Machinery industry view: (1) construction machinery: excavators increased by 58.8% in June, and the industry continued to recover. According to the data of Construction Machinery Industry Association, the sales volume of excavators in June 2018 was 14 thousand, an increase of 58.8% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate was basically the same as that of last month. Among them, 31 sales growth rate is 84%, leading enterprises' growth rate is significantly higher than the market average growth rate, concentration degree is expected to maintain continuous improvement. We think that the cycle of the upper wheel is different from the cycle logic of the local cycle: the cycle of the upper wheel is 08-11 years and there is a state 4 trillion investment strong catalysis, the cycle has a renewal factor (8-10 years of the product cycle), and the environmental requirements are severely affected, and the engineering machinery products have also increased the market demand in the continuous renewal and intangible. This round of cycle recovery began in July 16, the industry continues to recover better. It is suggested that Sany and Hengli hydraulic pressure should be paid attention to. (2) automotive electronics: the power battery industry is developing rapidly, and the competitiveness of new energy vehicles is growing. Driven by policy and market driven, the market for new energy vehicles and power batteries has been developing rapidly. The development of EV has highlighted the coexistence of tight supply and overcapacity in the battery market. This is mainly due to the shortage of high-end electric vehicle batteries and overcapacity in the low end market. Therefore, the development of new energy vehicles can not be separated from battery technology breakthroughs. At the same time, batteries are also the key to enhance competitiveness of new energy vehicles. This requires domestic manufacturers to increase R & D efforts to improve the performance of automotive products. It is suggested that the key focus on Ke Lai mechatronics and British beating. (3) lithium-ion equipment: domestic and foreign manufacturers active layout, lithium battery business continues to increase. At home and abroad, the domestic and foreign manufacturers continue to arrange the lithium electric equipment business, speed up the development and production of lithium electric equipment, the Ningde era and the Dongfeng Automobile Joint Venture power battery factory was completed and put into production. The Shanghai Pu Tai launched the lithium battery diaphragm business. The Chilean production promotion Committee will build the first lithium electric technology center in Chile. Domestic lithium ion equipment manufacturers should actively research and develop, improve product safety performance, respond to market opportunities and challenges. It is suggested that we should focus on pilot intelligence, win win technology, and Ke Heng shares. (4) oil service: oil price shocks rise, oil service companies benefit. Saudi Arabia and Russia have become the main power of the OPEC and non OPEC groups to affect production capacity, only Saudi Arabia and Russia have the ability to increase crude oil capacity, and other countries' capacity to increase capacity is weak. Oil prices will escalate in the international environment where the US sanctions against Iran escalate and the demand for crude oil continues to grow. Oil prices remained high, oil companies' capital expenditure increased and oil companies' profitability improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the shares of Jerry and Tong Yuan oil.
Last week's market review: the mechanical equipment plate index fell 4.82% last week (2018.7.2-2018.7.6) of the mechanical equipment industry index fell 4.82%, run by the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index 0.67 percentage points, run transmission China certificate 500 index 0.59 percentage points, run the gem index 0.75 percentage points, the overall performance in 28 industries is seventeenth. The 1 rising industry is national defense (0.54%); the rest of the 27 sectors have fallen, and the 5 biggest falls are -7.29%, -7.05%, -6.36%, -6.27% and -5.85%.
Risk analysis: 1, domestic investment in fixed assets is not expected, resulting in lower investment in the middle reaches of the middle reaches of machinery and equipment, making the mechanical plate order and performance growth rate less than expected. 2, the policy of landing in key areas is lower than expected, resulting in slower growth in downstream industries and insufficient investment in machinery and equipment in the middle reaches.
