"The infrastructure investment gap is about $100 billion per year, and we can only cover 15% of it. The gap in essence is very large." Alexandre Meira Da Rosa, deputy governor of the Pan American Development Bank, said at the Ninth International Forum on infrastructure investment and construction.
This year is the "one way" initiative proposed 5th anniversary, "along the road" along the country's trade volume accounts for 22% of the global trade volume, accounting for 43.4% of the world's population, which means huge project investment and capital demand.
In an interview with the Chinese business newspaper reporters, the heads and experts of a number of multilateral financial institutions said they should attract social capital, mobilize institutional investors and diversify their financing structures in the face of the investment gap in the "one road area".
Funding gap
Behind the huge demand for infrastructure is enormous financial pressure.
"At present, most of the infrastructure investment along the line is the central government to invest, relying on the" two excellent "loan, silk road funds and other policy support, the loan interest rate is about 6%~8% lower than the market interest rate. But because of the high risk of investment along the road along the road, it is difficult for the private enterprises to get low interest loans, the enthusiasm of direct investment infrastructure is not high, and more projects are invested in project contracting. An expert close to the regulatory authorities told the China business newspaper reporter.
The global infrastructure outlook report, released by the global infrastructure center in 2017, predicts that the investment demand for global infrastructure projects will increase to $97 trillion by 2040. In addition, it is estimated that by 2040, the global infrastructure investment gap will exceed US $15 trillion, equivalent to 16% of the capital investment deficit. According to the current investment trend, there will be 19% or about $18 trillion in 97 trillion dollars.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the former president of the people's Bank of China and vice president of the Boao Forum on Asia, said at the Boao Asia Forum in 2018 that, according to the Asia Development Bank, the Asia Pacific region, between 2016 and 2020, was only about US $500 billion per year in infrastructure investment in the Asia Pacific region, except in China, but the public sector and the public sector The total amount of money the private sector can provide is only $200 billion per year, which is 300 billion US dollars, accounting for 5% of GDP in the region. According to this proportion, Zhou Xiaochuan believes that the infrastructure investment gap in the entire coverage area will exceed $600 billion a year.
From the source of capital investment of the "one way and one way", the central enterprises have more advantages, more easy to obtain policy loans and some international organizations' aid funds and low interest loans, and the interest rate may be only about 2%. If a private company is a listed company, it can use capital market financing, but if it is a non-listed company, it mainly relies on its own capital investment.
Li Zhongyuan, general manager of the China Import and export bank risk management department, recently said that by the end of the first quarter of 2018, China's import and Export Bank supported the "one road" construction loan balance of more than 830 billion yuan. Of the 28 loan agreements of the import and export bank, 23 items have come into force in the list of the results of the "one way" Summit Forum on international cooperation in 2017, of which 14 have been released for the first time.
"Our current overseas project reserves are about about 800000000000 yuan and more than 2000 contracts. We have a holding investment, and a small proportion of the capital, BOT, EPC and other ways, "Li Yanming, deputy general manager of China Electric Construction Group Co., Ltd. told reporters," but EPC is not big, the total contract is much more. We have cooperation with policy banks and commercial banks. At present, there are the most forms of bank financing through overseas loans such as "two excellent" loans.
Zhao Ping, director of the International Trade Research Department of the China National Trade Promotion Institute, said in an interview with the reporter that countries along the road along the road, especially some countries, have a large demand for funds, such as South Africa, Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries, with poor infrastructure and the development of their infrastructure. Key tasks. In these infrastructure fields, the competitiveness of the private enterprises is insufficient. At present, it is the direct investment of the central enterprises to drive the private enterprises, and the private enterprises have become the suppliers of the required equipment and commodities, and they have joined the infrastructure construction of the "one along the road" initiative.
Introduction of civil capital
"Investment in the infrastructure sector is an important part of the 'along the road' initiative. From the initial coax to the present reason, we have found the importance of solving the financing problem. Especially in less developed and developing countries, the demand for financing by overseas investment enterprises in these countries is more urgent. If we guide social capital into infrastructure investment, I think there will be greater demand in these countries. Feng Baiwen, global chairman of KPMG Global China business development center, said (Vaughn Barber).
However, the investment risk of the country along the road along the road is high, the investment return cycle of infrastructure construction is long, the investment enthusiasm of private enterprises and how to attract private enterprises to participate in the "one way" infrastructure investment are the focus of the industry.
According to the world bank's annual report on private capital participation in infrastructure in 2017, the total infrastructure construction of private capital investment in 2017 was $93 billion 300 million, at a level of second low in 10 years, only higher than in 2016. Inactive social capital is a painful point in the global infrastructure market.
"The overseas investment of the private enterprises is generally the acquisition of mineral resources, or the export of their own products by investing overseas projects, more to make up the market for the local market, and to do very little investment directly in the infrastructure."
"At present, private enterprises participate in the 'one way' initiative, which usually invest in the establishment of industrial parks. On the one hand, the local market is seen, the prices of the near supply products are more competitive and the Chinese brands go out. On the other hand, the local factor costs, such as the relatively low cost of land and labor power, are relatively low. The effective allocation of resources and the competitiveness of products will be achieved in the process of going out. Zhao Ping said.
Feng Baiwen believes that the amount of money that private capital can provide now is relatively large globally. However, these capital holders will make a choice after evaluating the return rate of the project cycle. Because many infrastructure projects, investment in the early stage is very large, how to allow capital holders to see return on investment is a very important factor. If relevant government agencies intervene, they are more willing to see whether there will be a number of contracts published, only in this way, they are likely to consider the impact of long-term risks and make new investment decisions in the return of investment.
Speaking of the risk of overseas investment, Zhao Ping believes that it is mainly four aspects: one is political risk, political instability, and regime change; two is the social risk, such as the opposition of local social organizations and religious organizations in the investment process; three is the economic risk, investment in the country's foreign capital examination, access, operation, related spare parts and other lines The standard of industry, as well as the comprehensive risk of high cost of financing and the long cycle of investment recovery; four is the legal risk, not only the degree of familiarity with different national laws, but also the change of the legal environment in the process of investment.
Financing is the core of the "one way and one way" in the interconnected level. It is very important to build a multi-level capital platform and build a diversified investment and financing network. Many financial institutions also welcome more social capital investment infrastructure.
