to carbon peaking and carbon neutralization is to replace traditional technologies with green technologies and promote the high-quality and green development of traditional high-carbon industries. The research results of Schneider Electric Business Value Research Institute also show that 85% of enterprises believe that technology is the primary internal factor for enterprises to achieve carbon neutrality, and about 70% of enterprises believe that R & D and talents are the second important factor.
Technology has been raised to an unprecedented important level. The national development and Reform Commission and other five departments jointly issued several opinions on promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas by strictly restricting energy efficiency, which proposed to deeply tap the potential of energy conservation and carbon reduction technology transformation, strengthen the system concept, promote comprehensive measures, strictly supervise and manage, accelerate the pace of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas, drive the green and low-carbon transformation of the whole industry, and ensure that the carbon peak goal is achieved on schedule.
This means that as a systematic project, carbon reduction will not only compare with the industry benchmark level, but also depend on the coordination and deep linkage of fiscal, financial, investment, price and other policies with industrial and environmental protection policies.
As a close partner of Chinese industrial enterprises, ExxonMobil is well aware that the completion of any major industrial transformation requires the in-depth communication and cooperation of the whole industry. On August 31, the "2022 Mobil win summit" held by ExxonMobil will be grandly launched. The theme of the summit will be "green empowerment, building a low-carbon future together". It aims to create an exchange platform for enterprise ecological partners, share innovation and transformation experience, pool the strength of various parties, actively respond to the call for "double carbon" action, and jointly empower Chinese enterprises to achieve green transformation.
The achievement of the "double carbon" goal cannot be separated from the joint efforts of all social forces. It needs the strong support of green and low-carbon technologies and industries to guide enterprises to take this sustainable high-quality development highway.
