According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, a total of 37085 mining machinery products were sold in March this year, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased again; Compared with the sales volume of 72968 units in the same period of last year, it has directly cut back, which has changed the grand occasion of previous peak seasons. In terms of month on month, the sales volume of excavators in March increased by 51.5% month on month, and continued to improve.
Domestic market demand slows down
In addition to the impact of the high base factor in the same period of last year, the continuous rebound of this round of epidemic has led to the increasing downward pressure on China's economy, the shutdown of construction sites in many parts of the country and the downward demand for superimposed equipment renewal are also the reasons for the slowdown of downstream demand in the domestic excavator market in March.
Overall, the overall market demand of China's construction machinery is still stable. In March, the investment amount of major construction projects was about 140.279 billion yuan; The national development and Reform Commission held the first meeting of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan. It was required to ensure the effective implementation of 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan... Since this year, the national level has continuously strengthened the policy of "stable growth", and at the same time, all localities have also "appropriately advanced" the layout of major infrastructure projects. Although at present, the repeated impact of the epidemic in many places and the implementation effect of special debt funds are not as good as expected, which have delayed the progress of relevant projects. But at the same time, we should also see that the effect of the "steady growth" policy is only delayed. The overall advance of the rhythm of special bond issuance and the further acceleration of the subsequent issuance speed will help to form effective physical investment as soon as possible and promote the steady growth effect as soon as possible. According to incomplete statistics, as of March 31, 1.32 trillion yuan of new special bonds had been issued this year, and 89.7% of the quota of 1.47 trillion yuan had been issued in advance. Many good news will effectively support the boom recovery of downstream industries and stimulate the demand for construction machinery and equipment.
At the same time, the export sales volume of excavators in March continued a high growth trend, reaching 10529 units, with a year-on-year increase of 73.5%, becoming the first month to break 10000 in a year. Despite the impact of the epidemic on port cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, resulting in a certain degree of interference in logistics and transportation and a narrowing of export growth, the export market has still become an important growth point of the excavator industry.
Construction machinery enters a weak cycle
According to the stock market situation released by Dongfang fortune, the market value of Sany Heavy Industry was 145.5 billion on March 28, which has evaporated 281.3 billion yuan compared with the highest point of 426.8 billion yuan in 2021. Although the market value fell, Sany Heavy Industry is still one of the largest enterprises in the construction machinery industry, and Liang Wengen led Sany group to the front of the world. It is obviously unreasonable to dismiss due to the fluctuation of market value, but it is a foregone conclusion that the construction machinery industry has entered a weak cycle.
Why can the strong and weak cycle theory become a lookout for the trend of the construction machinery industry?
Firstly, cyclical industry refers to the industry whose prosperity is highly positively correlated with the external macroeconomic environment and presents a cyclical cycle. Cyclical industries are characterized by cyclical fluctuations in product prices, demand and production capacity. When the peak of industry prosperity comes, product demand rises and prices rise sharply. In order to meet the suddenly expanding demand, production capacity expands greatly, while it is just the opposite in the depression.
Most people in China believe that construction machinery is cyclical, and its main demand is reflected in infrastructure investment, real estate speculation and the renewal of construction machinery. Some people believe that the service life of general construction machinery is 8-12 years. The last change in excavator sales in China began in 2004, peaked in 2011, and then declined all the way. It fell to the bottom in 2015, which has experienced a cycle of nearly ten years.
After recovering in 2015, it has gone through a six-year rising period to 2020. It seems that the construction machinery industry has reached the peak of the industry in 2021. According to public data, from 2017 to 2020, the domestic construction machinery industry has developed cyclically, continuously and rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of more than 10%. In 2017, the revenue of the whole industry was 540.3 billion yuan, and in 2020, the revenue of the whole industry was 775.1 billion yuan. In 2021, the operating revenue of the whole industry exceeded 800 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 3%.
However, as of the first half of 2021, the data is in the state of growth, and the trend of the stock market has changed in the second half of 2021. Therefore, many people believe that the next stage is the decline stage of construction machinery, that is, the weak cycle described by the market.
As the market value of Sany Heavy industry continues to fall, the market believes that the weak cycle will come after all. Therefore, the characteristic of too strong periodicity of the industry is considered to be the fundamental reason why the secondary market is not optimistic about the track of the industry.
