The surging lithium battery industry has attracted a number of new heavyweight players.
Recently, Sany lithium energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sany lithium energy") invested by SANY group, a construction machinery giant, was officially established. The registered capital of the company is 100 million yuan, and its business will include battery manufacturing, sales, leasing, energy storage, etc. not long ago, Jiangsu Hongdou Industrial Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hongdou shares", 600400. SH), an old clothing enterprise, Its holding subsidiary HongRi wind energy plans to build a 3gw high-power solid-state lithium battery intelligent manufacturing project in Inner Mongolia, with a total investment of about 1.5 billion yuan.
Not only Sany group and Hongdou Group, but also Fuhua Tongda, a domestic pesticide head enterprise, announced that they would enter the lithium battery circuit in August. Its advanced materials industrial park with an investment of about 22 billion yuan was recently started in Leshan, Sichuan. The project includes the construction of 600000 tons of lithium battery electrolyte and 100000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode material.
How much space does lithium battery leave for new players? In the view of many people in the industry, due to the continuous release of demand in the new energy vehicles and energy storage market, lithium battery is still an incremental rather than a stock market. However, some people in the industry pointed out that the "Matthew effect" of the lithium battery industry has appeared to a certain extent in the context of increasingly high requirements on the capacity and production efficiency of enterprises.
Sany group: Electric paving
At the beginning of August, Sany lithium energy was established in Changsha, Hunan, which means that Sany group, a global construction machinery manufacturing giant, formally entered the lithium battery industry.
According to the data of Tianyan, the newly established Sany lithium energy has 11 shareholders. Among them, Sany group directly holds 15% of its shares and holds another 34.9% of its shares through two subsidiaries, which is the largest shareholder of Sany lithium energy. Liang holds about 33.6% of the shares in the company and is the second largest shareholder of Sany lithium energy. Liang Zaizhong is the son of Liang Wengen, the main founder of Sany group. He is 38 years old and also serves as a director and senior vice president of Sany group. Yi Xiaogang, currently a director and senior vice president of Sany Heavy Industry (600031. SH) and a director of Sany group, is the legal representative of Sany lithium energy.
The beneficial owners of the company show that the ultimate beneficial shares of Liang Zaizhong are 33.649%, and the ultimate beneficial shares of Liang Wengen are 28.287%.
According to the website of Sany group, the main business of Sany group is the R & D, manufacturing, sales and service of construction machinery. It includes three listed subsidiaries of Sany Heavy Industry, Sany international and Sany Heavy energy. The main products are concrete machinery, excavation machinery, lifting machinery, road building machinery, piling machinery, wind power equipment and port machinery. Relevant data show that in 2021, the sales volume of Sany excavator exceeded 100000, including nearly 78000 domestic sales and more than 22000 overseas sales. Since 2011, Sany Heavy Industry excavator has ranked first in the sales volume of the country for 10 consecutive years and ranked first in the world in 2020.
At the end of last month, among the annual "50 smart companies" (tr50) published by MIT Technology Review, Sany Heavy Industry, as the only enterprise in the construction machinery industry, attracted attention. It is understood that since last year, Sany group has started to concentrate on electrification. Among them, Sany Heavy Industry has laid out the layout of electric cells, electric drive bridge technology, charging and replacement power station, fuel cell system and control technology, and intensively launched 20 electric products, including the world's first 38 ton mass-produced electric large excavator and the first sy215 electric medium excavator.
On May 20, 2022, Sany Group officially released the power station replacement products. The first batch of power stations were officially put into operation in Chengdu, Sichuan, Zibo, Shandong and Ezhou, Hubei. It takes only 1.9 minutes to replace a single vehicle. The relevant person in charge of Sany power station R & D team said that the team is committed to creating a one-stop energy supplement solution integrating station, vehicle, battery and power exchange operation. More power exchange products will be released in the second half of the year.
However, behind these brilliant achievements, Sany group is still faced with the dilemma of substantial decline in the profits of its main industries.
