Core recommendation: Hengli hydraulic, Sany, leading intelligent, Tiantong shares, Jack shares, Japan machine seal, Aiston, Hua test.
Core point of view: the mechanical plate subdivision industry and the high quality stock overall valuation level entered the reasonable range range, entered the semi annual performance forecast period in July, and suggested the key layout of three main lines: 1) Statistics Bureau statistics 1-5 months of industrial scale above the scale of manufacturing industry increase 7%, of which 3C equipment, special equipment, automobile manufacturing, universal equipment and instruments The growth of the instruments is 12.8%, 11%, 9.2%, 8.2%, 8.1%. We expect the high probability of the performance of the Chinese newspaper to focus on 3C equipment, engineering machinery and high-end parts; 2) continue to focus on the self-control of high-end equipment. The Sino US trade friction has a far-reaching impact on the reflection of the high-end equipment and core technology in the related industries. The main control is the first key, medium and long term layout of semiconductor equipment, industrial robot, 3C automation, lithium electric equipment and other high-end equipment independent control and domestic substitution; 3) from bottom to top selection subdivision industry, mainly focused on high-end parts (seals, dies) import substitution, custom furniture, textile clothing and other equipment subdivision industries stealth crown Army.
Overview of the main line of investment:
Mainline 1: SMIC 14m process has made a major breakthrough. In the next three years, domestic expansion will increase the opportunity for localization of equipment. According to TechNews reported by the technology media, SMIC 14m trial production has reached 95% yield, laying the foundation for mass production in 2019. SEMI's global semiconductor equipment market was 55 billion 900 million US dollars in 2017, up 35.6%. China's mainland semiconductor equipment was 7 billion 590 million US dollars, up 17.5%. The global semiconductor equipment was estimated to be 60 billion 100 million US dollars in 2018, up 7.5% from the same year, and the growth of China mainland was the fastest, up to 11 billion 300 million US dollars and the growth rate of 49.3%.
SMIC is the leader of China's wafer fab. Its expansion plan will take the lead in China's expansion in the next three years. After its breakthroughs in the advanced process, mass production is expected to accelerate, and domestic alternative demand will also rise at the same time. Domestic equipment is expected to enter substantive performance. It mainly recommends North China Chuang Chuang, pure technology, Tiantong shares, Chang Chuan technology, and Jing Sheng electric machinery.
Main line two: China's robot sales increased by 58% in 2017, and the industry boom lasted three main lines. The international robot Federation issued the 2018 World robot report. The global industrial robot sales reached 380 thousand in 2017, up 29% from the same period, and the Chinese market sold 138 thousand in 2017, up 58% from the same year, accounting for 1/3 of the world. The industrial robot industry is strong, and the layout follows three main lines: 1) the domestic high quality manufacturers grasp the core technology and extend to the downstream. It is the only way to train the technical strength and establish the market recognition. Recommend robots, Elton. 2) have the advantages of scale and capital, set up the predominance by high threshold, strengthen the upstream bargaining power with the scale effect, grasp the cost advantage, and establish the undertaking of large project with the strength of capital. It is recommended that tusta and Ke Lai mechatronics. 3) the technology breakthrough is expected to be replaced by the domestic giant, double ring transmission.
Main line three: the Matthew effect of the lithium power industry has been strengthened, and the leading company's firm expansion capacity has boosted the demand for high-end equipment in China. According to the high power lithium electricity statistics, the current announcement of the capacity of the power battery enterprises to expand production reached 65GWh, concentrated in the BYD, Ningde era, the national Xuan high science, Far East Forster and other leading enterprises and new Shanxi black horse Tafel. In addition, as the Tesla shareholders' meeting officially announced the gradual withdrawal of factories and government subsidies in China, the power of foreign battery enterprises in China is enhanced, which is expected to greatly boost domestic capacity, and equipment enterprises are expected to benefit from the harvest of new orders. Recommend leading intelligence, nu Li shares, Ke Heng shares, win win technology.
Mainline four: the excavator increased by 60% in the first half of the year, and recommended the localization of the leading parts and core components. Construction machinery industry association data show that in June, 14 thousand and 200 sales of excavators increased by 58.8% over the same period last year. The industry chain survey shows that the cost of the excavator is rising continuously and the rate of return on investment is better; the number of excavators in China is significantly higher than that of the developed countries, and the expected sales volume of 2018 excavators is expected to reach about 180 thousand. The industry leaders focused on cleaning up the historical burden, obviously restoring the balance sheet, and the profit elasticity was higher than the income growth rate. Sany, Liugong and Xugong machinery were mainly recommended. The localization of the domestic hydraulic pump valve is recommended by Hengli hydraulic and Addie precision.
