Up to now, the first quarter annual reports of Listed Companies in the construction machinery sector in 2022 have been released successively. Therefore, we have sorted out the performance statements of 15 major listed companies, including Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG machinery, Liugong, Shantui, Shanhe intelligent, Xiamen Construction machinery, Hengli hydraulic, AIDI precision, Changling hydraulic, Zhejiang Dingli, nori, Anhui Heli and Hangcha group, Based on this data, the comparison, analysis and summary are carried out to explore the future development trend and outlook of the industry.
In 2021, the revenue of 15 listed companies was 367.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 31.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.90%. Under the background of high base, the revenue side has maintained positive growth. The traditional construction machinery represented by excavators, cranes and concrete machinery has entered the downward adjustment stage of demand, while the downstream application penetration of typical emerging high-altitude work platforms has continued to increase, and the industry demand has maintained momentum. The profit side declined and profitability was under pressure. In 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin of statistical samples was 21.91%, a year-on-year -3.26%. On the one hand, the demand fell, market competition intensified, and product prices were under pressure. On the other hand, the prices of raw materials and freight increased significantly; The comprehensive net profit margin was 8.86%, with a year-on-year decrease of -1.95%. Compared with the gross profit margin, the decline was small, reflecting that the construction machinery enterprises have strong fine management ability and good cost control.
Summary of the first quarter: the high base superimposes the impact of the epidemic, and the overall performance is under pressure
According to the above statistics, in the first quarter of 2022, the revenue of 15 listed companies was 75.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.4%. On the one hand, the decline in performance is due to the high base factor. On the other hand, the repeated epidemic has affected the downstream commencement, supply chain and shipment to varying degrees, resulting in the delay of demand in the peak season in March. From the perspective of profitability, in the first quarter of 2022, the comprehensive gross and net profit margins of the enterprises counted by the construction machinery sector were 19.04% and 7.73% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -5.09% and -4.05% respectively, and a month on month ratio of -0.57% and +4.60% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2021. The significant improvement in the net profit margin in the first quarter was mainly due to the fact that the net profit margin in the first quarter of 2022 was generally affected by centralized rebate and bonus accrual. The profitability in the first quarter of 2022 remained basically stable under the pressure of higher cost side.
Outlook: "steady growth" effect is expected to appear after the second quarter
(1) From a short-term perspective: it is expected that the overall performance in 2022 will be "low in the front and high in the rear". Under the catalysis of the steady growth policy, the growth performance of the industry is expected to show a "V" recovery after the second quarter. With the catalyst of steady growth, infrastructure investment has recovered, and the issuance of special bonds has significantly improved. At present, there are plenty of downstream projects to be started. After the epidemic is controlled, it is expected to usher in the peak construction season, stimulating the recovery of equipment demand. In neutral expectation, the annual growth rate of the industry dropped by 10.00%, and the annual sales volume was 309000 units. Based on the calculation of the monthly sales volume of excavators in the past five years, considering that the previous first quarter accounted for more than 30.00%, the predicted sales volume should reach 97000 units, but only 77000 units actually. The epidemic suppressed demand. We expect that, under the background of the steady growth policy, after the peak construction season in the second quarter, the backlog demand is expected to be released, and the industry growth rate is expected to usher in a turning point in August, From negative to positive.
(2) From a medium - and long-term perspective: leading enterprises have stepped up their internationalization and electrification layout, and actively responded to the cyclical fluctuations of the single market. Internationalization: the international layout of domestic leaders is gradually entering the harvest period. ① manufacturing side: layout localized production bases to optimize costs; ② Product side: launch new models with different market adaptability; ③ Sales side: the number of overseas channels and service outlets has increased year by year. In 2021, the overseas revenues of Sany, XCMG and Zoomlion were 24.8 billion yuan, 12.9 billion yuan and 5.8 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 23.30%, 15.40% and 8.60% respectively. Compared with the global leader caterpillar, in 2021, the overseas market revenue of North America exceeded 180billion yuan, accounting for more than 55.00%. The overseas market of domestic brands has a large room for improvement, which has a positive contribution to ironing out the cyclical fluctuations of the domestic industry.
(3) In terms of electrification: at present, engineering vehicles, excavation machinery, loading machinery, hoisting machinery and other categories have all been offline. In the future, with the continuous maturity of electric drive, electric control, battery technology and the continuous expansion of application scenarios, the electric products are expected to accelerate the updating and replacement of existing models by virtue of the cost advantage in the whole life cycle. Domestic leaders are also expected to rely on the first mover advantage in the field of electrification and the supporting advantages in the industrial chain, Participate in the restructuring of the global construction machinery market.