According to the annual report of Sany Heavy Industry, in 2021, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of Sany Heavy Industry was 12.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.04%. It suffered the first decline in net profit in six years, and the net cash flow decreased by 11.29% year-on-year. According to the financial report forecast for the first half of 2022 released by the company, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first half of this year is expected to be 2.2 billion yuan to 3 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.1 billion yuan to 7.9 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year decrease of 70.22% - 78.16%.
In this regard, Sany Heavy Industry said that the domestic construction machinery industry is still in a downward adjustment period. Due to the impact of factors such as the slowdown of macroeconomic growth, the repetition of the COVID-19 epidemic and the insufficient effective commencement rate of the project, the market demand for construction machinery decreased in the first half of the year, resulting in a large drop in operating income.
Red bean shares: why is it too urgent to cross the border
In the view of many people in the industry, compared with Sany group, it seems somewhat hasty for Hongdou, a clothing enterprise, to enter lithium battery.
In July, Hongdou Co., Ltd. announced that its holding subsidiary Wuxi HongRi Wind Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "HongRi wind energy") intends to sign an agreement with Chengdu super one power new energy technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chengdu super one power") and the government of Jining District, Wulanchabu City, Inner Mongolia to invest in the establishment of a project company and build a 3gw high-power solid-state lithium battery manufacturing project in baihaizi District, Jining district. According to the framework agreement, the total investment of the project is about 1.5 billion yuan, which is divided into two phases, of which the first phase is 800 million yuan and the second phase is 700 million yuan. The proposed registered capital of the project company is 300 million yuan, of which HongRi wind energy subscribed 270 million yuan, with a shareholding ratio of 90%, and Chengdu Chaoyi power subscribed 30 million yuan, with a shareholding ratio of 10%. The project is planned to start construction in August 2022 and put into production in 2023; The phase II project will be completed in 2024. Hongdou said that after the completion of the lithium battery project, it is expected to achieve an annual sales revenue of 4.5 billion yuan.
On the day after the announcement of Hongdou shares, the Shanghai stock exchange sent an inquiry letter to it, questioning the investment.
The issues that Shanghai stock exchange requires Hongdou to explain include: the reasons and main considerations for the company to develop new business under the condition of insufficient funds, talents and business reserves; Source of technical reserve for project construction, production and manufacturing of the company; The company's current reserve of technical personnel and the working experience of relevant personnel.
In addition, the Shanghai Stock Exchange also required red bean to explain the basis and rationality of the forecast of the revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, list the specific time plan for the construction of relevant projects, and supplement the disclosure of the financial data of super one power.
In its reply to the Shanghai stock exchange one week later, Hongdou said frankly that HongRi wind energy, the holding subsidiary of the company, currently does not have the R & D and technical personnel related to solid-state lithium batteries. The main technologies and patents of this investment project come from the company controlled by Chen Xingbao, the chairman and general manager of the partner super one power, or the company in which it participates.
Moreover, HongRi wind energy has not negotiated and signed a clear agreement with the above parties on the use of future technologies or patents.
According to tianyancha app data, HongRi wind energy was established on May 6, 2022, and its business scope is generator and generator unit manufacturing; Sales of onshore wind turbines, etc. Chengdu super one power was founded in February 2022. The company currently has 14 patents related to lithium battery technology, of which 7 patents are valid.
In the latest announcement on August 4, Hongdou further stated that the relevant patents to be used in the "3gw high-power solid-state lithium battery intelligent manufacturing project" are only at the experimental stage, and have not yet entered the commercial application stage. It is uncertain whether the final product can be successfully applied commercially. In addition, HongRi wind energy has been established for a short time, and there is no general contracting qualification for power engineering at present.
Why is it so urgent to cross the border? It can be seen that, similar to Sany group, Hongdou is also trapped in the dilemma of the sharp decline of its main business profits.
According to the annual report of Hongdou in 2021, its operating income was 2.342 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72%. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 76.9731 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.92%. The net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 68.208 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.87%. The first quarter report of the company in 2022 shows that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company decreased by 41.03% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non recurring profit and loss decreased by 48.98% year-on-year.