In fact, according to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 40090 excavators were sold from January to February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%; The number of domestic units decreased by 2536.37% year-on-year. 14760 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 101%. Data confirmed that the domestic market may be the support basis for the weak cycle, but the growth of export data may become a new turnaround.
The market labels construction machinery periodically, which has also become the biggest disadvantage in the industry that is not favored by the secondary market. Construction machinery enterprises such as Sany, Zoomlion and XCMG have to go through ups and downs in the industry. Moreover, in the construction machinery industry, competition is particularly important. Peers compete with each other for technical ability and product ability to highlight their strength, so as to gain the upper hand in sales, For the top five brands in the industry, they have their own stable channels. Perhaps it is more important to explore whether cyclical problems can be alleviated and solved.
Embrace the trend of unmanned, sneak and hibernate
With Robin Lee mentioning this keyword in the two sessions for many times, the popularity of unmanned has become higher and higher, and it has become a hot topic of the times. Today, with the wave of unmanned sweeping all walks of life, major manufacturers of construction machinery have made use of their technological advantages to open up new territories in the unmanned new market. This module seems to have become another blue ocean in the direction of industrial production transformation and seizing market opportunities.
At present, the application of unmanned in the construction machinery industry mainly focuses on the production and manufacturing of unmanned products and unmanned cluster construction.
1. Unmanned production and manufacturing
In order to meet the arrival of the era of unmanned, we must first arm ourselves, reduce costs and increase efficiency. Leading construction machinery enterprises have set an example in enabling intelligent manufacturing to a higher level with 5g technology. All unmanned production lines and unattended workshops have been put into pilot and use. While ensuring production flexibility, efficiency and qualification rate have been improved compared with manual work. Zoomlion smart industrial city unmanned "black light production line"; XCMG is the world's first unmanned intelligent crane workshop; Sany unmanned production line in "lighthouse factory"; Shandong Lingong's first domestic production line intelligent transport vehicle - driverless AGV car is the tip of the iceberg in the epitome of this trend.
2. Unmanned products
Although many enterprises have already set foot in the field of unmanned products, the rapid and explosive growth did not really appear until nearly two years. Especially in terms of construction cases and applications, it was pioneered in many industries and implemented one after another for the first time in China, demonstrating the proud strength of China's big country.
Zoomlion's unmanned products are involved in agricultural machinery, cranes, aerial work platforms, shoveling machinery, spreaders and other types of machinery, especially in agricultural machinery. As early as 2018, Zoomlion has built China's first unmanned harvester to help the country promote the construction of unmanned farms.
In terms of excavators and cranes, XCMG took the lead in stepping into 5g no man's land to realize remote online control.
Liugong has relevant products in driverless road rollers, excavators and loaders. On November 26, 2021, Liugong launched three "driverless construction machinery" in the industry, which won unprecedented attention from the industry and led the new trend of the driverless era.
Shandong Lingong's research on unmanned excavator is unique, which provides a practical way for the realization of unmanned construction site.
Shantui gives full play to its advantages of deep ploughing road machinery for many years, creates driverless bulldozers and rollers, and realizes an all-round pattern of integration of intelligent products, manufacturing and services with the innovative development mode of "Internet + Intelligent Manufacturing".
With the unique advantages of new energy products, boreton has launched driverless pure electric mineral card, driverless pure electric tractor and driverless pure electric loader to provide users with intelligent unmanned operation scheme.
3. Unmanned cluster construction
The unmanned construction of the fleet is mainly concentrated in the mine and pavement construction projects. The fundamental reason is that the working environment of the mine and pavement is relatively independent and closed, so it naturally becomes the first front for all parties to seize the unmanned highland.
So far, the unmanned development of mining machinery is relatively mature. Enterprises focusing on the construction of smart mines such as huituo intelligent have sprung up one after another. Mining areas using 5g + smart mine mode such as Pulang copper 5g intelligent mine have realized unmanned mining. In addition, Zoomlion's full set of intelligent mining equipment + zvalley OS Internet of things platform, Sany's open-pit unmanned mechanical equipment intelligent mine operation solution, XCMG's parallel intelligent mine system jointly developed by huituo intelligence, Liugong intelligent mine system 2.0 and boreton's green mine integration solution all have the application of humanized technology.
