On September 7, the data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that China's total import and export value in the first eight months of this year was 4.191 trillion US dollars, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 2.375 trillion US dollars, an increase of 13.5% year-on-year; Imports were US $1815 trillion, up 4.6% year-on-year; The trade surplus was 560.52 billion US dollars.
Specifically, in August, China's total import and export value in US dollars was 550.45 billion US dollars, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 314.92 billion US dollars, up 7.1% year-on-year; Imports totaled 235.53 billion US dollars, up 0.3% year-on-year; The trade surplus was 79.39 billion US dollars.
Calculated in RMB, the total import and export value in August was 3.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 2.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; Imports were 1.588 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year; The trade surplus was 535.91 billion yuan.
Why did the export growth rate decline in August
In August, China's exports reached US $314.92 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9 percentage points lower than that in July to 7.1%.
Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, told surging news that JPMorgan Chase's continued decline in new orders of global manufacturing PMI under the boom and bust line was the leading factor for the sharp decline in export growth in August. In August, JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI recorded 50.3, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. At the same time, JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI new orders recorded 48.2, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous value, which was below the boom and bust line for two consecutive months, indicating that global demand has entered a contraction state.
Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Oriental Jincheng, also told surging news that overseas demand for China's export commodities may cool down against the background of the global economic slowdown. Compared with the previous period, the pull effect of high inflation in developed economies such as Europe and the United States on China's export volume in August was weakened. In fact, this phenomenon was already reflected in July.
In terms of the base factor, Zheng Houcheng said that in the same period of 2021, the base increased by 6.23 percentage points, which was also bad for the export amount in August compared with the same month.
Wang Qing also said that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in July 2021 was 19.2%, and rose to 25.4% in August. The increase in the base of export growth in August last year will certainly inhibit the year-on-year growth of exports in August this year. At the same time, the effect of concentrated shipment in the early stage basically subsided in August. High frequency data show that the year-on-year growth rate of foreign trade container throughput of the eight major ports weakened to - 0.1% in August, compared with a year-on-year growth of 14.7% in July. The foreign trade cargo throughput of coastal ports also decreased from a year-on-year growth of 7% in July to a year-on-year decrease of 1%.
Wang Qing said that the export growth rate declined in August, but it still showed strong resilience. The recent domestic epidemic fluctuation has limited impact on the manufacturing capacity, logistics and transportation. Under the influence of many factors, overseas countries still have strong dependence on "made in China". At the same time, since April, the RMB has depreciated against the US dollar (the maximum depreciation is close to 10%), which will promote exports in August. Finally, the recent domestic policy of stabilizing foreign trade continues to exert force, which will also form a certain supporting effect on exports.
Year on year decline in import growth
In August, China imported 235.53 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.3% down from 2.3% in July.
Wang Qing said that the low import growth rate in August was related to the increase of the base in the same period of last year, and the recent general downward trend of international bulk commodity prices will also have a certain pull-down effect on the import growth rate. At the same time, against the background of the decline in real estate investment, the current domestic demand for upstream raw materials is weak as a whole, which is a fundamental factor for the sustained low import growth rate in the near future.
Wang Qing also said that it is expected that the domestic economy will maintain the recovery momentum in the future, but the possibility of significant expansion of import demand is small. In addition, the international bulk commodity prices still have a downward trend, and the import growth rate will generally maintain a low fluctuation trend for a period of time in the future.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, told surging news that the import growth slowed down again in August, mainly because China's demand was in the recovery stage and weak as a whole; International bulk commodity prices are running at a high level, and the price effect weakens import demand; At the same time, last year's high import base was affected.
"Imports are gradually improving, but the growth rate is expected to remain low. This is mainly due to the continued policy combination of expanding domestic demand. The steady recovery of domestic consumption and investment demand helps to improve import demand. However, the prices of energy and some raw materials continue to operate at a high level. Influenced by the high base last year, foreign trade imports are still at a low level." Zhou Maohua said that at present, foreign trade continues to show a pattern of strong exports and weak imports, and the trade surplus remains high.
How will foreign trade go in the future?
Looking forward to September, Zheng Houcheng said that at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had a strong "hawkish" color. It is expected that the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. In addition, the CPI of the euro area in August recorded 9.10% year-on-year, a new high since records began in January 1997. It is expected that the European Central Bank will probably raise interest rates by a large margin. Under this background, It is expected that the global manufacturing PMI probability of JPMorgan Chase in September will continue to be under pressure and fall below the boom and bust line, which is negative for the CRB index in September on a year-on-year basis in that month. From the perspective of quantity and price, it is negative for the export amount in September on a year-on-year basis in that month.
Zheng Houcheng also said that in August and September of 2021, the export value recorded 25.41% and 27.93% respectively year-on-year in that month, and the small upward base was bad for the export growth in September. What is beneficial to the export growth in September is that the RMB exchange rate continued to depreciate from April to August. To sum up, under the pressure of the downward growth in quantity, price and base, it is expected that the year-on-year approximate rate of export value in September will be under pressure.
Wang Qing also said that with the increase of the export base in the same period last year, the further reflection of the impact of overseas economic downturn on China's exports, and the weakening of the pulling effect of the rising export commodity prices.
Wang Qing said that it is expected that the export growth rate in September may further drop to about 5.0%. Next, against the background of high base and weak foreign demand, the downward fluctuation of China's export growth will be the basic trend. This means that stable growth in the second half of the year will rely more on domestic demand. It is worth mentioning that the recent rapid downward trend of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar may have a certain driving effect on future exports, which is also an embodiment of the role of the flexible exchange rate as an automatic macroeconomic stabilizer. However, historical data show that the role of RMB depreciation in promoting exports need not be overestimated.
