In August, the sales volume of the excavator industry was flat year-on-year, in line with market expectations
In August 2022, the sales volume of the excavator industry was 18076 units, which was the same as that of the previous year, consistent with the CME forecast and in line with market expectations. Among them, the domestic market sales volume was 9096 sets, down 26.3% year-on-year; The export sales volume was 8980 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 56.7%, accounting for 50% of the total sales volume. From January to August 2022, the cumulative sales volume of the excavator industry was 179109, a year-on-year decrease of 30.9%. Among them, 109470 units were sold in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 49.9%; The export sales volume was 69639 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 70.1%, accounting for 39% of the total sales volume. With the further decline of the industry base from the second half of the year to next year, it is expected that the industry growth rate will be flat year-on-year, and internationalization is expected to become a bright spot in the follow-up.
The proportion of small excavation structure continues to increase, and medium and large excavation has room for development
In terms of domestic sales structure, in August, the domestic sales of small excavation (< 18.5t) / medium excavation (18.5-28.5t) / large excavation (> 28.5t) were 5873 / 1915 / 1308 sets, respectively - 12.8% / - 47.8% / - 32.6% year-on-year, accounting for 64.6% / 21.1% / 14.4% of the total sales, and + 10.1 / - 8.6 / - 1.3pct year-on-year. The proportion of small excavation in total sales continues to increase, mainly based on the gradual highlighting of the nature of small excavation machines to replace people, and the expansion of application scenarios from traditional infrastructure to municipal and rural areas. The recovery of medium and large-scale excavation is relatively slow. The application scenarios of medium and large-scale excavation are real estate and infrastructure projects, and large-scale excavation is large-scale infrastructure and mining. Looking forward to the future, infrastructure projects under the stable growth policy will start one after another, mine supply under the energy security guarantee is expected to increase, and the demand for medium and large excavation is expected to recover.
The issuance and use of special bonds accelerated, and the industry is expected to recover in the second half of the year
Under the background of stable growth, the issuance pace of special bonds in 2022 is obviously ahead of schedule. The cumulative issuance of special bonds from January to July reached 347 million yuan, and the amount used for project construction has basically been issued. From January to July 2022, China's fixed asset investment in infrastructure increased by 9.6% year-on-year, and the role of special debt in driving infrastructure investment was obvious. Contrary to the investment amount, affected by the epidemic and extreme weather, the operation rate of downstream projects and equipment startup hours in the first half of the year were lower than those in the same period of previous years. In the second half of the year, the delayed projects will be implemented, the investment will form a physical workload, and the demand for commencement on the construction site is expected to be released in a centralized manner, driving the demand for equipment to recover; With the rapid growth of exports and the decline of the base in the same period, we judge that the industry is expected to recover in the second half of the year.
Internationalization and Electrification: greatly flatten the cycle and reshape the global industry pattern
The cyclical fluctuation of the overseas construction machinery market is far lower than that of the industry. In the background of the weakened impact of the epidemic since 2021, the growth rate of the industry has changed from negative to positive, and there is an opportunity to rebound beyond compensation. In the first half of 2022, the revenue growth of overseas construction machinery leaders caterpillar and Komatsu group was 12% and 17% respectively. The quality of leading domestic construction machinery products has been in the first echelon in the world, and has a significant cost-effectiveness. The export growth is far higher than that of overseas markets, which is expected to substantially flatten the industry cycle this week. Construction machinery products pay more attention to economy than passenger cars. As the manufacturing cost of electrified products decreases, the penetration rate is expected to accelerate. At present, the price of electric products of construction machinery is about twice that of traditional products, and the cost advantage of the whole life cycle is obvious. The cost of electric products is expected to continue to decline in the future. As the cost curve of electric products decreases and the penetration rate increases, domestic leading enterprises that invest heavily in electric technology are expected to occupy the share of small and medium-sized brands and usher in overtaking opportunities in the global market.