In terms of pavement machinery, Sany has successfully developed a set of unmanned construction machinery and equipment for Expressway Pavement Overlay and a group of spreaders. The construction accuracy has reached millimeter level, which has been successfully applied to practical construction and put into use in a large area in China.
XCMG's unmanned cluster paving and maintenance equipment carried out unmanned cluster intelligent maintenance on the operated expressway for the first time in September 2021, opening up a new era of unmanned road maintenance.
To sum up, the all-round development of unmanned cluster operation has become a general trend. As the "test field" of unmanned construction machinery, the promotion and improvement of mining and pavement technology is bound to drive the unmanned process of the whole industry, set off a new round of upsurge, and promote China's construction machinery and equipment to become a world-class level.
Is there any chance for mechanical equipment in weak cycle?
"After the baptism of the last cycle, the construction machinery industry has become more mature and more adaptable. There is a unified understanding in the whole industry that the total scale is relatively stable and there can be no drastic changes. Therefore, in expanding the market, the industry enterprises have done something or not, ensuring that there is no cliff like decline in the industry, and the overall level is still the highest in history." Analysis by LV Ying, Deputy Secretary General of China Construction Machinery Industry Association.
Favorable domestic and foreign conditions ease the downward weakness
"As a post cycle product of construction machinery, construction hoisting machinery will continue to have a peak period of equipment renewal in the next two years. It is expected to relay excavators and prolong the boom cycle of construction machinery." Yu Lekang said.
"Local infrastructure projects have been launched one after another. At the same time, there are" two new and one heavy ". The key projects represented by Sichuan Tibet railway have been started one after another, which can form a huge pulling effect on the concrete machinery industry. I think it is worth looking forward to the market development in 2022. There must be a relatively good growth rate in 2022 compared with 2021." Fu Zhongxuan said.
Compared with the last downward cycle, it is obvious that China's construction machinery market is more mature, the downstream market demand is stable, and the continuous promotion of overseas expansion will also smooth the cyclical fluctuations of the construction machinery market.
In December 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued 1.46 trillion yuan of new special debt in 2022 to all underground, about three months ahead of 2021. The special debt will focus on transportation infrastructure, guaranteed housing projects, urban renovation and transformation, municipal and industrial park infrastructure and other important projects. Senior officials of the central government and various ministries and commissions have repeatedly said that they should carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule, accelerate the promotion of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th five year plan, implement the special bonds issued by local governments in the fourth quarter of 2021 into specific projects as soon as possible in accordance with the requirements of "funds follow the projects", pay close attention to the issued amount, and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter.
In terms of overseas exports, the export amount of China's construction machinery has increased significantly in recent 10 years. From 2009 to 2019, the export amount increased from US $7.7 billion to US $24.3 billion, especially the overseas income of leading enterprises. In 2021, the export growth of construction machinery is nearly doubled, which is expected to reach US $34 billion, with a surplus of about US $30 billion.
Despite the complex external environment, in the medium and long term, the overseas market expansion of China's construction machinery will still maintain a certain growth rate, which is expected to further weaken the cyclical downward trend caused by the lack of domestic incremental market. Some institutions predict that the annual sales volume of China's excavators is expected to stabilize at about 300000 in the next three years, without a sharp decline.
As the number one project of China's railway construction, the construction of Sichuan Tibet railway has been started. Nearly 100 sets of Zoomlion concrete equipment have been constructed, container mixing plants have been installed and put into operation, and the tunnel specific concrete pump customized and developed for the construction environment of Sichuan Tibet tunnel has been successfully offline and will be delivered to customers soon; Orders for super tunnel equipment of China railway construction heavy industry are pouring in, with full power and efficient production; Liugong and Lingong pure electric loaders are experiencing the severe test of plateau extreme working conditions, expanding growth space for new energy engineering machinery.
With the commencement of domestic large-scale project construction, various complex and difficult working conditions have put forward greater tests and demands for large hoisting equipment, rotary drilling rig and full rotary full casing drilling rig with stronger construction capacity and larger drilling diameter. Zoomlion and XCMG construction machinery have a lifting torque of 10000 ton meter tower crane, and XCMG and Shanhe intelligent output torque of 1200kN Large rotary drilling rigs of more than m are about to come on stage to meet the challenge.