Soochow securities research report pointed out that the main business of textile and garment enterprises is suffering, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, which restricts the business growth. In order to quickly improve the "hematopoiesis" problem, it is necessary to develop new growth points other than the main business.
The reporter of pengpai news learned that in addition to Hongdou shares, clothing enterprises that announced to enter lithium battery in recent years also include Vosges shares, Jiangsu Sunshine, Xinlong holdings, kanglongda, Zhongyin cashmere industry, etc., and their fields include lithium ore, battery positive and negative electrode materials, battery electrolyte and other projects.
Lithium battery industry: Blue Ocean still?
How much room does the lithium battery industry leave for new entrants?
Take the power battery industry at the downstream of the industry as an example. On the one hand, the market demand is indeed growing. According to the data of the all China Federation of passengers, in July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 486000, an increase of 117.3% year-on-year. From January to July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles was 2.733 million, with a year-on-year increase of 121.5%.
On the other hand, the concentration of the industry is also increasing. According to the statistical data of China automobile power battery industry innovation alliance, in July, China's power battery loading volume was 24.2gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 114.2%. The top ten enterprises in terms of loading volume accounted for 95.95% of the market, and the top three Ningde times, BYD and China Innovation Airlines accounted for 78.49% of the market. The market share of the leading Ningde era is 47.19%, and the share of the 10th ranked Tafel new energy is only 0.84%.
In the view of he Weiyan, chief analyst of Ganfeng lithium, a domestic lithium industry giant, the lithium battery industry is still a blue ocean. "The Matthew effect has not yet appeared, because the industry is developing too fast and the pie is getting bigger and bigger. This is not a stock game, but an incremental market." In a recent internal exchange meeting of the lithium battery industry, he Weiyan said:.
Moreover, many technical routes in the industry have not been fully determined. "For example, the extraction of lithium from upstream and clay is a brand-new problem. The extraction of lithium from domestic salt lakes is also gradually developing. These are all new opportunities. For example, the final route of power batteries is still uncertain. There are many opportunities for solid-state batteries and sodium ion batteries in the future." He Weiyan said, "it's not that the current boss will always be the boss, and there will be many laggards in the industry in the future."
However, Wang An, general manager of the project development department of GuoXuan high tech, a power battery head enterprise, believes that whether there is a Matthew effect in the industry depends on the segments. "The numerator and denominator are rapidly expanding. From the perspective of the entire industrial chain, the more complex fields are, the harder it is to enter. For example, battery membranes, there are not many enterprises that can enter again. However, unlike mines, the profit rate of lithium mining is too high, so there will be many new enterprises."
As for power battery, after the accumulation in the early stage, the industry has been on the fast track, and has reached the stage of capacity scale, production efficiency and product quality stability. "Battery is a high-tech industry, and customers need stable supply and fast supply guarantee. For example, an automobile manufacturer needs 5gwh battery this year, but the car suddenly explodes, and the next year needs 10gwh. If the capacity of the battery supplier cannot keep up, the customer can only change to a second supplier."
"In this sense, this industry has already had the Matthew effect." In this internal exchange meeting, Wang An said:.
So, how can new entrants gain a foothold in the lithium battery industry? Insiders believe that the key still lies in technology and cost control.
"Professional things need professional people to do." He Weiyan said, "many years of construction experience and sedimentation of process design are the biggest thresholds in the upstream. This does not mean that capital is not important. It is easy to buy a mine when the financing environment of the whole industry is relatively loose, but what can we do if we do not have experience and technical reserves? We have seen some lithium mine projects in foreign countries, but they have not climbed up after five years of purchase."
An industry must have an upward period, and when the industry goes down, the enterprises with low cost will survive. According to he Weiyan, when the lithium price was low in 2019, many lithium mining enterprises "died before dawn." Wang An said frankly, "how to ensure the supply of raw materials, smooth profits and prevent risks, and how to expand production capacity while reducing costs. For lithium battery enterprises, this is a matter of life and death in the future."
