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Lange steel comments: will construction machinery recover in the peak season?

Sep 08, 2022

According to the statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in August 2022, 26 excavator manufacturers sold 18076 excavators of various types, which was the same as the same period last year; Among them, there were 9096 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 26.3%; 8980 sets were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 56.7%. In August 2022, 22 loader manufacturing enterprises sold 8802 sets of various types of loaders, a year-on-year decrease of 2.69%; Among them, 4927 units were sold in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 26%; The export sales volume was 3875 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 62.4%.

Lange steel comments:

With the continuous support of funds from all sides, the spring tide of construction continued throughout the country in August, from southwest to northwest, from east to central China and then to North China. According to incomplete statistics, the planned investment in key projects in August maintained a high growth year-on-year and continued to recover month on month. Among them, infrastructure projects are still the key areas of intensive construction, which will bring continuous momentum to the construction machinery industry.

From the year-on-year data of excavator sales, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator sales in August was flat (see Figure 1 for details); Among them, the year-on-year decline of domestic sales increased by 1.4 percentage points; The year-on-year growth rate of exports narrowed by 16.1 percentage points. Judging from the month on month changes in domestic excavator sales, the influence of the traditional off-season of demand still exists. In August, domestic excavator sales continued to decline slightly, while foreign sales improved in a single month, including a 1.7% month on month decrease in domestic sales and a 3.3% month on month increase in exports.

According to the breakdown data of domestic excavator sales, the sales of small excavators in the domestic market in August was 5873, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month; The sales volume of Zhongdi mining was 1915 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 47.8%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points over the previous month; The sales volume of large excavation was 1308 units, down 32.6% year-on-year, 3.3 percentage points less than that of last month. Generally speaking, large excavators are used in mining and large-scale infrastructure projects, medium-sized excavators are used in real estate, infrastructure and other engineering projects, and small excavators are mainly used in rural construction, housing reconstruction, municipal and other projects. From the single month breakdown data, the recovery power of the municipal construction field represented by domestic small excavators was insufficient in August; While the infrastructure and real estate fields represented by medium and large excavators have improved slightly, the momentum for sustained recovery is still insufficient.

In the same period, the year-on-year decrease in the sales of loaders also narrowed, and the month on month increase was obvious. In August, the year-on-year decrease in the sales of various types of loaders by 22 loaders manufacturing enterprises was 4.2 percentage points smaller than that of the previous month (see Figure 2 for details); Among them, the sales volume in the domestic market decreased by 8.1 percentage points; Export sales still maintained a strong growth trend year-on-year. From the month on month change of domestic loader sales in a single month, the domestic loader sales in August increased by 2.6%, indicating that the domestic construction machinery industry has begun to recover.

Since 2022, 2700 docking projects have been started around the world, with a total investment of 4.6 trillion yuan; Among them, 730 social capital projects were introduced, and 367 billion yuan of capital was introduced; 860 financial institution fund projects were introduced, and 770 billion yuan of credit funds were introduced. On August 31, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that it is necessary to implement the arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, keep the economic operation within a reasonable range, strive for the best results, and, in view of the impact of economic factors beyond expectations, exhaust the policy tools that have been used for nearly two years in the early stage, and launch a package of policies and follow-up policies to stabilize the economy in a timely and decisive manner. At the same time, the State Council has also sent working groups to major economic provinces to focus on the supervision and service of stabilizing the overall economy. It is necessary to further promote the effectiveness of the package of policies for stabilizing the economy through the reform method of "releasing control and serving". It is necessary to follow up the policy details in early September, focus on expanding effective demand, and consolidate the foundation of economic recovery. This year's advance of 3.4 trillion yuan of special bonds will be accelerated. At the same time, 800 billion yuan of credit "quick assistance", 300 billion yuan of project funds "replenishment", 300 billion yuan of Railway Bonds "issuance", 300 billion yuan of policy oriented development finance "quota" and more than 500 billion yuan of special bond balance "limit" will be added. Therefore, with the continuous support of all kinds of funds with a total amount of more than 5.6 trillion yuan, the growth rate of "golden nine" infrastructure investment may exceed 10%.

At present, although the manufacturing cost pressure of the construction machinery industry has been significantly alleviated, due to the obvious lag in the recovery of the end market demand, the pressure of insufficient effective orders still exists, and the business pressure of enterprises is still large, which also restricts the release of the demand for steel for manufacturing in the construction machinery industry. The demand increase of related plates is still less than expected, but with the continuous support of 5.6 trillion yuan of funds from all walks of life, Major infrastructure construction projects are accelerating the effective commencement and construction progress, thus driving the market demand for construction machinery to recover in the peak season.